overcalls on the turn ???

[Little_blue]

Playing a looose 3-6 game in AC.
Players are all loose and for the most part passivie averaging 5 to 6 plalyers perflop and one pot is rasied ever 20 hands or so (unless I'm raising).

I'm on the button with 66.

4 players limp, I limp and the blinds complete.

7 players 7 sb
Flop
K Q 7 rainbow.

everyone k including me.

3 big bets to the turn.
Turn is a 6 putting 2 hearts on the boared
K Q 7 6 (with 2 hearts)
everyone checks to the cut off who bets. Now do I rais my trips and protect this kind of large pot (at least it was on the flop???) or do I check and go for overcalls with a bit of a monster hand.

I just called and every one else called (got to love it).

River has 7 players and 10 BB.

River is a T
K Q 7 6 T

everyone K to the CO who again bets, Here I think its easier as I go for the over calls and just call (beginnning to fear the AJ or 89.

Any comments apreaciated. thanks.

[W. Deranged]

You should definitely raise here.

This is not a great spot for going for overcalls. As it is, it's not that likely anyone has a made hand even as good as, say, QT, as all of the early position players have checked twice. Those are the hands you'd like to see overcalling on this turn. While calling will get some overcalls from, maybe, mid-pairs or Ax, many of the overcalls will be coming from gutshots and flush draw. Gutshots aren't getting odds immediately, but they might be getting close if you get an overcall or two before them. Flush draws are getting odds to overcall, and aren't folding, so we might charge them to draw (and even maybe make it incorrect for some of them to call).

Calling just gives away value here. The only times that calling even consistently gets more money in the pot are times like the ones you experienced, in which case you are giving odds to some hands that you could have cut down. Remember: you only need half the people to call two bets than would have overcalled one to get as much money in by raising, and generally with higher equity.

[tewall]

You have to raise the turn to protect your hand. It's not a close decision. There are lots of cards that can beat you here. It would be a disaster to lose the pot to someone who would have folded to two bets, but calls one. If they don't fold, that's good for you too. Overcalls only (possibly) gain you some percentage of a bet, but not raising potentially loses the pot.

You can legitimately think about overcalls on the river, since there aren't any more cards to come. On the turn, if you really did have a monster, like a full house or quads, where you'd still be ahead if someone caught their draw, you could think about overcalls.

[Little_blue]

A further question. If the turn had not had 2 hearts (been reainbow)...would it now be right to go for and overcall???

[JJH3984]

Raise for value. people will call two and it might get threebet.

[tewall]

Your overall EV will be the size of the pot * the probability you win it. If you overcall, it's debatable that the pot will be larger. As JJH3984 points out, people will often call two, and someone could even raise. It's not clear that the pot will actually be larger if you overcall.

OTOH if you overcall, there's no question you are lowering your chance of winning the pot, as, for example, you are keeping in the 2 and 4 out draws that would have folded to a raise.

So, in summary, in order to the overcall to be correct, the raising the size of the pot part has to overshadow the lowering your chance of winning the pot part. Usually this won't be the case (because either your hand won't be so strong that it doesn't mind giving people a chance to draw against it, or because people will call even if you raise)