77 Stars 320 Early---Flop Decision

BPA234 · #1 01-04-2007, 04:50 PM

I won a 3-way pot earlier with QQ vs a missed AK and a K8os who had hit top pair on a 8 3 2 flop. The player in this hand is new to the table and I have no reads.

I think the hand is interesting on the flop.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Button (t2990)
Hero (t5870)
BB (t2220)
UTG (t3580)
UTG+1 (t2240)
MP1 (t2420)
MP2 (t2280)
MP3 (t2350)
CO (t2000)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 raises to t80, 3 folds, Hero calls t70, 1 fold.

Flop: (t180) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets t420

Hero?

grafyx · #2 01-04-2007, 04:55 PM

This looks like an easy fold to me after a 2.5x flop bet.

Mr.Poker · #3 01-04-2007, 05:02 PM

This looks like an overpair without a diamond to me. I definitely lead this flop tho and see how he reacts.

As played, I don't know if he folds an overpair to a shove but it might be worth doing the numbers against an overpair with no diamond, AK with a diamond etc, overpair with diamond etc... (sorry no pokerstove atm)

PLaying conservatively I fold. Playing aggro or some kind of read, I might shove. Be interested to see numbers.

grafyx · #4 01-04-2007, 05:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This looks like an overpair without a diamond to me. I definitely lead this flop tho and see how he reacts.

As played, I don't know if he folds an overpair to a shove but it might be worth doing the numbers against an overpair with no diamond, AK with a diamond etc, overpair with diamond etc... (sorry no pokerstove atm)

PLaying conservatively I fold. Playing aggro or some kind of read, I might shove. Be interested to see numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate a shove here because I don't think a player who 2.5x this flop is folding his overpair. We have a big stack in a tourney with a nice slow structure that gives us plenty of time to find better spots than this.

0evg0 · #5 01-04-2007, 05:36 PM

i hate the flop check

i'm looking to 3betshove here and if he just calls the flop, then c/r like any non[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] card besides the K or A and bet/fold turn if it's a K or A non-[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Cornell Fiji · #6 01-04-2007, 05:52 PM

I am normally not one to pass up marginally +cEV spotsn but I think that this is a time where we might want to just let go.

You are 300 bbs deep early in a tournament and you know that the villain is not going to fold to your push. I really hate this spot because I know that we are not behind a made flush and we are probably not against a set therefore we are flipping with most hands. 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is the only hand that we are far behind that could be justified in playing the flop like this if he is thinking on the first level.

If he is on the second level and knows that his overbet might make you push with a hand like yours then you could very well be against a set, an overpair and a diamond or even a made flush...

I normally love my straight flush draws but I just don't like getting it all in here when we are effectively 110 bbs deep and we have a nice 300bb stack.

I would fold but I guess it is marginal either way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Overpair w/no diamond vs. red sevens:

twodimes.net/poker
board 9d 6d 5d
cards --- EV
7d 7h --- 0.524
As Ah --- 0.476

BPA234 · #7 01-04-2007, 06:08 PM

I like checking the flop, because I want to try and get some more information.

BPA234 · #8 01-04-2007, 06:21 PM

I think you either fold or you have have to commit to winning the hand with all the available outs.

s0ballin · #9 01-04-2007, 11:30 PM

i like a raise, calling seems like the worst option, and i think an overpair w/o a diamond is what you're facing
... so you have a lot of outs

Raise.

hamnegger · #10 01-04-2007, 11:54 PM

the check did get him info . he now knows he is either behind and has 14 outs against the overpair(more likely) or he is up against overcards flush draw meaning hes ahead but up against 14 outs. either way the guy probably isnt folding. so the question is do we want the variance of flipping a coin for a large sum of chips. if in a tourney with pros i gamble here but if im in a field where i feel im as good or a bit better than my overall opposition then i muck or flat call and fold on turn if i don't improve because i want to keep the pots small.