Awkward bubble spot

[Gramps]

Blinds 120/240
UTG (925)
BTN (4,281)
SB (7,089)
Hero/BB (1,025)


Dealt to Hero [Th As]
UTG raises to 800 <font color="red"> leaving 125 chips </font>
BTN folds
SB calls 680
Hero...

SB is a bit of an odd foolio who's a bit loose/aggressive, liking the MR/constant smallish bets. Of course, he's not the PFR here. Of course, my relative position might create issues. Of course, my AT is looking good against UTG's range. Of course...?

[cakewalk]

id fold. probably sharing outs. if you shoved utg could technically fold or something. (omg higher lvl bubble play?) no reason to get involved here really..

[RexWoo]

This is the moment to _not_ be involved, no ?

[Velocity]

If we fold preflop, UTG is calling AI on the flop 100% of the time and will either have 2090 or 0 while we have 785. UTG's chances of beating SB to get this stack are X.

If we call preflop and SB leads while we miss, if we fold and UTG will be calling AI a lot because the next hand both Hero and current UTG will be forced all in while hero has more chips forcing UTG to win a likely 3 way pot AI blind the next hand. This time when he wins SB either has 2775 or 0 while we have 225. UTG's chances of beating SB to get the stack are still X.

Even when we hit, we will still end up being 75% or so on the flop VS the SB's range, and UTGs chips are going in after we are all in only when he has us (and likely the SB) dominated.

I would fold.

Edit: I'm starting to think we may end up calling all in even if we miss because we will be getting such sick pot odds. If we call blank flops, UTG will fold behind us a lot, making our original call preflop, putting ourselves at risk in a 60/40 vs SB while UTG has 125 horrendous.

[pineapple888]

Well obviously hugely read-dependent.

What does UTGs weird raise mean? If it's likely to be a monster, obviously fold.

What does SBs call mean? If he's real wide for whatever reason, you have to get in there, between amazing pot odds and danger of shorty doubling up.

In that case, should you flat call or shove? I tried to work through some scenarios where flat-calling might be better and couldn't really see it, because your position sucks post-flop, so I think it's push or fold.

So push if you think they are both wide, fold and hope for the best otherwise. Obviously if they both call this is fine, if they are wide, for the usual reasons (only shorty&gt;biggie&gt;you creates a bubble for you).

I'm not all that upset if shorty folds at that point if biggie is wide, the dead chips make up for the risk of bubbling. I should do the exact math but I'm too lazy, it shouldn't be all that hard to work out exact ranges, etc for that scenario (you shove, shorty folds, biggie calls).

[Velocity]

ugh, i discounted the dead money we are getting preflop in my edit and now my editing privelidges are gone, getting AI pre is less horrendous than it seems and may even be a good idea

[RexWoo]

???

Excuse me but isn't shoving stupid, here ?

I mean, UTG can now decide that his hand is no good and decide to fold, letting you struggle with the big stack.

You absolutly want shorty all-in before you put your stack in the middle, no ?

IMO, fold &gt; call &gt;&gt;&gt; shove.

[RexWoo]

Pinaple,

I think you can put this scenario directly into SnG Wiz, providing we have correct open / call range for UTG and SB.

Concerning the scenario where UTG folds :
* let's say UTG open 40% (calling range to our push is 0%),
* I put SB calling range to 25% (both to UTG and my push)

This particular case is highly -$EV (roughly -5%).

[EDIT : please suggest your own ranges if you want]

[fluorescenthippo]

[ QUOTE ]
Pinaple,

I think you can put this scenario directly into SnG Wiz, providing we have correct open / call range for UTG and SB.

Concerning the scenario where UTG folds :
* let's say UTG open 40% (calling range to our push is 0%),
* I put SB calling range to 25% (both to UTG and my push)

This particular case is highly -$EV (roughly -5%).

[EDIT : please suggest your own ranges if you want]

[/ QUOTE ]

this cant be right. -5% is sick huge.

i think i like a push here

[Ditch Digger]

Shoving looks best. Calling leaves us in a very [censored] spot on the flop and gives UTG an escape route if he completely wiffs. Like Pineapple said, if we think he's huge we should just fold PF but I suck and never have good enough reads to know that a guy does this with only monsters.