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View Poll Results: Hand 1 | |||
Fold | 1 | 2.86% | |
Call | 22 | 62.86% | |
Raise | 12 | 34.29% | |
Voters: 35. You may not vote on this poll |
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#1
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20/180, To what degree can I assume villain is logical?
I am completely new to 20/180s so I am interested from the regulars in these games about the average opponent in these games
My thoughts in white, read after you vote. <font color="white"> Clearly a logical opponent is not pushing a queen/set/or baby flush here. This looks like someone who can't call me if he leads and I push. This also looks like someone who will not like a lot of turn cards. I don't think he is second leveling me here but how often is he betting a weak queen without a spade? </font> Just got moved 5 hands ago. 75 players left. Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font> Button (t1385) SB (t1420) <font color="#C00000">BB (t1890)</font> UTG (t5680) UTG+1 (t3550) MP1 (t4030) <font color="#C00000">Hero (t2830)</font> MP3 (t1065) CO (t2077) Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t300</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls t200. Flop: (t650) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">BB bets t1590 (All-In)</font>, Hero... |
#2
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Re: 20/180, To what degree can I assume villain is logical?
hard to type cast the typical 180.
in general though it seems they try to check raise monsters. so im guessing he does not have a flush. that leaves a weak queen, or the ace of spades as thier most likely hodlings. though i suppose 10s and 9s are possible. so i guess when you consider all the combinations he could have my guess is 60 percent of the time? but he will suck out some percentage of the time. so i dont know id probably fold this. calling overpushes has generallh been unprofitable for me in the 20/180s |
#3
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Re: 20/180, To what degree can I assume villain is logical?
You don't really have to overthink this one. You can't be sure you're good here, and if you're not, you have 2 outs at most to catch up, and if you're actually ahead, your opponent stands to have a lot of outs. As it is, you're not getting good pot odds to make the call. He made the move and you have to fold it.
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#4
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Re: 20/180, To what degree can I assume villain is logical?
I've played a fair share of 20/180's, and I would fully expect to see a Q+ weak kicker, no spade.
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#5
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Re: 20/180, To what degree can I assume villain is logical?
easy fold.
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#6
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Re: 20/180, To what degree can I assume villain is logical?
[ QUOTE ]
easy fold. [/ QUOTE ] I was hoping that you would reply shaun, being that you are a legit 180 man baller. Can you put an unknown 20/180 villain on a range here? Is this almost always QX no spade? |
#7
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Re: 20/180, To what degree can I assume villain is logical?
[ QUOTE ]
I've played a fair share of 20/180's, and I would fully expect to see a Q+ a spade. [/ QUOTE ] Like 80% of the time easily. |
#8
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Re: 20/180, To what degree can I assume villain is logical?
Easy fold, I think this is usually one of 3 hands, Asx Ksx or Qx no spade. Obviously best case scenario u have to dodge 12outs and worst case and probably most common you have to catch 2 outs.
This hand would be tougher if Hero had Js, because then you've got a lot more equity against a Q with no spade and this may make this a call, given hero is getting about 1.4 to 1. The pot odds against these ranges would change dramatically I reckon. Do you think its a call with Js in heros hand? |
#9
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Re: 20/180, To what degree can I assume villain is logical?
The hand above is an easy fold, as it's just too damn likely he has a Q in hand. You are either slightly ahead or way behind here.
but in regards to this: [ QUOTE ] Do you think its a call with Js in heros hand? [/ QUOTE ] This situation becomes much closer and I'd definitely consider calling. |
#10
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Some math for this hand
IMO this is a very easy call with the jack of spades.
A little math and a little analysis... --- edit: for simplification purposes I assumed that this was not a planned stop and go with the villain having a hand like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Obviously if this is possible then the math shifts further in favor of a call When I call and am ahead (be it that I am against AsX or TsTd) I am ~55% to win the hand. When I call and I am against a Queen with no spade I am 10% to win the hand. I am calling 1590 to win 3830. So if I am ahead X% and behind Y% the calculation comes to this being a +cEV call iff: X(.55*3820-.45*1590)-Y(.9*1590-.1*3820) > 0 => X(1386) - Y(1031) > 0 => X=.744, Y=.256 in order for this to be a +cEV call X needs to be greater than 74.4%. With 75 players left I am definitely willing to take a coinflip in this spot to build up my stack Interestingly, 6 people have said that this is a call but only 3 people thought that I was ahead of the villain 75%+ of the time which means that a few of us are not too good with our math. --- I don't know if I am convinced that the villain is open pushing with a queen+ 25% of the time in this spot. Keep in mind that this pot is significant to the villains stack and by pushing he is intentionally pricing out all draws meaning that he really wants to just take it down with his bet and is hoping to not get called. Logically, this is a bad push for a player with a queen to be making (unless he is thinking that a player with red jacks will think that this is a bad push and therefore will call but I don't think the avg 20/180s are thinking on that level) I am very interested in what the other 180 man ballers have to say about the chance that the villain is open pushing with a queen here as I would like to build a general read on the 20/180 opponents as this seems like a fun low stakes tournament to start multitabling at times that the big MTTs are not running. These poll results are a lot of fun for me... so far the vast majority of people think that the villain is open pushing a queen more than 50% of the time on this flop. -Steve |
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