I feel like a fish calling this river..

Joga Bonito · #1 01-19-2007, 05:05 PM

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, 7 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: (13.70 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15.70 BB

I know the pot is huge.. But anyone in there right mind is gonna guess 2 pair at the least after he 3-bets this turn right?

Big Folder · #2 01-19-2007, 05:10 PM

you need to raise this flop first of all. You have TPTK. Unless you have a read on BB that he never ever, even once(i mean NEVER!) bets out into a raiser without an absolute monster should you call this. Even then its probably completely wrong since even if you knew for sure he had 2pair on the flop you would still raise to draw for a free card(if he's passive).

Waiting till the turn screws this up. He could have AQ, AJ, and think you turn raise is crap and 3-bet you. If you raised the flop you'd be betting for value and you'd have a better idea what he's thinking.

As played you should call this river, you have TPTK and BB has shown strength but its not enough for me to think "holy poop, I'm totally screwed I need to bail." If BB is mega passive and you pulled this line on him and he 3-bet you then I'd call the turn and fold the river unimproved. But your read would have to be pretty good on him. If he has crazy ways then you simply call.

Joga Bonito · #3 01-19-2007, 05:16 PM

My reasoning for only calling the flop was that I assumed I had the best hand w/ TPTK, so I wanted the original raiser to continue his aggression, I felt like the flop was safe enough to let another card come.

Is this flawed? It seems to work very well for the most part.

Big Folder · #4 01-19-2007, 05:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My reasoning for only calling the flop was that I assumed I had the best hand w/ TPTK, so I wanted the original raiser to continue his aggression, I felt like the flop was safe enough to let another card come.

Is this flawed? It seems to work very well for the most part.

[/ QUOTE ]

One thing you have to realize is that even without an obvious straight or flush draw out there(note: there is some connectivity on this board. If someone had 75 they hit their straight. You need to bet when you have the edge), people can still be drawing. If someone has an Ace with a weaker kicker they are drawing to beat you with 3 outs. If someone has mid or bottom pair they have 5 outs to improve. If you are ahead you raise in this situation. Your hand is too strong not to raise on this board and you will punish people trying to draw to two pair or better.'

While you say you raise here most of the time(which is good) don't worry about mixing up your play at the micro levels. You can raise AK 100% of the time preflop and when a A or K comes (and you pretty much should) and nobody is going to really respect it. Just bet for value plain and simple. When you move up to some challenging games then you might need to work in some deception. Still not raising in those games 20% of the time with TPTK in this situation is probably giving up too much value for deception purposes. You certainly shouldn't give up that much value at these limits. jack that baby up!

Joga Bonito · #5 01-19-2007, 05:42 PM

Thanks for the Replies Big_Folder, and everyone else.
I don't really have many reads at the micro-levels because I'm not playing with the same players for more than 200-300 hands at a time. I notice rather quickly who the loosey goosey's are and who never plays a hand. Beyond that they all play similar.

Thanks everyone.

Big Folder · #6 01-19-2007, 05:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the Replies Big_Folder, and everyone else.
I don't really have many reads at the micro-levels because I'm not playing with the same players for more than 200-300 hands at a time. I notice rather quickly who the loosey goosey's are and who never plays a hand. Beyond that they all play similar.

Thanks everyone.

[/ QUOTE ]

200-300 hands is plenty to get poker tracker reads, but what you can get within even a couple of hands is the persons general demeanor. Like i said, if you see a guy limp with AK, flop TPTK and call down all the way he's passive. If you see someone seeing turns and rivers with any pair he's loose. If someone slowplays the flop and c/r the turn you have a decent read on him already.

Looking at specific hands people play can give you a decent read within 5-10 hands if you see their showdowns enough.

bung · #7 01-19-2007, 08:11 PM

200-300 hands should be enough to give you a read on at least some of the players. How does the table play in general? If they play the same, what did some of the players showdown once they 3-bet the turn?

Raise flop and play your TP fast. If bet into on the turn, if the player is is overly aggressive, call and raise the river.

Befolder · #8 01-19-2007, 05:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My reasoning for only calling the flop was that I assumed I had the best hand w/ TPTK, so I wanted the original raiser to continue his aggression, I felt like the flop was safe enough to let another card come.

Is this flawed? It seems to work very well for the most part.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is nothing wrong with your line OP. You make more by nailing them on the turn than forcing their fold early or getting only an extra SB on the flop.

Occasionally, they will have flopped two pair, but most donks are just betting because they have an ace.

Edit: The long run is the only one that counts and in that, we'll have the best hand here more than 50% on the turn (not considering this turn action)

If it's a known TAG, then the turn raise is less advised.

Joga Bonito · #9 01-19-2007, 06:18 PM

You're the first person to say this. It is how I feel, I can't say that from now one I am not going to use this line. In Micro Limits A-x loves to call down and my AK is very strong. That's why in this spot I played it the way I did..
In the long run.. which is all that matters.. I feel like playing it this way a certain amount of the time based on flop texture is the right move.

Befolder · #10 01-19-2007, 06:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You're the first person to say this. It is how I feel, I can't say that from now one I am not going to use this line. In Micro Limits A-x loves to call down and my AK is very strong. That's why in this spot I played it the way I did..
In the long run.. which is all that matters.. I feel like playing it this way a certain amount of the time based on flop texture is the right move.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was surprised that more didn't Joga. The reponses may have been more varied if you cut off the action after the villain donked the turn again and before you raised. I bet a lot more people would have been fine with it.

Villains did your line on me a ton when I was still donking around and I hated it, but they were right to.

Another decent play if you have a villain who bluffs a lot, but will fold if you raise is just to call every bet to the river, sometimes raising the river. You'll get the most out of those types. A turn raise is usually good for your regular donk who will still call you down after that.