quick sat rebuy questions

[markdeeznutz]

Are both of these hands folds? The second hand it was folded around to me. We're about 10 away from the money in $3r turbo sat.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t12000 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO (t78345)
Button (t113799)
SB (t29650)
BB (t63243)
Hero (t67902)
UTG+1 (t29000)
MP1 (t100477)
MP2 (t51800)
MP3 (t55062)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20000 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 (t112199)
CO (t22050)
Button (t53043)
Hero (t46302)
BB (t27400)
UTG (t146877)
UTG+1 (t50200)
MP1 (t53462)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

[omaha]

At this stage, you have to play aggressively, to make it into the top few places, even when you bust out early. Trying to just make the cut is really disastrous (worse than busting out on the bubble) in the long run.

I would tend to raise the aq. Often, people will fold almost anything. If however, everyone was restealing (v unlikely) then i could find a fold. If called, cbet, then give it up if you have zip.

WHen all fold to you in the sb, try this, a fellow 2+2 told me.

Raise 3bb, bet 4bb on flop, rinse, repeat. It works really, really well. Firstly, lets face it, usually in the bb, we have such cruddy cards we are happy to be raised, so we are not involved. Or, we miss the flop, and will cut out losses.

If raised, then just dump. But, hey, you may even spike a set to an overpair, then stack him! Happened to me before!

This idea works well, as long as everyone is not always folding to you, or the bb catches on. But, usually, that will only happen once every three orbits or so, so it isnt a big deal

[nobosox]

unless I'm reading wrong, and I don't think i am, this is a 3r turbo satellite to a $162 or a $215 so I don't think your analysis really applies since top however many places all get the same payout. I don't really ever play those sats so I'll leave the strategy to someone else. Just wanted to point that out.

[jgunnip]

[ QUOTE ]

I would tend to raise the aq. Often, people will fold almost anything. If however, everyone was restealing (v unlikely) then i could find a fold. If called, cbet, then give it up if you have zip.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is horrible strategy. Hero has 5bb here. push/fold.

[ QUOTE ]
Raise 3bb, bet 4bb on flop, rinse, repeat. It works really, really well. Firstly, lets face it, usually in the bb, we have such cruddy cards we are happy to be raised, so we are not involved. Or, we miss the flop, and will cut out losses.

[/ QUOTE ]

dude wtf? he doesn't even have 7bb!!


AQo isn't a bad hand to push in this situation, since you'll get calls from AJ, AT, and in teh case of the small stack any ace. But UTG I fold, just too many people to get through who are not playing optimally (this is a $3r) and that hurts your FE. you don't want to race here.

44 depends on the bb. If he'll call you with any random crap I'd fold. Smallstacks are the worst to push into at these stages of a satalite.

[Cornell Fiji]

To most of the above respondants:
satellite

OP,
Hand 1 is a defnite fold with 10 players to go before the bubble and you having an avg stack.

Hand 2... Is gross. You are getting called 100% of the time because BB is all in on the next hand and you are probably 57% to win against the random hand.

-If you push and win you are going to have 74k and will make the money X% of the time.
-If you push and lose you will have 19k and will make the money Y% of the time.
-If you fold you will have 36k and you will make the money Z% of the time.

Of course the above information is super elementary but I think that it might help someone out there...

With ten people left I am pushing the 44 hand and praying that the BB just folds his 83o



[/ QUOTE ]

Omaha,
Your advice would be terrible for a regular MTT and not a satellite. Both of these hands are clear push/fold spots (andclear push spots) in a regular MTT. A lot of your advice lately has been... well how can I say this delicately... the opposite of what any thinking player should ever do. I think that it might do you best to lurk in this forum for a little while and ask questions of the better posters rather than continuing to give players such clearly bad advice.

Sorry that this sounds really harsh, I just fear that some non-discriminating posters are going to take your advice to heart and then 2p2 will be making them play worse and that does not benefit anyone

[adanthar]

can't answer this question without # left, payouts, other stacks, etc. but 1 looks like a fold/2 could go either way depending on above.

[markdeeznutz]

[ QUOTE ]


With ten people left I am pushing the 44 hand and praying that the BB just folds his 83o



[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt he would fold that, though. After posting, he only had 7k chips left. I thought I would better off saving 17k chips and fold for an orbit (if the bb even makes it back to me). I did open up a few other tables and noticed people playing like donks and still trying to accumulate chips for some reason. There were also a decent amount of low stacks which all led to a fold for me. Is this flawed logic?

[Cornell Fiji]

-If you push and win you are going to have 74k and will make the money X% of the time.
-If you push and lose you will have 19k and will make the money Y% of the time.
-If you fold you will have 36k and you will make the money Z% of the time.

This assumes he always calls.

You will win 57% of the time so if:
.57x+.43y > z you should push.

If not you should fold.

You have to plug in your own X, Y, Z

For me X (getting to 74k) significantly increases your chance of winning and that makes this push worthwhile with 10 people left




[/ QUOTE ]

Your thought process is good but I think that your conclusion might have been wrong.

1) He should absolutely call with 93o type hands which he will have 25% of the time. If he incorrectly folds them 2/5 of the time (keep in mind that players seem to always to the wrong move late in rebuys) then it is huge for you. I don't even consider the possibility for this windfall in my math analysis above

I never finished my above basic thought (must have gotten distracted) I finished it above. It is all about how you weight these scenarios, I think getting to 74k makes you a near lock and that you still have almost 0 fold equity with 36k so the difference between 36k and 19k is not monumental.

I don't think that you are cashing without winning a hand if you have 36k but I think that you can do so with 74k

[McMelchior]

It matters how many tables are left and the size of the low stacks on the other tables. The fewer tables and the bigger low stacks, the more like you should consider pushing both hands. And correspondingly, if there are like 8 tables and like 12 stacks with an M around (or below) 1 they're clear folds.

And it matters what your perception of the players on your table is. If they're good players with a thorough understanding of sat strategy go ahead and push. If they're clueless you're much more likely to be called down and should consider folding at least 44.