AA vs. rock

Ya_Fooboo · #1 02-06-2006, 01:47 PM

Villian here is a 8.5/3.7/3.3 player. Good line/to much action with AA/awful?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG+2 ($67.15)
MP1 ($130.55)
MP2 ($60.16)
MP3 ($41.10)
CO ($114.60)
Button ($40)
SB ($107.45)
BB ($122)
UTG ($115.15)
Hero ($106.85)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, Hero raises to $3.5, 1 fold, MP1 calls $3.50, 3 folds, Button calls $3.50, 2 folds.

Flop: ($12) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $10, MP1 calls $10, Button folds.

Turn: ($32) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $22, MP1 calls $22.

River: ($76) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $30, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $106

beavens · #2 02-06-2006, 01:51 PM

with a high aggression factor, would you see him raising with the best hand?

i'd imagine with 2pr or a set that he's be raising and not just calling.

i would lead the river for 1/2 pot and fold to a raise.

Freerollin` · #3 02-06-2006, 01:54 PM

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with a high aggression factor, would you see him raising with the best hand?

i'd imagine with 2pr or a set that he's be raising and not just calling.

i would lead the river for 1/2 pot and fold to a raise.

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Perfect, no need to add anything else.

Ya_Fooboo · #4 02-06-2006, 02:10 PM

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Perfect, no need to add anything else.

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Sure there is. Let me go through some of it.

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with a high aggression factor, would you see him raising with the best hand?

i'd imagine with 2pr or a set that he's be raising and not just calling.

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Would you raise a set with position here if you think it's likely I don't have much? I would play a set just like he did with position on a drawless board.

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i would lead the river for 1/2 pot and fold to a raise.

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You're folding for $30 more?

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You're getting 3.5:1 on this, and there's a really good chance your Aces are still good.

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Exactly, he threw out a $30 bet knowing that I would have to call with lots of hands here incase I was winning. There's no such thing as odds when you're almost sure you're losing. I'd say this is a bluff MAYBE 5% of the time.

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The way you played it really really looks like a wiffed AK. Villain could be betting this river with a lot of different hands here, many of which you beat.

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Really? So he called down just because it's possible that I have AK? With an 8%VPIP what kind of hand could you put him on that I beat? KK? Probably not. TT and lower? Likely folds the turn and with that aggression factor isn't it likely he wants to find out if his small PP is good before the river?

beavens · #5 02-06-2006, 02:18 PM

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Would you raise a set with position here if you think it's likely I don't have much? I would play a set just like he did with position on a drawless board.

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yes, i will fastplay a set in most cases.

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You're folding for $30 more?

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unless my math is off, villain will have ~70 or so behind him if he raising our 1/2 pot bet.

Ya_Fooboo · #6 02-06-2006, 02:27 PM

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yes, i will fastplay a set in most cases.

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While I do raise when I make a set >90% of the time and you might to, that doesn't mean people who only play pocket pairs do. He wants the bets to keep getting bigger and bigger and OOP obviously you have to try to build the pot yourself and in position you can let the PFR do it for you and that's what I think he was doing.

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unless my math is off, villain will have ~70 or so behind him if he raising our 1/2 pot bet.

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I don't think he'll have $70 behind but that doesn't matter anyways, he has me covered. I started with $106.85. I bet $35.5 so far and the pot is $73(-$3 rake) and my 1/2 pot bet is $36. $35.5+36=$71. So I have $35.3 left over after betting. Obviously, I think, you had my stack size on the river w/o betting...but just in case.

ronitonline · #7 02-06-2006, 02:20 PM

Just to let you know, he could not be bluffing and you could be winning, he could have KJ, J10, AJ, Qx, PP, and thuoght you took a stab then dropped the lead, then he thought maybe his pocket's we're good, he could easily be value betting but still be losing.

Ya_Fooboo · #8 02-06-2006, 02:21 PM

8%VPIP is almost just AK and all pocket pairs. He doesn't have anything close to KJ or JT.

Kyriefurro · #9 02-06-2006, 02:29 PM

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Would you raise a set with position here if you think it's likely I don't have much? I would play a set just like he did with position on a drawless board.

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Then you'd be leaving a bunch of money on the table. Villain has a 3.3 postflop aggression factor He may be tight/weak preflop but once he gets a hand he goes to war. You've bet your hand twice. In doing so you've told him you have a moderately good hand. At very least he's raising/pushing on the turn.

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Exactly, he threw out a $30 bet knowing that I would have to call with lots of hands here incase I was winning. There's no such thing as odds when you're almost sure you're losing. I'd say this is a bluff MAYBE 5% of the time.

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No, he threw out $30 because he didn't have much of a hand and didn't want to risk more incase you called. BTW, I never suggested this was a bluff. It's a bet with a hand that he thinks might be best, but he's not sure of. You only have to be ahead hear 25% of the time (slight less, actually) for calling to be profitable.

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So he called down just because it's possible that I have AK?

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If you've been properly aggressive, yes, easily.

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With an 8%VPIP what kind of hand could you put him on that I beat? KK?

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8% is actually pretty large. Look at it on Pokerstove. Granted, he's going to restrict his range based on the fact that you raised PF, but his range is still wider than you're giving him credit for. Based on his play the range I'd assign him is - AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AQ/AJ/KQ...and maybe KJ/QJ/AT. Even if I leave out the "maybes" you're ahead of 4 of his hands, tied with one, and loose to two. Looks a lot better than the 25% you need to call profitably.

Ya_Fooboo · #10 02-06-2006, 02:51 PM

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You've bet your hand twice. In doing so you've told him you have a moderately good hand. At very least he's raising/pushing on the turn.

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Isn't it very likely that when he gets this passive that he wants to get value out of his set and when he's more aggressive he wants to know if he's beaten or not and raises to find out? IMO this is most likely.

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BTW, I never suggested this was a bluff.

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Replace bluff with slim value bet. He isn't betting TT, AJ here. Why would he? He can't expect me to call w/AK. He might be betting AQ, but he folds that on the flop.

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If you've been properly aggressive, yes, easily.

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I think this is an interesting point you bring up. I don't really remember right now what my table image was and how much I had been raising betting. As I said above I have lots of hands with him and I'm sure he knows that I would never bet AK like this. I turn into a weak/tight SOB on the turn.

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Granted, he's going to restrict his range based on the fact that you raised PF,

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Also it will be more restricted with lots of people to act behind him so his VPIP is probably pocket pairs and AK with it at less than 8% after a raise. So that narrows it down a bunch.