Top two vs. a nit...I can't fold, can I?

nickg1532 · #1 12-09-2006, 03:37 PM

MP2 is very nitty (11/6/1) but this is only over about 40 hands, so the read is by no means solid. BB is a shortstack donk who I'm obviously not concerned about.

Part of me says this guy has 77 or JJ after the turn raise. The LHE player in me, though, can't fold top two pair on this board if my life depended on it [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Anyways, is this bad??

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($9.20)
Button ($29.90)
SB ($132.05)
BB ($29.65)
UTG ($68.70)
UTG+1 ($20)
Hero ($126.85)
MP2 ($100)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, MP2 calls $4, 3 folds, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($12.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $9, MP2 calls $9, BB calls $9.

Turn: ($39.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $30, MP2 raises to $64, BB calls $16.65 (All-In), Hero says here's another buyin and pushes

keikiwai · #2 12-09-2006, 03:42 PM

You're not deep enough to fold.

Hope he's got A5 or A7 or J7 or something silly

Tickner · #3 12-09-2006, 03:45 PM

A5 A7 or J7 are definitely not in a nits calling range in MP from an EP raise.

He's got a set.

keikiwai · #4 12-09-2006, 03:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
A5 A7 or J7 are definitely not in a nits calling range in MP from an EP raise.

He's got a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

After 40 hands you'd better be pretty sure of this, considering your odds.

Also, even nitty players are capable of playing A7s and A5s by cold calling.

Obv. it's a set sometimes, but not nearly often enough imo.

nickg1532 · #5 12-09-2006, 04:02 PM

just something to note, maybe AK is in his range too?? i mean, i see alot of nits who are really tight pf, but when they hit TPTK (especially w/ AK) they think it's the nuts.

keikiwai · #6 12-09-2006, 04:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
just something to note, maybe AK is in his range too?? i mean, i see alot of nits who are really tight pf, but when they hit TPTK (especially w/ AK) they think it's the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would discount AK due to pf and overall line postflop, but maybe... point is after 5 orbits, how good of a read do you have on him?

rokstedy · #7 12-09-2006, 03:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
A5 A7 or J7 are definitely not in a nits calling range in MP from an EP raise.

He's got a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Praetor · #8 12-09-2006, 04:05 PM

i think you lose more than you win, but given it will be only $55 more to win $230, and we sometimes have the best hand, its a pretty clear shove.

Cormia · #9 12-09-2006, 04:07 PM

Honestly, one this board with this action, I'd say you're beat almost always. (My prediction is 77)

That said, I would probably want to be more confident in my read to be fully comfortable with a fold, but I feel after 40 hands you can get a general idea of villian's style. If your read is nitty, then A7/5 or J7 aren't showing up here.

Fly · #10 12-09-2006, 04:17 PM

You have 40 hands at FULL RING against this guy. 11/6/1 looks nitty but this could very easily just be a cold streak of cards. Get the money in and be happy about it.