Kiss the profit margin goodbye?

[domer2]

Sour grapes, true, but the market for betting American Idol isn't exactly large. How exactly are you all, as a collective group, expecting to make money when you teach the majority of the market to be "sharps"?

It's like if you have two sports bettors, and you know one is profitable and one is not. The one who has the bigger mouth is, more often than not, the square. The guy who is making money knows not to talk about the fact that he is making money.

Just my two cents, but I fail to see the wisdom in creating this forum.

[domer2]

As an addendum to this topic, and it's probably important enough for a new post instead of an edit, let me say this...

How is it that you think books set American Idol lines? I know who sets the entertainment type lines at Pinnacle, and I know he reads forums to gauge the public in setting lines.

So if you think you are getting an implicit advantage through your collective knowledge, I think what you are actually doing is giving the edge to the savvy sportsbooks, whose line setter is just sitting here reading what you are going to be betting on. And the unsavvy sportsbooks either have limits so low that it's irrelevent or just copycat the Pinnacle lines.

They will recognize what you are pinpointing as the favorite (or whatever it is), and manipulate the lines to reflect this.

They're in this for a business, not to lose money. They will catch on EXCEEDINGLY fast, especially if you are posting all of your information in a public forum entitled "American Idol Wagering."

Again, just the two cents of someone who has been doing this for a long, long time.

[GrannyMae]

[ QUOTE ]
As an addendum to this topic, and it's probably important enough for a new post instead of an edit, let me say this...

How is it that you think books set American Idol lines? I know who sets the entertainment type lines at Pinnacle, and I know he reads forums to gauge the public in setting lines.

So if you think you are getting an implicit advantage through your collective knowledge, I think what you are actually doing is giving the edge to the savvy sportsbooks, whose line setter is just sitting here reading what you are going to be betting on. And the unsavvy sportsbooks either have limits so low that it's irrelevent or just copycat the Pinnacle lines.

They will recognize what you are pinpointing as the favorite (or whatever it is), and manipulate the lines to reflect this.

They're in this for a business, not to lose money. They will catch on EXCEEDINGLY fast, especially if you are posting all of your information in a public forum entitled "American Idol Wagering."

Again, just the two cents of someone who has been doing this for a long, long time.

[/ QUOTE ]


you make some GREAT points. let me address just a couple of them tho.

1. the initial lines are set withOUT the prevailing wisdom of this place being a factor, so there are deep discounts at the beginning.

2. for the entire season, there were 3 camps at least. therefore, the existence of vocal daughtry & mchpee camps decidedly added to my profits.

if it were black and white on who was going to win from the final 12 onward (which i beleive only happened in season one), then your comments would hold much more significance.

bottom line... the camps were split to the very last weeks, and this made for bigger margins, not less. this is 2p2, there will NEVER be a consensus. half these donks bet with their dicks.

my .02

[hoff21]

[ QUOTE ]


this is 2p2, there will NEVER be a consensus. half these donks bet with their dicks.



[/ QUOTE ]


Quote of the year

[Sigurd]

[ QUOTE ]


this is 2p2, there will NEVER be a consensus. half these donks bet with their dicks.



[/ QUOTE ]
Nice imagery

[Lottery Larry]

This second post seems a bit ironic, given your concerns in the OP.

:P

[Sniper]

Granny commented on most of what you said, but this stood out to me...

[ QUOTE ]
How exactly are you all, as a collective group, expecting to make money when you teach the majority of the market to be "sharps"?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you truly believe that 2+2 represents the majority of the Idol wagering market?

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
Granny commented on most of what you said, but this stood out to me...

[ QUOTE ]
How exactly are you all, as a collective group, expecting to make money when you teach the majority of the market to be "sharps"?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you truly believe that 2+2 represents the majority of the Idol wagering market?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its quite possible. The vast vast majority of idol fans is teenage kids and maybe their mothers. None of whom probably even know its possible to bet on the outcome.

[Artsemis]

Didn't AI have more viewers than the Super Bowl last year on the same week or something? No, AI fans aren't as likely to be bettors as football fans, but the betting market is much larger than you think.

[Mike Haven]

Not quite the same thing, but I'm betting on UK's Celebrity Big Brother's winner, and I notice there has been $3,000,000 bet so far at Betfair, and we're hardly into it yet.