TPTK + Redraws vs. Field on Scary Board

NIX · #1 12-01-2006, 06:24 PM

Reads:

MP1 is new to the table. I don't have anything on him.

MP2 16/12/4 over 86 hands. She seems to be a pretty decent player and can get tricky. She's called flop bets and waited until the turn to raise top pair before, and has flopped strong hands, slowplayed them, and then donked later in the hand when a scare card hit. In general, she has a bit fit or fold on the flop except when slowplaying.

SB is 42/14/1.2 over 36 hands. I haven't noticed anything really out of order with him aside from being too loose so far and showing down too often.

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, MP1 raises, MP2 3-bets, Hero caps, 2 folds, SB calls, BB folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (17SB, 4 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (10.5BB, 4 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero ???

I really want to fire again on the turn, but I've been having a bad run lately and think I may be getting a bit gunshy. I figure no one raised me on the flop, so I'm discounting AT a bit.* As it stands now, I'm ahead of AQ, KK, QQ (8+3+6=17 hands) and behind AA, JJ, TT, AJ, AT, and a flush (1+3+3+6+3*=16 hands) I really don't expect a flush to be out since the Queen is the only big club unaccounted for. I suppose 98s is an outside possibility, especially from the SB since his range is probably much too wide for someone who cold called 3.5SB preflop, but in general, I'm not scared of a flush due to the preflop aggression. With 12 potential outs (clubs/queens) as redraws to the nuts right now if I'm behind, I'm still about even money to be ahead right now against one sane opponent, but I'm probably behind at least one of the of two combined.

So, my question is, I do have TPTK and a ton of redraws in a massive pot. Is it worth betting again now, possibly for value, or should I just take a free card now and potentially get myself in a rough spot on the river if I don't improve and the others get excited?

davelin · #2 12-01-2006, 06:29 PM

I'd bet this turn for sure.

Shillx · #3 12-01-2006, 08:47 PM

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I'd bet this turn for sure.

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ckj · #4 12-01-2006, 07:41 PM

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Is it worth betting again now, possibly for value, or should I just take a free card now and potentially get myself in a rough spot on the river if I don't improve and the others get excited?

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You seem to have answered your own question. Either take the easy choice where you are probably ahead, or make things potentially difficult for yourself on the river where you are maybe not getting money in while ahead.

Thus, bet the turn, call if raised you have a flush draw now to the 2nd nut. Plus a gutshot may be good as well if you are indeed raised.

Jim14Qc · #5 12-01-2006, 07:50 PM

Grunch:

I fire again. Both for value (in case I'm ahead, although there are good chances for that no longer being the case) or for pot equity (~1/3 in a 4-way pot to hit the nut flush).

NIX · #6 12-02-2006, 03:57 AM

Couple of things.

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Grunch:

I fire again. Both for value (in case I'm ahead, although there are good chances for that no longer being the case) or for pot equity (~1/3 in a 4-way pot to hit the nut flush).

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If the only way I'm going to win this pot is to make my flush, I don't have equity for a bet anymore. I'm a little worse than 4:1 to make my flush. I really need 5 callers to be able to bet just the flush draw for value on the turn. If I stick with my assumption that I win if any club/queen hits (12 outs), now I'm about 2.8:1 to get there. I can now bet for value if I get 3 callers.

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KQs is possible too for MP2 (not KcQc obviously) and SB is just about loose enough for KQ, and you're behind those and only drawing to a chop for two of the remaining queens. You missed out AKs/AK too, which you tie with. MP1 called three back and didn't fold the flop, so I'm curious what he could have. Of the hands you're ahead of, you'd have to consider it unlikely that QQ and KK continued on an ace-high flop All in all, I'd be astonished if I was ahead here. I wouldn't mind checking and hoping that I get to close the action on the river for a single bet if I don't improve.

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At the table, I completely didn't think of KQ/KQs being in anyone's range. Thinking about it now, it doesn't look that good. I'm not sure if MP2 would 3bet KQs preflop, but maybe. I'd definitely put KQ and KQs in MP1 and SB's ranges though. Adding that in, I really think I'm behind more often than I'm ahead against 3 people. I also didn't include AK/AKs either because I'm freerolling both of them. Probably not the best idea, but I'm not concerned about those hands.

Jim14Qc · #7 12-01-2006, 07:51 PM

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Is it worth betting again now, possibly for value, or should I just take a free card now and potentially get myself in a rough spot on the river if I don't improve and the others get excited?

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You seem to have answered your own question. Either take the easy choice where you are probably ahead, or make things potentially difficult for yourself on the river where you are maybe not getting money in while ahead.

Thus, bet the turn, call if raised you have a flush draw now to the 2nd nut. Plus a gutshot may be good as well if you are indeed raised.

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His flush draw is to the pure nuts, the Ac is on board. and no straight flush is possible since he has Kc. No pair on board either.

drzen · #8 12-01-2006, 08:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is it worth betting again now, possibly for value, or should I just take a free card now and potentially get myself in a rough spot on the river if I don't improve and the others get excited?

[/ QUOTE ]
You seem to have answered your own question. Either take the easy choice where you are probably ahead, or make things potentially difficult for yourself on the river where you are maybe not getting money in while ahead.

Thus, bet the turn, call if raised you have a flush draw now to the 2nd nut. Plus a gutshot may be good as well if you are indeed raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

His flush draw is to the pure nuts, the Ac is on board. and no straight flush is possible since he has Kc. No pair on board either.

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His flush draw is to the second nuts. If he rivers 7c, 9c8c has an SF.

ckj · #9 12-01-2006, 08:59 PM

Whoops you're right, I thought the Ace was of a different suit.

If the 7c hit he'd have the nut flush, but could lose to a straight flush.

drzen · #10 12-01-2006, 08:46 PM

KQs is possible too for MP2 (not KcQc obviously) and SB is just about loose enough for KQ, and you're behind those and only drawing to a chop for two of the remaining queens. You missed out AKs/AK too, which you tie with. MP1 called three back and didn't fold the flop, so I'm curious what he could have. Of the hands you're ahead of, you'd have to consider it unlikely that QQ and KK continued on an ace-high flop All in all, I'd be astonished if I was ahead here. I wouldn't mind checking and hoping that I get to close the action on the river for a single bet if I don't improve.