PLO50 - dazed and confused

[EvanJC]

i once read/heard/made up someone saying it's never standard to get all in in omaha w/out the nuts. but surely this is standard, right? comments on all streets are welcome - im just learning here. no significant reads on villian


Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $27
UTG+1: $49.30
Hero: $49.25
Button: $23.05
SB: $41.20
BB: $19.50

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($5.25, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $5.25</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($15.75, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $15.75</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $42.25</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB calls all-in $18.45</font>.
Uncalled bets: $8.05 returned to Hero.

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($84.15, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $84.15)


Results:
Final pot: $84.15

god i bet this forum gets sick of hearing about how people are just learning lol

[Jefferson]

People dont bluff like that in small stakes. He has the str8, and after that turn you are a big dog. If the turn would have brought you a flush draw, it would maybe have been a call for the 15 bucks.

[EvanJC]

so at small stakes i should be folding everything but the nuts? that don't seem right =D

can't villian have a lower set here?

[Jefferson]

No. flop call is fine. turn call would be bad, imo.
To my experience small stakes guys dont bet 2nd barrels like that if they are on draws, especially OOP. He has the str8, and you made a bad all-in.

[Silent A]

[ QUOTE ]
so at small stakes i should be folding everything but the nuts? that don't seem right =D

can't villian have a lower set here?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not a question of "can he have a lower set" it's "does he have a lower set often enough for this to be a push"?

Let's assume the best case scenario: he has either a lower set and no redraws or a straight with none of your outs covered (this is pretty dubious, but it's your best case).

It will cost you $34.20 to push for a $84.15 pot. I'm pretty sure there's also supposed to be another $2 or so removed for the rake, but I'll ignore that for now.

Case 1: Villain has lower set. He has 1 out with 40 cards remaining.

EV of push = (1/40)*(-34.2) + (39/40)*(49.95) = +47.85

Case 2: Villain has straight. You have 10 outs with 40 cards remaining.

EV of push = (30/40)*(-34.2) + (10/40)*(49.95) = -13.15

To break even, he needs to have a lower set 13.15/(13.15+47.85) = 0.215 of the time.

If we include the $2 rake, this number increases to 0.23 (not that big a deal).

However, let's give your villain his minimum statistical extra outs. If he has a set, he'll have a flush draw about one in five times at least and he'll usually have some kind of straight draw. A flush draw earns him an extra 7 outs and a straight draw another 3 to 8 (depending on whether or not he has a flush draw). let's say villain has, on average an extra 6 outs besides the quads. Also, let's say that when he has a straight, he probably also has one of your boat cards, leaving you with 9 outs. I'll also include the $2 rake.

Case 1: Villain has lower set. He has 7 outs with 40 cards remaining.

EV of push = (7/40)*(-34.2) + (33/40)*(47.95) = +33.55

Case 2: Villain has straight. You have 9 outs with 40 cards remaining.

EV of push = (31/40)*(-34.2) + (9/40)*(47.95) = -15.70

To break even, he needs to have a lower set 15.7/(15.7+33.55) = 0.32 of the time.

Now consider this: There are 16 ways your opponent could have 89 and 12 ways he coud have 77 or 66. Also, a co-ordinated 89xx is more likely to call a pre-flop raise than a 66xx or 77xx. Further, SB's actions are perfectly compatable with a made straight (vulnerable or protected). Also, at these stakes villains are especially likely to have what they represent. Finally, this is probably not a scenario where a flopped straight is looking to check-raise.

To me this all adds up to villain having the straight more than often enough to justify a fold.

Your main problem is that you have absolutely no extra draws to go with your set.

[EvanJC]

wow. great analysis silent, thanks.

can someone link me to the thread that was mentioned? (or is it in the faq?)

about the nut peddling thing. my stats through my first 7k hands at ploololomahahah i'm running at like 28/10 when i wan't to be somewhere around 40/20. is there any reason to lag it up that much at these stakes? at a typical table?

[EvanJC]

couple of things i thought about in the shower.

i know its stupid to say i want to be bla/chow/meow, but a 40/20 player has to be sooo much harder to play against than a 28/10 nit. but that's only if anybody is actually watching my play and adjusting to it...should i be worried about this at ssplo?

also, what i said about it 'never being 'standard' to put your stack in w/out the nuts in omaha', all the guy meant to say, i think, is that any time you don't have the pure nuts you have to do a ton of hand reading and critical thinking.

bleh, i really like this game but i think its making me a little crazy...

[shpongled]

I disagree with the call flop, fold turn line. This is a weak play IMO, especially when half of the cards in the deck are bad for me, and the odds of filling up on the turn aren't great. I either raise or fold on the flop. If I raise and my opponent reraises, I usually give him credit for the straight, although it depends on the opponent.

A decent number of players at these stakes will always try to checkraise the preflop raiser if they flop the nuts, and bet out if they flop a draw or weaker hand. A player read is imperative here.

[Silent A]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree with the call flop, fold turn line. ... I either raise or fold on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't mean to suggest call flop, fold turn was best. Just that, given the situation on the turn I lean towards a fold. It seems obvious to me that the decision point should have been the flop: push or fold, depending on the player.

[FabledHero]

Terrible flop play. Do yourself a favor and never slowlpay in PLO again.

This flop is really draw heavy, he can easily have a HUGE wrap here, 3456, 789T etc, which means almost any card you see is gonna be bad. Don't give him basically a free card, charge him and hope a harmless card like AKQ267 falls then jam turn again.