Everyone's Going Broke in 2007

[wins_pot]

So, at this point, I've spent a good bit of time with Chen/Ankenman's The Mathematics of Poker. I've toyed around with some of their Risk of Ruin models, and I can't espape a conclusion that I was leaning towards before I read their book.....2007 is the year everyone goes broke.

Here are some of the general arguments.....
1. The funnel up effect is over.
For the past few years, the poker economy has benefited from a huge amount of money deposited in online sites. This flood of deposits is over. The flood allowed two things to happen....
-a lot of players were able to make a healthy but not impressive sum playing low and mid stakes.
-some players were able to make a huge amount of money. these players played high stakes and won money from lesser players who moved up from low/mid stakes to high stakes after a good run.
2. Online, it's widely agreed that the quality of play has gotten higher for each level of stakes.
3. This year will see a lot of online players moving to the B+M world. The mid- to high-stakes games should get tougher in places like Vegas and LA.
4. Taxes. The IRS has made it a priority to tax poker tournament wins (see 2p2 magazine this month).
5. TV poker isn't that cool anymore. WPT ratings are on a steady downtrend. It's true that the #players/event hasn't gone down, but I would content that the # of truly bad players per event has gone down (w/ the Northeast tournaments as a possible exception).
6. WSOP. huge fields, all payout at final table. The WSOP is a major killer of poker bankrolls. 9% juice in addition to wealth concentration.
7. Expenses. Most poker players spend a huge amount of money.
8. Playing too high. The availability of huge stakes is tempting a lot of players to play too high relative to their bankroll.
9. Variance. Most people dramatically underestimate their risk of ruin, especially if they are drawing living expenses from their poker bankroll.

Brandon

[Anders]

WAY COOL DUDE

[NNNNOOOOONAN]

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[AJackson]

Interesting points. I've always thought these huge tournaments concentrated too much money in the winners pocket and took it out of the poker economy. No matter how bad a player Jamie Gold is, most that money isn't coming back.

Personally, I think enough money will continue to flow into the poker sites to maintain a reasonably profitable environment.

[HERE_2_gamble_]

I went busto before 2007.
Euro sites are still juicy tho..
Shame im broke.

[SlowHabit]

How much is considered an "impressive sum?"

[Ray Of Light]

[ QUOTE ]

Euro sites are still juicy tho..


[/ QUOTE ]

Yep...

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

[ QUOTE ]
WAY COOL DUDE

[/ QUOTE ]

Before you just flame away like some kind of dck, wins_pot is Brandon Adams, not just some random donk.

[tboss888]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
WAY COOL DUDE

[/ QUOTE ]

Before you just flame away like some kind of dck, wins_pot is Brandon Adams, not just some random donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

who?

[ActionFreak]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
WAY COOL DUDE

[/ QUOTE ]

Before you just flame away like some kind of dck, wins_pot is Brandon Adams, not just some random donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are coming off as more of a dick then Anders IMO. calm down