Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to

_Tank_ · #1 01-15-2007, 02:34 PM

For the newbies and semi-newbies:
OK...so the first few shows generally bring out a few "spotlight" contestants who the producers try to pimp. There are already a couple from the commercials that the preteens are gonna start to fawn over. But basically, these people are the worst bets in the beginning. They will be so above their market value in the opening lines its not even funny...see Ace from last year as an example. Opened at I believe 24 last year mostly because of his looks and OK voice.

I beieve the key to turning a profit from the beginning is the voices of the mid-pimped contestants. Last year that was Mandisa, Eliot (didnt really get pimped but he wowed in Hollywood), and of course Taylor. I picked up Taylor at 11 last year and held of for dear life. I believe I got Eliot at 4.

Be very careful judging people on their auditions, as the stage brings a whole new dimenstion to things and some people just cant hack it.

Hope to have some info on specific contestants after tonights show.

Happy watching! :-p

GrannyMae · #2 01-15-2007, 02:47 PM

remember this as well tank.

it is likely the winner will come from someone NOT pimped at all, than pimped.

case(s) in point--> we did not hear fantasia or kelly clarkston until the finals.

the only reason we saw taylor's tryout last year was because the producers thought he would never advance far. he was considered a novelty that would likely not make it to top 12.

in the case of fantasia, they just plain hid her from us..

_Tank_ · #3 01-15-2007, 03:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
remember this as well tank.

it is likely the winner will come from someone NOT pimped at all, than pimped.

case(s) in point--> we did not hear fantasia or kelly clarkston until the finals.

the only reason we saw taylor's tryout last year was because the producers thought he would never advance far. he was considered a novelty that would likely not make it to top 12.

in the case of fantasia, they just plain hid her from us..

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey GM,

I dunno if I would use the word "likely." AI has become so huge that the fanbase has begun to act like sheep and just followed the herd. America likes something shoved down their throats, and the producers have done a much better job lately in showing us who we "should" vote for early on.

What the producers thought about taylor in the beginning is irrelevant. They gave him face time and even kind of played him up as an underdog, which the voting public ate up. Throw in a little talent and you have the winner.

Fact is, with the exception of Eliot, I believe most of, if not all, of the top 10 last year had their audition featured. I think the winner will likely come out of a featured audition, just not one of the "this is the next coming of Whitney Houston" type of things like how the judges fawned over Paris last season.

private joker · #4 01-15-2007, 06:00 PM

FWIW, in season 4, all the promos for the very first episode featured Carrie Underwood in that cute pink shirt singing her butt off. I watched the first round of auditions for her, saw her, and picked her to win. They rode that pony the whole way and it paid off. Too bad I don't bet on this. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Death Valley · #5 01-18-2007, 09:49 AM

All I know is that this seasons winner isnt from Seattle of Minneapolis

GrannyMae · #6 01-19-2007, 09:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
All I know is that this seasons winner isnt from Seattle of Minneapolis

[/ QUOTE ]

hiya rollaJ!!

i have not read the other threads yet, but i sure see the indian boy in top 12. also, if producers feel that it would make for good TV, they will manipulate it so the boy AND his sister are top 12 (maybe top 2).

it is, of course, too early. but these are the 2 that are twitching my idol radar.

of course, we have not seen the winner, as there have been no southern audition shows.

TimTimSalabim · #7 01-22-2007, 07:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
remember this as well tank.

it is likely the winner will come from someone NOT pimped at all, than pimped.

case(s) in point--> we did not hear fantasia or kelly clarkston until the finals.

the only reason we saw taylor's tryout last year was because the producers thought he would never advance far. he was considered a novelty that would likely not make it to top 12.

in the case of fantasia, they just plain hid her from us..

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that's generally true. Fantasia was the exception. I seem to recall there was lots of focus on Clay/Ruben, McPhee, and Underwood and other major contenders well before the finals, including their first audition for most of them. And I didn't see the first season, but in AI Rewind, Clarkson is also in it plenty early on, unless they edited that in for the Rewind show.

mynamewastaken · #8 01-22-2007, 07:40 PM

I watched the 1st season after I saw the 2nd, 3rd and 4th, and I remember being shocked how late you see Kelly. I can't remember if you see her first audition anymore, but beyond that she is barely mentioned until the top 10. Then she comes out of nowhere and when it's down to 7 or 8 she's told she can win it by the judges.

TimTimSalabim · #9 01-22-2007, 08:00 PM

I don't think they attempted to hide Clarkson, I think that it was just that her early performances weren't that impressive.

In more recent history, McPhee and Underwood were both very impressive in their first auditions, but they made no attempt to hide them, in fact, they put quite a bit of attention on them.

revots33 · #10 01-20-2007, 12:38 PM

So far I like the NY Giant football player's daughter and that's it.

Indian boy was alright but not nearly as good as Elliott last year singing Stevie Wonder.

Black guy with afro, 6'7" girl, Shakira wannabe, female auto-shop worker, navy guy, all have no chance IMO.

"Crack baby" did not sing as well as the football player daughter girl, but she's got a good backstory and seems likeable so maybe.