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#1
12-22-2006, 08:14 PM
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river fold.
button is 33/23 over about 1500 hands. we dont hate eatch, ive never really noticed him. this is my 2nd hand at the table.
button raises, i 3bet k [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], bb calls and button calls. flop is q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] i bet and both call. turn is 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] i bet, bb folds, button calls river is 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] bet, raise, i fold. 
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#2
12-22-2006, 08:35 PM
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Re: river fold.
This one is super close Victor. I made one of these yesterday with an all-in player protecting the pot and he had the same hand as me and I folded 1/2 the pot. My fold was worse since the flop got checked through and I missed my CR.
You are usually toast here but the 2p2 answer is always "but you are getting 11:1" blah blah blah. I think I call this down for that reason against an aggro ish unknown.
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#4
12-22-2006, 10:46 PM
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Re: river fold.
[ QUOTE ]
ok, heres what im really wondering: do any solid players bluff raise here in his position? [/ QUOTE ] he's hoping you fold what, 77, 99 or JJ? i don't think you're ever winning.
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#5
12-22-2006, 10:49 PM
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Re: river fold.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] ok, heres what im really wondering: do any solid players bluff raise here in his position? [/ QUOTE ] he's hoping you fold what, 77, 99 or JJ? i don't think you're ever winning. [/ QUOTE ] well, he could be hoping i fold kq apparently.
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#6
12-22-2006, 11:33 PM
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Re: river fold.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] ok, heres what im really wondering: do any solid players bluff raise here in his position? [/ QUOTE ] he's hoping you fold what, 77, 99 or JJ? i don't think you're ever winning. [/ QUOTE ] well, he could be hoping i fold kq apparently. [/ QUOTE ] i suppose, but no one ever folds KQ here, so i think you can fold KQ here.
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#7
12-23-2006, 03:26 AM
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Re: river fold.
[ QUOTE ]
ok, heres what im really wondering: do any solid players bluff raise here in his position? [/ QUOTE ] Yes they do. How often they make this play? I have no idea. One other thing to consider is the possibility that the villain is raising with a calling hand. I think against aggressive value bettors who can bet/fold some strong hands, raising with a calling hand, like Q7s or AcTx on this board for example, when a non-blank card hits, can be a good play. Since were going to call anyways, this play is a relatively inexpensive value/bluff, and it has the added kick of sometimes being called by lesser hands. Now is the villain making this kind of expert play vs you knowing that you can make an expert laydown? I doubt it. The main point of my post is that this is another possibilty I would consider besides a pure bluff raise.
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#8
12-23-2006, 05:06 AM
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Re: river fold.
[ QUOTE ]
One other thing to consider is the possibility that the villain is raising with a calling hand. I think against aggressive value bettors who can bet/fold some strong hands, raising with a calling hand, like Q7s or AcTx on this board for example, when a non-blank card hits, can be a good play. Since were going to call anyways, this play is a relatively inexpensive value/bluff, and it has the added kick of sometimes being called by lesser hands. [/ QUOTE ] That is actually the most interesting idea I have read here in a few days. Myself, I would call, because I have been bluffed out of too many pots I should have won by players I did not believe would bluff-raise. And this pot is IMO too big to fold against virtually anyone for one bet holding TPKK.
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#9
12-22-2006, 08:52 PM
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Re: river fold.
What possible hands beat you?
AQ, QT, Q8, x6, suited clubs. out of all of these hands, I'd say q10 is the only one that wouldn't raise you on the turn, with the exception of Axsuitd clubs. What hands would get there on the river that might warrant a bluff? open ended straight hands like 79, 57... maybe Jc10. I think q10, Jc10, and sometimes AcJ would be the only hands that would have gotten to the river with that sequence of action. there are maybe 6 combos of q10, and 4 combos of jc10, 4 combos of AcJ. Id say someone would bluff with jc10 or AcJ less than 1/4 the time... id estimate your like a 6:2 underdog, but since you are getting 11:1, i guess its worth a call. Instinctually i would always call this but hate myself afterwards. I don't have the discipline to fold here, and im glad my terrible probability/estimation math atleast backs up my decision.
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