1-AA Championship Tongiht...

[wiper]

any thoughts??

i live near youngstown, ohio, and got to watch appalachian state last week, and swore that i'd be betting on them and their no-huddle fastbreak-type offense, and their 2,000 yard passing/1,000 yard running quarterback...

then, i saw that the line is 'only' 3.5...anyone know anything about massachussetts??

probably going to go with the moneyline at -150, but figured i'd check here first..

app state, imo, should be much bigger favorites, at least from what i saw last week against youngstown state...

[iggymcfly]

I watched the UMass/Montana game last week. The Minutemen looked pretty good too. Honestly, they should have won that game by at least 2 TDs. They were playing on the road, all the big plays on turnovers went against them, and the penalties went against them something like 12-1. Also, they were playing in front of the biggest crowd in I-AA. If I were to make a guess, I'd say Appalachian State wins, but doesn't cover the 3.5.

[wiper]

awesome, i was looking at the moneyline to begin with anyway...

i was pretty excited to see -150 (-160 now), expecting it, again, with no knowledge about mass, to be in the -300 range...

so, rather than jump right in, i figured i better look around and find out first..

[wiper]

an article i found, i case anyone cares...wait, of course you do, you're all bettors!! kinda cements my own ideas, and i'm headed over to put several units on the app. st. moneyline...their offense will be too much it sounds..

(1) Appalachian State (13-1) vs. (3) Massachusetts (13-1)

The Sports Network

By Matt Dougherty, Director of I-AA Football

DATE & TIME: Friday, December 15th, 8 p.m. (et).

FACTS & STATS: Site: Finley Stadium/Davenport Field (20,668) -- Chattanooga, Tennessee. Surface: FieldTurf. Television: ESPN 2. Announcers: Dave Pasch, Rod Gilmore, Trevor Matich. Home Record: Appalachian State 9-0; Massachusetts 8-0. Away Record: Appalachian State 4-1; Massachusetts 5-1. Series Record: First meeting. Conference: Appalachian State - Southern; Massachusetts - Atlantic 10. Sports Network Ranking: Appalachian State (1); Massachusetts (3). Nicknames: Appalachian State Mountaineers; Massachusetts Minutemen. Coaches: Appalachian State - Jerry Moore (153-68 at Appalachian State, 180-116-2 overall); Massachusetts - Don Brown (26-10 at Massachusetts, 78-36 Overall). Playoff Record: Appalachian State (14-12); Massachusetts (9-5). Title on the Line: NCAA Division I Football National Championship.

GAME NOTES: For the first time since 2003, two seeded teams will meet in the national championship game. This is also the first title matchup since the Colgate/Delaware tilt that season to feature a pair of teams with one loss or less, so the Minutemen and Mountaineers have clearly earned their chance to be here with quality play throughout the season. Massachusetts improved to 13-0 on the season against I-AA/FCS opponents and won its 12th game in a row overall with a 19-17 triumph at Montana in the semifinals. The Minutemen trailed, 17-14, at halftime, but notched a safety in the third quarter and a field goal early in the fourth quarter to come back for the win. Steve Baylark ran for 169 yards and two touchdowns on 29 carries, and the Minutemen racked up 460 yards of total offense against a very tough Montana defense. The Atlantic 10 champion Minutemen moved their semifinal record to a perfect 3-0 with the victory, and will try to get on the winning side in national championship appearances on Friday. Massachusetts lost to Florida A & M, 35-28, in the first I-AA/FCS title game in 1978, but earned its only national title with a 55-43 upset of Georgia Southern in 1998.

Appalachian State will try to become the first repeat national champion since Georgia Southern in 1999-00 and join the Eagles and Youngstown State as the only programs with back-to-back national championships. The Mountaineers defeated Northern Iowa, 21-16, to win last year's national championship in their first appearance in the game. Appalachian State boasts an extensive playoff history, and evened its semifinal record to 2-2 with a commanding, 49-24, victory over Youngstown State on Saturday. The Mountaineers ran for 353 yards and six touchdowns and led by double digits from the second quarter on. Kevin Richardson and Armanti Edwards both cracked the 100-yard barrier in rushing yardage for the third game in a row. That type of success is becoming common in Boone. The Mountaineers held the No. 1 ranking throughout most of the season, and have a 13-1 overall record with a 12-0 mark against I-AA/FCS foes. They have a 13-game overall winning streak coming in to the title game, and also boast a 21-game win streak against foes from the subdivision which dates back to a 34-31 loss at Furman in October of 2005. Appalachian State and Massachusetts have never faced each other, but both teams have experience against the opposing conference. The Mountaineers have a 16-8 record against Atlantic 10 teams, with a win over James Madison this year. They have a 4-1 mark against A-10 teams in the postseason, with a 14-13 home loss to Maine in 2002 in the most recent encounter. Massachusetts has a 2-1 record against Southern Conference teams, with all of the games in the playoffs and including the championship win over Georgia Southern.

When Massachusetts Has the Ball: The Minutemen have a balanced attack, but they would prefer to grind it out late with Baylark the same way they did against a tough Montana defense. Baylark (1827 yards, 15 TD) has efforts of 152, 198 and 169 yards in the first three playoff games, and has five playoff touchdowns already. At 6-0, 225, Baylark gets even better as the game goes on and wore down the Grizzly defense with 12 fourth-quarter carries to bleed the clock in the semifinals. Baylark is one of only five I-AA/FCS players all- time with four 1,000-yard rushing seasons, and the Minutemen have a 22-3 record when he runs for 100 yards or more. That mark is at 9-0 this season, so Appalachian State will have to contain Baylark and a Minutemen running game that goes for 180.3 yards per game. The Mountaineers got some experience against a power running attack last week, and did a solid job when the game was in doubt against Youngstown State. Penguin running back Marcus Mason did notch 121 yards and a touchdown, but the Mountaineers held their own when they had to. The season numbers are still sparkling for the Appalachian State defense, with just 2.98 yards per carry and 105.3 rushing yards allowed per game. They have also held opponents to eight rushing touchdowns, and should give Baylark and the Minutemen one of their stiffest tests of the season. The Massachusetts offensive line has established itself as one of the best in the nation, and could get a push late against a smaller but faster Mountaineer defensive line. Massachusetts will probably try to keep most of its running game between the tackles, since Appalachian State's speed on defense could make it hard to notch big gainers to the outside.

But the Minutemen will also need something from the passing game to have a chance to get that fourth quarter lead and ride Baylark late in the game. Quarterback Liam Coen (2795 yards, 25 TD/8 INT) has performed well and hit big plays all season, but he does come off one of his toughest games of the season with two interceptions against Montana, and has at least one pick in each playoff game. He leads a passing game that notches more than 200 yards per contest, and has a pair of big receivers in 6-foot-4 Brandon London (705 yards, 9 TD) and 6-foot-5 Rasheed Rancher. Appalachian State has good numbers against the pass as well, but the Minutemen could get a favorable matchup for big plays with the tall receivers going up against smaller Mountaineer cornerbacks. If the Minutemen can strike through the air, they could keep All- American safeties Jeremy Wiggins and Corey Lynch from creeping up in run support. The Mountaineers will also send a strong pass rush at Coen, who has only been sacked 15 times all season. Coen will need time to have any chance at a few big gainers, so the matchup on the line will be critical. The Minutemen need something from the passing game, but they really want to ride Baylark's coattails and control the ball on the ground as much as possible.

When Appalachian State Has the Ball: Part of the reason the Minutemen need to control the ball and clock on offense is because no defense wants to see much of the Appalachian State offense right now. The Mountaineer running game was great all season, but it has really taken off in the postseason for huge offensive outputs and some quick drives for touchdowns. Appalachian State has totals of 334, 283 and 353 yards in rushing offense in the first three playoff games, and has 14 of its 18 postseason touchdowns on the ground. The Mountaineers put up their best performance in the semifinal victory, with a dominating 353 yards and six touchdowns on 6.8 yards per carry in the win against Youngstown State. Kevin Richardson (1497 yards, 26 TD) notched 145 yards and two touchdowns on only 18 carries last week, and has been extraordinary lately. He has 130 yards or more in all three playoff games, and has cracked the century mark eight times in the last 10 games. He has also scored at least one touchdown in every game but one, and has seven rushing touchdowns in the postseason. Richardson did leave the game against Youngstown State in the third quarter with a bruised trapezoid, but he is expected to be good to go on Friday. If he is at all limited, true freshman quarterback Armanti Edwards is very capable of picking up the load. Edwards (1072 rush yards, 15 TD) cracked the 1,000-yard mark for the season last week, and has 100-yard efforts in all three playoff games. Both players have game-breaking speed, and lead a Mountaineer offense that ranks fourth nationally with 238.2 rushing yards per game.

The Massachusetts defense probably hasn't seen a team with Appalachian State's speed, but the unit has quality players at every position to keep the Mountaineers from running wild again. The Minutemen are giving up only 101.5 yards per game on the ground, and will bring a blitzing scheme to put pressure on a very good Mountaineer offensive line. Appalachian State is probably clicking too much to really be stopped, but turnovers can be a big issue. Appalachian State is near the bottom of the country with 16 fumbles lost, and has turned it over 29 times overall. Massachusetts has recovered 13 fumbles this season, and defensive back James Ihedigbo has four forced fumbles and possesses great playmaking ability. Like Massachusetts, the Mountaineers will face their tough test on run defense. They will probably need to make a few plays through the air as well, and Edwards (2015 yards, 15 TD, 9 INT) has the ability to do just that with a strong group of wide receivers. Edwards became just the fifth player in Division I history to throw for 2,000 yards and run for 1,000 in a season, so the Massachusetts defense figures to give him plenty of attention and could even use a defensive back or linebacker to keep Edwards in his sight at all times. Appalachian State is second nationally with 35.7 points per game, and scored at least 40 points eight times. On the other hand, Massachusetts leads the nation with 12.3 ppg allowed and has not given up more than 21 points in any contest. Massachusetts can probably keep the Mountaineers from exploding for more than 40 points, but will need turnovers to slow down the rolling offense.

Intangibles: All the exterior factors would seem to point in Appalachian State's favor. The Mountaineers are familiar with this stage after winning the national title a year ago, and they should be plenty familiar with a trip to Southern Conference foe Chattanooga's stadium. The Mountaineers are expected to bring upwards of 10,000 fans to the game, and the followers figure to be pumped for another coronation and make the game feel like a virtual home game. However, those are the same factors that went against Massachusetts a week ago. Winning in the raucous environment in Missoula should give the Minutemen plenty of confidence in any environment. Both teams have to prepare under a short week for an unfamiliar opponent, so the ability of the coaching staffs to find a wrinkle or two for the game plan could be a factor.

The Verdict: Anyone who's read this column since July knows what's coming here. Massachusetts is a very, very good team that I ranked at the No. 2 spot in my top 25 for most of the second half of the season, and the Minutemen have more balance on both sides of the ball than anyone in the country. But they don't have the explosive ability and playmakers that Appalachian State possesses on each side of the ball. Edwards looks more and more sure of himself on a weekly basis, and the speed of the running game should finally crack through the Massachusetts defense. The Mountaineers can limit Baylark's effectiveness and get some pressure on Coen if they have a lead in the fourth quarter, and that should be the case. In a matchup of two great teams, Appalachian State just has too much explosiveness and big-play ability. The Mountaineers win their second national championship in a row to solidify their position as one of the best programs in I-AA/FCS annals.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Appalachian State 31, Massachusetts 20.

[MicroBob]

App St is probably the slightly better team.

They have a virtual home-field advantage for this one.
They are pretty close and will have many more fans and are familiar with the field as well as most of their team having thrived in championship-game pressure before.

Even though UMass did well last week in a hostile environment, the home-field advantage still is with App St (not a full, regular home-field advantage...but enough of one).


But now I'm concerned because it seems like there's a lot of action towards Mass now.
It was 3.5 -110 (I think) earlier and now I can get App St for -3, +105.

WTF is happening with this line? Weird.


Still probably going to take App St. though but I'm holding off for a sec.

[MicroBob]

Well, nothing shows up on ESPN about players being suspended or anything.

And the line bounced back to -3, +101 so I decided to grab it.

[playersare]

Fezzik took Mass (or was it Dr. Bob - don't remember), that was probably enough to push the line on a low-liquidity game. I just played the cheap side on 3/3.5 -107 both sides, no handicapping.

[MCS]

A few selected overall Sagarin ratings:

51 Florida State
53 Massachusetts
56 Appalachian State
60 Miami-Florida

[HajiShirazu]

I saw this and was like, "BS". Then I looked at the ratings and saw Northern Iowa was like 93 and Iowa State was like 91. Iowa State beat Northern Iowa by 1 at home. So maybe these are pretty accurate.

[MCS]

I won with Appalachian State -3 -103. Could have had a better line. Not sure I was on the right side. Still get to keep the money.