AQo vs. LAG and LP

CrMenace · #1 02-07-2007, 01:01 PM

SB was very laggy, especially pf -- he had raised 5 of the 15 hands we had played against each other so far.
Button was loose and somewhat passive 50/11/1 over 44 hands 

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 5 folds, Button calls, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero caps, Button calls, SB calls.

 As laggy as SB has been, I figured to be way ahead of his range with AQo. Hence the cap. 

Flop: (13 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, SB calls, Hero calls.

 I raised as I thought I was somewhat likely to be ahead -- and I wanted to lose the Button. Once button raised, I knew I was in bad shape. Still - getting 21:1, I figured I needed to call. 

Turn: (11 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, SB calls, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, SB calls, Hero calls.

 This is probably the street worthy of the most debate. I figured the flop raise was Jx or a FD often enough that I might very likely be ahead here. 

River: (20 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, SB raises (0.375 BB all-in) , Hero calls, Button calls.

 SB raise is clearly a stack-off, so I call 1.4 BB the same as 1BB 

Final Pot: 24.12 BB

davelin · #2 02-07-2007, 01:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
SB was very laggy, especially pf -- he had raised 5 of the 15 hands we had played against each other so far

[/ QUOTE ]

Sample size. You'd need more specific information before making a statement like this just purely on stats.

Big Folder · #3 02-07-2007, 01:11 PM

give button's passivity you are probably way behind here. The pot is enormous, but I dont think calling down is ok here.

I think the turn raise was fine. You improved to top pair and a raise will be for value if you are ahead. If you are behind a passive player might simply call your raise and you can still draw to two pair or better. When he raises you can consider a fold. He likely has a set. May sound crazy but what about raise/folding the turn?

At the least, I think a turn call and a c/f the river would be another line. You are likely way behind here.

CrMenace · #4 02-07-2007, 01:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
give button's passivity you are probably way behind here. The pot is enormous, but I dont think calling down is ok here.

I think the turn raise was fine. You improved to top pair and a raise will be for value if you are ahead. If you are behind a passive player might simply call your raise and you can still draw to two pair or better. When he raises you can consider a fold. He likely has a set. May sound crazy but what about raise/folding the turn?

At the least, I think a turn call and a c/f the river would be another line. You are likely way behind here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually considered c/r/f here. Perhaps a b/f is the better strategy.

Once I call the turn, I don't think I'm laying down the river.

CrMenace · #5 02-07-2007, 01:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SB was very laggy, especially pf -- he had raised 5 of the 15 hands we had played against each other so far

[/ QUOTE ]

Sample size. You'd need more specific information before making a statement like this just purely on stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many times have you raised pf 5 times in 1.5 orbits in full ring?

Sure, there is a chance they are all strong hands, but the higher likelihood is that villain is laggy.

You and I have discussed sample sizes before. For a more interesting discussion, pretend my sample size was large enough. Now what would you do?

davelin · #6 02-07-2007, 03:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SB was very laggy, especially pf -- he had raised 5 of the 15 hands we had played against each other so far

[/ QUOTE ]

Sample size. You'd need more specific information before making a statement like this just purely on stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many times have you raised pf 5 times in 1.5 orbits in full ring?

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously? Many times.

threads13 · #7 02-07-2007, 03:58 PM

I agree with Dave's comments about the laggy read. Now I am going to pick on the read on as the other as LP. Loose, sure. I don't think I would call this guy passive with a 11% PFR% and a 1 on AF. I am sure you know how AF can be misleading when someone plays a lot of hands.

If you didn't have the limper in there, I would be more ok with the cap.

I don't see much of a problem with the rest. I am thinking the button has something like a good Jx, QJ for two-pair, or maybe JJ(discounted).

tyler_cracker · #8 02-07-2007, 04:19 PM

this thread is very [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img].

preflop cap is e-z. we have position on a guy who looks LAGgy and there is a third guy in the pot playing 50% of his hands. cap for value!

flop raise is good. we could still have the best hand and our equity increases substantially if button folds.

now things go pear-shaped.

that turn c/r is spew-tacular. Button isn't all that passive (AF of 1 when you play 50% of your hands is sort of neutral), but he just 3bet *two* preflop raisers on the flop. just call the turn.

since you didn't, i really want to fold to the turn 3bet. we're getting 19:2 == 9.5:1, so we need like 4.5 outs. i don't think our 5-outer is good nearly that often because Button has a set a lot and we are drawing dead when he does. i guess it's close, but there's no reason you should be in this situation in the first place.

CrMenace · #9 02-07-2007, 04:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SB was very laggy, especially pf -- he had raised 5 of the 15 hands we had played against each other so far

[/ QUOTE ]

Sample size. You'd need more specific information before making a statement like this just purely on stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many times have you raised pf 5 times in 1.5 orbits in full ring?

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously? Many times.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're impossible. How many is "many?"

Which do you think is really more likely -- that he hit a streak of hot cards or that he is a LAG? Sure, my read may have been wrong, but much more likely it was right. We have to make due with small sample sets all the time in poker.

davelin · #10 02-07-2007, 05:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

How many times have you raised pf 5 times in 1.5 orbits in full ring?

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously? Many times.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're impossible. How many is "many?"

Which do you think is really more likely -- that he hit a streak of hot cards or that he is a LAG? Sure, my read may have been wrong, but much more likely it was right. We have to make due with small sample sets all the time in poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying it's a regular occurance but it happens frequently enough. You get a streak of good cards, you get more opportunities to blind steal or iso-raise a loose player, etc. With what degree of regularity I can't say. But someone smarter than me could tell you at what band of confidence someone who raises 12-15% of hands will hit a streak of 15 cards where he raises 5 or more.

Also you seem to be making a generalization of both pre-flop and post-flop play based on one statistic. LAGs like all players come in all shapes and sizes, there are some who play very aggresively post-flop but very reasonably post-flop.

If you had a single case or two of something that would confirm the read, that would be more helpful. For example I saw Villain 3-bet Q4o after a pre-flop raiser and a cold-calling or raise 33 in the SB after 4 limpers or something like that. Given your only statement of SB, it's hard to accurately determine his range.