2 Pair - Berate me for ignoring a read

[22pajo]

Limit: $0.50/$1
8 players

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4.5SB, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB caps</font>, Hero calls.
<font color="blue">villain played too many hands and usually passively pre and post flop so his flop c/r lead me to believe he had flopped a made hand but despite the read i bet agressively on the flop. After he caps i'm calling hoping to hit a full house</font>

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6.25BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.
<font color="blue"> i'm happy enough with the turn call after picking up a FD </font>

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8.25BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, Hero ???

Is the pot big enough to justify a call here with 2 Pair?
Was even the blind steal preflop worth it with QTo?

[DrModern]

The blind steal pre is not bad. When he check-raises the flop, there are still enough hands that you beat (i.e. Kx) that you can definitely call. Given your read, doing so might be slightly better than 3-betting. When he caps the flop, I expect him to have J9 or AJ a lot, but maybe also KQ or KT.

The turn call is fine. Not sure you're good 10% of the time on the river here given the flop action. It's close between calling and folding, though I tend to think folding is superior.

[22pajo]

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Not sure you're good 10% of the time on the river here given the flop action.

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Why do i have to be good here 10% of the time?

[Absolution]

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Not sure you're good 10% of the time on the river here given the flop action.

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Why do i have to be good here 10% of the time?

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9.25-1 = ~10%

[22pajo]

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9.25-1 = ~10%

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So what estimate do you give my winning chances?

[Absolution]

Think of a range of hands he could play this way and work it out.

[threads13]

I think I just call this guy's flop c/r. With bottom two-pair and a drawy board, a lot of turn cards can hurt you. On the turn you have a 2nd nut FD and a draw to a FH. I am not ever folding this river though.

[DrModern]

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I am not ever folding this river though.

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Even given the flop cap? Perhaps if you just called the flop check-raise a river call would be in order, but as played?

[dlorc]

When he caps that flop I estimate your chances of winning this hand at about the same odds as you hitting another Q or T [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I think calling the flop is a better approach than threebetting and c/c the turn, you can open fold the river if he leads again.

[bravos1]

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When he caps that flop I estimate your chances of winning this hand at about the same odds as you hitting another Q or T [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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so 4/47 = 8.5%

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I think calling the flop is a better approach than threebetting and c/c the turn, you can open fold the river if he leads again.

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Now we're getting 9.25:1 to call. We only need to be correct 9.7%, so I think even using your analysis (guesstimate), it is pretty close.