NBA Player Props

[alecb]

Not too much going on tonight, but some very interesting player props on Bodog.

How many games will J.R. Smith be suspended?
How many games will Jared Jeffries be suspended?
How many games will Mardy Collins be suspended?

For each, I selected 1-3 games at +150.

This is because all at most contributed to the brawl, but didn't throw any punches. Mardy Collins made the flagrant foul but ended up punched (and didn't do anything during the fight). Smith tackled someone. And Jeffries tried to go after Melo but couldn't get to him. It's hard to imagine anyone but Robinson and Anthony getting more than a couple of games because they were the only two to throw punches. I put 2 units on each of these plays.

I also put 2 units on Jamison over 19.5 points.

[thing85]

Thanks for the bets. When do we find out how many games they will be suspended for?

[alecb]

Monday afternoon.

[alecb]

Holy [censored], what a game the Lakers/Wizards game was. Jamison ended up with well over 20 points. 5-2 player props, +10.6 units.

By the way, revision to my bet on JR Smith above: I've been hearing that he threw a punch during the melee, so this takes 1-3 days off the board.

[JasonK]

The suspensions and fines are below:
# Nuggets forward Carmelo Anthony has been suspended for 15 games.
# Knicks guard Nate Robinson has been suspended for 10 games.
# Nuggets guard J.R. Smith has been suspended for 10 games.
# Knicks guard Mardy Collins has been suspended for 6 games.
# Knicks forward Jared Jeffries has been suspended for 4 games.
# Knicks center Jerome James has been suspended for 1 game for leaving the bench during an on-court altercation.
# Nuggets forward Nene has been suspended 1game for leaving the bench during an on-court altercation.

[alecb]

Wow, I got all the player suspensions wrong, apologies to anyone that followed my lead. I should not have underestimated Stern's desire to crack down on this sort of activity, especially after the Palace Brawl.

Props for tonight:

NFL Player Prop - Rudi Johnson (CIN) Ov. 23½ Rushing Attempts -145

This is almost too easy that I want to keep away from it... but, everyone knows the Indy rush defense is bad. Very bad. The Bengals will do what everyone else has done the past month to beat the Colts: run.

5 units on over.

In the NBA, I see only one line I will wager on, with some tempting but not very confident lines.

Rashard Lewis (SEA) Ov. 29 P+R -125

Ray Allen is injured and who is there to pick up the slack? Rashard Lewis. Apart from being benched in the fourth quarter against the Cavs last Friday, Lewis has had a very good December. In his last 9 games (including against the Cavs), he has gone over 29 P+R 6 times. They are playing a horrible Memphis team that will keep it close enough for Lewis to see 40+ minutes. I expect 24 points and 8 rebounds from Lewis. 5 units on over.

Other lines to consider: Dirk Nowitzki (DAL) Ov. 33½ P+R -135
Mike Bibby (SAC) Ov. 27 P+R+A -125
Jason Kidd (NJN) Ov. 31 P+R+A -110

I like Kidd on this line specifically because they are playing the Warriors. The Warriors give up a LOT of offense, even to teams like the Raptors. I predict Kidd putting up around 18 points, 7 rebounds, and 8 assists.
5-5 player props, +4.6 units. However, I have difficulty committing to this line because of Kidd's recent performances: in the past 8 games, the only time he has gone over 20 points was against the Suns in the double OT game and is NOT shooting well in December. Bibby has had a really weird year, up and down, much like Dirk. I believe Dirk would be a safer play at over 33.5 P+R because he finally had a good game this weekend against NO and expect him to look for more offense.

[alecb]

I really didn't understand the Jeffries suspension. He was on the court and he went after someone. No punches thrown, no pushes, but just went after someone and he got four games.