Where is the smart/sharp money going on the SB?

[FeltBelt]

Just wondering ...

[rwesty]

If you're going to make a post like this at least give us some insight of your own with analysis of both teams along with lines/spreads from the sportsbooks. Then we can take your conclusion and fade it and probably make money in the long run... although if you were actually making a decent OP there would be less of a chance that fading would be correct.

[FeltBelt]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to make a post like this at least give us some insight of your own with analysis of both teams along with lines/spreads from the sportsbooks. Then we can take your conclusion and fade it and probably make money in the long run... although if you were actually making a decent OP there would be less of a chance that fading would be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

K, I was just curious, not trying to start a debate. I took the Colts at -6.5, but that means nothing since I know very little about sports betting and just wanted a little action on the game. All I want to know is where the sharp money is going, because I don't know what to really make of this SB.

Not everything has to be a flamewar on here, jesus.

[Oatmeal]

[ QUOTE ]


Not everything has to be a flamewar on here, jesus.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow I'd expect a statement like that form someone w/ <100 posts...

[dankhank]

it's going into the hundreds of different prop bets available

some i did today:
grossman zero interceptions +220
manning zero interceptions +155
manning over 269.5 passing yards -115
no safety -1000

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
Just wondering ...

[/ QUOTE ]

if you're looking for a bears/colts side, I doubt there is a 'smart' side. This game is picked over so much that the line becomes semi-strong efficient.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
semi-strong efficient.

[/ QUOTE ]

Get that finance crap outta here. Everyone knows it all about picking winnas.

[trixtrix]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just wondering ...

[/ QUOTE ]

if you're looking for a bears/colts side, I doubt there is a 'smart' side. This game is picked over so much that the line becomes semi-strong efficient.

[/ QUOTE ]

actually this is not necessarily true in this instance

this is b/c sb being the biggest nfl event of the year and therefore the public money from recreational gamblers/action junkies far outweigh the sharp money, relative to some meaningless game like san fran vs. tampa in week 16 (the only ones moving the line on that game are die-hard fans and sharps)

therefore, the current line should still have theoretical value creating from the massive pool of funds inefficiently wielded by square public, ind -240 ml is a good example of value created by public hammering dog ml.

the really sharp sides would be something like chi +7.5 -115/ +7 even, or ind -5.5.

i also like to quickly thank king yao for his great playoff odds analysis, since i still have 100$ pending at +1200 for ind to win the superbowl since the first round of playoffs. he stated (correctly) something like afc teams should be favored over the given odds to win sb being that their spread vs. nfc will be larger, since to arrive at miami, they have to go thru 2/3 of back-then strongest ranked teams in the nfl

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
this is b/c sb being the biggest nfl event of the year and therefore the public money from recreational gamblers/action junkies far outweigh the sharp money, relative to some meaningless game like san fran vs. tampa in week 16 (the only ones moving the line on that game are die-hard fans and sharps)


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm no football handicapper by any stretch of the imagination. But this line is whacked. The Peyton Manning factor is way overdone and the line is simply too damn wide.

The best and juiciest lines of the year in baseball are in the playoffs for exactly the reasons you state. The public falls in love with something. Something they know and hear about all the time like the Yankees or in this case Peyton Manning. Therefore these big marquee games more often than not offer up way more edge than typical games during the season. A friend of mine just came back from Miami on Friday and he said the Manning/Colts hype was running rampant down there. Getting 7 points on a neutral field for the team with the better record and the way better points scored/points allowed ratio is a gift with tremendous value.

[Thremp]

Too handicappers... Neither talking about their A game sport... With conflicting opinions. Interesting.


I'll have to think more about the playoffs in general.