25/50 set vs river overbet

holla-at-yoboy · #1 12-22-2006, 07:19 PM

Villain is fairly new to the table and I don't really have any reads other than he's been fairly active so far, though he could just be catching, and I know he's a decent player. First couple streets are standard. I thought about a blocking bet on the river but decided there was a good chance he would raise a bet resembling a blocking bet and then I'd be completely lost, checking also of course gives him a chance to bluff. He surprises me with the overbet which I wasn't expecting to see. As played, call or fold river? If you like a blocking bet more lemme know, I think at this point I could go either way.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $50 BB (9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

CO ($10776)
Button ($1000)
SB ($8386)
BB ($1280)
UTG ($4950)
UTG+1 ($850)
MP1 ($1697)
MP2 ($5813)
Hero ($8280)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises to $200, CO calls $200, 3 folds.

Flop: ($475) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $300, CO calls $300.

Turn: ($1075) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $700, CO calls $700.

River: ($2475) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3000, Hero?

donkey · #2 12-22-2006, 07:26 PM

if villain is bad fold. if villain is good flip a coin.

cero_z · #3 12-22-2006, 07:27 PM

Hi holla,

This is a definite call, at least. Under some circumstances a raise could be justified, but I'm pretty sure by, "it could go either way," you mean, "call or fold."

He could be value betting some worse hands, and he could be bluffing, since you wouldn't love that card if you'd been betting JJ-KK.

Obviously, his most likely real hand is a flush, but don't active players usually raise in here somewhere with a flush draw, especially given that some of them had combo draws on the flop, and since the board's coordinated nature would make him feel less confident about getting paid off if he hit? You're getting a little less than 2:1, and you should be good here way more than 40% of the time or more, IMO; call.

PokerChris17 · #4 12-23-2006, 01:25 AM

I have to agree with Cero here. I feel if villian had a flush draw or some flush/straight combos, a raise was in order. The fold equity villian would have in this position is to great to pass up. Now only a staight draw, single pair or two pair would warrant these calls and a large river bet when you check. This would be a clear call to me.

Bill King · #5 12-23-2006, 03:25 AM

i actually like the way you played this b/c he thinks this is a terrible card for you (when we know its actually not THAT bad)... although i prob make it a little more on the flop and turn.. you might have left ~1k in equity on those streets.

as played call, i think a block bet gives him no chance to bluff this street

flavio321 · #6 12-22-2006, 07:44 PM

i make this bet lot of the time on the river if i'm certain that the player has AA-TT. and me having a made flush. trying to get the AA to push, and KK-TT to think it's a steal.
since you don't have a read on the villain, might be safe to fold.

Ryanb9 · #7 12-23-2006, 03:42 AM

CO ($10776)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Ts, Td.
4 folds, Hero raises to $200, CO calls $200, 3 folds.

So CO flat calls with great implied odds (to your stack of 8k) and in postion on you. He could have anything from high cards to pp's to sooted connectors.

Flop: ($475) 7s, 8h, Th (2 players)

U get top set, however the texture of this flop is very bad. That being said I dont think this is a time to bet for value. I think your bet here should be to find out more about his hand, and actually given that he could have s.connectors, taking down this pot right here wouldn't be bad at all.

Hero bets $300, CO calls $300.

I think this bet is a little too small. $450 - $500 would take it down more often and also give you a better idea of where the villain is at. This is very important here because you have to act first on the turn so the more info you get about his hand right here, the better.

Turn: ($1075) 2d (2 players)
Hero bets $700, CO calls $700.

This (other than another 7 or 8) is pretty much the best card in the deck for you. It couldn't have helped him out and you still prolly have the best hand. I think a bet slightly bigger than the pot here would be best b/c it would prolly take town the pot, and taking this pot down here is good for many reasons:
1. You both have a LOT of chips behind you.
2. There are more "bad" cards that could come on the river than cards that will help you.
3. The villain could be on a draw, and even if he isnt he has plenty of chips behind to represent a made draw if a scare card comes.

River: ($2475) Ah (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3000, Hero?

Well, this is what poker is all about lol, sux to be you here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. Umm - lets try to break this down---

Lets get this out of the way first -- If you think the villain could have Ax, and you think the villain thinks you have a pair (like JJ maybe), than you should insta call this. I know this would be like .1% of the time, but if previous hands you/him have played aim to this, then obv call (I mean its a posability right? Just getten it outta the way guys..).

Ok. Well, the villain's bet is clearly saying "I have a flush." So your set is now irrelevant - its a bluff catcher. Now we get to try to figure out if he has a flush or not (remember your reads on him play a big roll here). Well if he was on a flush draw this entire time he was drawing at -ev. He knows that, and he knows you know that. So you both know that if he was drawing to a flush the only way the play would be +ev for him would be that if when he did make his flush, he would get paid off on it (the $ he gets when he makes his flush are greater than the -$ used to draw to it). That being said, if he was drawing to a flush he needs you to call his river bet in order to make his play +ev. BUT - he bets $3000... *sigh*

So he overbets the pot. It could easily be a bluff, but it could be that ... He knows you know that he needs to get paid off, so he made an overbet making it look like he doesnt want a call, which in turn would make you call because you think he's bluffing - which in turn would greatly pay him off for drawing to his flush, making his play +ev (if u call). I guess you need make your best guess at what level he is thinking at, and make your decision from there.

I dont know if I'm even thinking at the right level here, but I hope this made sense lol.

Edit: My random guess is your set is good, but then again if ur set was good you prolly wouldn't be posting this hand here, so --- Fold [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

yvesaint · #8 12-23-2006, 03:49 AM

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I think this bet is a little too small. $450 - $500 would take it down more often

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why would u want to take the pot down more often when u have top set

Ryanb9 · #9 12-23-2006, 03:53 AM

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I think this bet is a little too small. $450 - $500 would take it down more often

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why would u want to take the pot down more often when u have top set

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If the hero had 3-5k here thats a different story. But with the size of the hero and villain's stack I just really don't like the texture of the flop here given the villain's range of hands.

Bill King · #10 12-23-2006, 03:53 AM

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I think this bet is a little too small. $450 - $500 would take it down more often

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why would u want to take the pot down more often when u have top set

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just ignore that and assume he said "k bet more 4 value plz"