Big pot, tough choice...

[NigelSmith]

I think this was a close one -- but I'm not too good at implied odds. Call or fold?

MP1 - 58.3/8.3/0.7
CO - 30.8/1.5/1.0
BB - 53.2/17.0/2.86

Poker Room skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25/$0.5
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 (poster) checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero caps</font>, CO calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (24SB, 6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO 3-bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 caps</font>, Hero...

Not too worried about BB, who would have called that flop with almost any pocket pair. But the two passives coming to life had me putting them on a Jack each, and me drawing to my Kings.

Comments? Was even the first flop bet a spew?

TIA,

Nigel

[jaxUp]

first flop raise is excellent. You can probably drop it here. If you had different position I might say call and fold if it's 2 to you on the turn, but being sandwiched (a Hero sandwich, get it) you can't make that play. Just drop it here I think.

[Befolder]

[ QUOTE ]
first flop raise is excellent. You can probably drop it here. If you had different position I might say call and fold if it's 2 to you on the turn, but being sandwiched (a Hero sandwich, get it) you can't make that play. Just drop it here I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ironically, the fact that you said, "get it," is what makes it funny.

OP. We're not getting out of this pot alive anymore than 20% or so w/ 10 players going to the flop.

We're going to find at least one jack here a lot and should get out cheap when the aggression starts heating up.

[Christian_Peters]

[ QUOTE ]

OP. We're not getting out of this pot alive anymore than 20% or so w/ 10 players going to the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Only 6 players saw the flop. But I agree, you're drawing to 2 outs too often and w/ terrible relative position, you can get into serious trouble on turn.

[Befolder]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

OP. We're not getting out of this pot alive anymore than 20% or so w/ 10 players going to the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Only 6 players saw the flop. But I agree, you're drawing to 2 outs too often and w/ terrible relative position, you can get into serious trouble on turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are my eyes playing tricks on me again? Sheesh!

[Boggy Depot]

For two small bets you're getting 23.5:1 odds because no one behind you is going to fold away this pot for 1 more small bet. You have to see the next card and hope for the miracle.

[FatedEquity]

Don't fold this flop. The pot is huge and you're getting enough of an overlay to call even a 2-outer if you are behind.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
first flop raise is excellent. You can probably drop it here. If you had different position I might say call and fold if it's 2 to you on the turn, but being sandwiched (a Hero sandwich, get it) you can't make that play. Just drop it here I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree about the first flop raise. Putting MP1 on a jack because he donkbets is MUBS, you're not protecting anywhere in this hand, and if nobody's holding a jack the only hands you're worried about are 66 and AA. I suppose SB could be holding JJ, and letting everybody bet for him, but that's unlikely.

When the flop comes back to you capped, however, you're looking at 42:2 (without considering rake) immediate; given that MP1 will bet the turn 100% of the time when the blinds check, tho, there's 44:2...you have to call, here, closing the action. Going a step further, on the turn the blinds check, MP1 bets, you call (still getting correct odds), CO raises, the blinds fold, and MP1 ONLY CALLS, I think you're calling again, closing the action.

This hand is all about immediate odds, and, in fact, the stats and all the rest make no damn difference, because that assumes that you care what the Villans have. You don't care. You're drawing to 2 outs against everything but the very unlikely JJ. If an ace falls on the turn, you're drawing to 2 outs; (almost) any other card, 2 outs. I think the only cards on the turn that will make me consider folding this for 1 bet would be a 6 or a third J. If it's 2 back to me on the turn, then my odds have gone South, and I'm out, but you have to spend 2BB, here, with a live draw; I don't take the read on CO as strong enough to make me feel I have to count on his raising up the turn.

Edit: I'm going to make this a bit stronger. Folding the flop is awful. Even if we take it as given that MP1 and CO will cap the turn between them, that doesn't impact our decision to call on the flop, getting the right odds to see one more card. Yes, if we have a strong belief that the turn will be capped eventually, we can't call even one bet THEN (we'd be getting, uh, 7.5:1 without the blinds, 9.5:1 if they stay) for the whole street, but we have to at least see the turn before we make that decision.

[threads13]

I think the flop raise was a little bit of a problem because it doesn't protect your hand. You have a pretty strong hand and the pot is humongous so you need to knock the other players out. The only way to do that is to call the bet and then plan on raising the turn. By raising the flop you were offering the field 13.5:1 which doesn't really give them a chance to make a mistake. The only hands that would correctly fold would be PP's. Sure, the raise has value but we know what our buddy Ed Miller says about these spots.

As played I think you can call to the turn and reevaluate. It certainly looks like you are behind to either trips or a boat but you are getting 44:2 on a call which is enough to call just to hit your 2 outs.

[Ricks]

This is an easy call. You almost have pot odds to draw to another King and your implied odds are huge.