Some Help Thinking This Trough Please.

[R2004]

MTT freeze out, 50 players, 20min. levels, top 10 get paid, but big money is for 1st, 2nd and 3rd. We start with 5k. Some back ground on villain; he got very lucky in a 3 way pot in the first level, called all his money off w/J high flush draw with one card to come, he hit and knocked 2 players out. His raises are always like 5-6 times bb, he comes over the top a lot w/ hands like A,10 K,Q and 77. I have not yet seen him turn over a big hand when he raises big pf. Since his big win he has been bleeding chip. I'm looking for the right hand to come in against him. In the third round, sb is 100 bb is 200. Villain has 12k I have 8k. I have shown down KK, QQ, and top two in the last 40min. UTG calls 200, villain is UTG+1 and calls 200, one fold, I call w/ J10 of D. 3 folds. sb calls 100 bb checks. 5 way action, I have all covered except villain. Flop is Js,Jh,8s. Sb moves all in for 1800k, bb fold utg folds, villain raises to 3600k. What should I be thinking here? Do I put him on flush draw? Could he have a better J? he would also raise w/ A,8 in this spot, or 77, or 99. He knows not what he does. This is the hand I've been waiting for, but something feels bad. I can't just call, if he is on a draw and does not hit I can't get any more $ from him. Any thoughts here?

[qwertyui9]

Given your read on the villain I'd push here. Sounds like he'l call of with any draw here so your not folding out any potential profit. If he has you beat thats tough luck but I'd push and expect to get callled by a lot of worse hands.

I would also not be too concerned with utg if hes a decent player, the only hands that beat us in his range here are AJ and 88 imo and the oberlay the loose player is giving us should make up for it if we lose to utg.

[McMelchior]

[ QUOTE ]
He knows not what he does.

[/ QUOTE ]

You should probably relax. You're post is flowing over with your furor towards villain. A statement like the one above is not well suited for analyzing an other players actions.

As you describe villain he's aggressive, and he wasn't too concerned about getting his chips in with a disadvantage early on (the first level). That's a legit strategy employed by many recreational players - go big or go home early.

You cannot conclude that he should be clueless based on that, and even if you did it doesn't help your hand reading in the actual situation very much.

In the actual hand you have no way of knowing if you're behind neither SB nor villain. Villain could be trying to isolate SB's J with a flush draw, in which case you're a two to one fav if you push (and still giving him correct odds to call). Or he could have any possible combination of J - X, where X could be Q, a K or an 8 to beat you, or a 9 through 2 to give you the advantage.

A lot of people will find it weak/tight, but with 40 BB in my stack I'm probably folding here. Even if you move in and beat villain there's still SB, meaning a good risk your best scenario is losing the main pot and ending up with the side pot of 12,000.

[R2004]

I understand what you are saying. I made that statement a/b him but when I was deciding, I really feared K,J or Q,J. I was giving him credit for a hand. If he had A,J, or 88 he would have raised pf. My statement did not factor into my decision. But would you really fold J,10 here, I though about that option equally w/ pushing. He could just be making the raise with a big range.