I can't believe I folded this

LearnedfromTV · #1 12-28-2006, 01:14 PM

Never played with villain bfore, he is 14/3 over like 30 hands, had never bet or raised any street until this hand. (**edit, sorry that's a little wrong obviously, he had raised once. didn't bet that flop though). My image is standard tag, like 20/16ish, usually c-betting both headsup and threeway.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($191)
Hero ($198)
Button ($344.65)
SB ($211.85)
BB ($251.95)
UTG ($217.85)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls $2, Hero raises to $10, Button calls $10, 2 folds, MP calls $8.

Flop: ($33) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($33) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $15, Button folds, MP raises to $30, Hero calls $15.

River: ($93) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP bets $70, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $163

Results in white below:
MP doesn't show.
Outcome: MP wins $163.

Kilillan · #2 12-28-2006, 01:17 PM

what do you put him on? Quads? 9s full?

bunga · #3 12-28-2006, 01:19 PM

a5 is possible I guess. I just fold the turn. I have a harder time folding the river if I called the turn.

Freelancer · #4 12-28-2006, 01:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
a5 is possible I guess. I just fold the turn. I have a harder time folding the river if I called the turn.

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A5 isn't in his range, AK/99/55 and maybe AA/KK is however.

I would raise more on the turn, 15 is quite small.

Kilillan · #5 12-28-2006, 01:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
a5 is possible I guess. I just fold the turn. I have a harder time folding the river if I called the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
A5 isn't in his range, AK/99/55 and maybe AA/KK is however.

I would raise more on the turn, 15 is quite small.

[/ QUOTE ]

in his range? You don't know his range honestly.

All 30 hands says is he's not really loose, that's about it

Freelancer · #6 12-28-2006, 01:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
a5 is possible I guess. I just fold the turn. I have a harder time folding the river if I called the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
A5 isn't in his range, AK/99/55 and maybe AA/KK is however.

I would raise more on the turn, 15 is quite small.

[/ QUOTE ]

in his range? You don't know his range honestly.

All 30 hands says is he's not really loose, that's about it

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I said it before in a few threads I'm not a stats person, I was going more by the op's description of someone who is tight preflop and passive postflop (he didn't bet/raise once in the last 30 hands) and against that type of villain KJ is usually beat on this turn because he doesn't raise his draws and doesn't randomly bluff. Against most made hands in villains range your way behind on the turn.

bunga · #7 12-28-2006, 01:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
a5 is possible I guess. I just fold the turn. I have a harder time folding the river if I called the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
A5 isn't in his range, AK/99/55 and maybe AA/KK is however.

I would raise more on the turn, 15 is quite small.

[/ QUOTE ]

30 hands is a little small to determine his range, maybe he was eating a hotdog or something and just didn't feel like playing many hands who knows.

LearnedfromTV · #8 12-28-2006, 01:27 PM

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what do you put him on? Quads? 9s full?

[/ QUOTE ]

most often a 5, i think. maybe i'm using the tiny sample stats selectively in a way i shouldn't, but i feel like vpip is going to be slower to show itself than aggressiveness; i.e. turn/river says monster, and if that means he limpcalls a few suited fives that a 14 vpip wouldn't, then so be it.

But maybe he can have AK/KQ/random often enough that it's a call?

LearnedfromTV · #9 12-28-2006, 01:34 PM

I called the turn because I think that says to most bluffers that I'm not folding the river, which against an unknown I think lets me fold a river, especially when he bets near pot and gives me relatively bad odds. I was planning to fold any river if he bet large, got a bit twisted by the J hitting, but figured it didn't improve my hand enough most of the time.

I wish I'd bet 20 on the turn. Occasionally I'll even check this turn on a paired board, but with two flush draws and having checked the flop I didn't think it made sense this time.

LearnedfromTV · #10 12-28-2006, 01:39 PM

I get what you guys are saying about the turn bet, but do we really think 15 instead of 20 makes him more likely to bluff? I mean, he might think it's a little weak, and maybe it makes him more likely to checkminraise a K, but stone bluffing with this line is rare from an unknown, I think.

also, in general re the stats, all we know is he's played relatively few hands in his first 30, and basically shown zero aggression. As a fairly aggressive player, I feel like even when I have cold cards for a stretch the few hands I do play I play aggressively; i.e. maybe he's tight, and he's probably passive.