tomlinson under 32.5 TD rush/rec

[crockpot]

i like this one. i can see why people would take the other side; tomlinson is on pace to top that mark easily, and he's on a huge roll lately, so he has "momentum".

i know TDs aren't exactly a poisson distribution, but the bet is breakeven at a poisson rate of 27 TD/season, which only one guy in history has topped.

tomlinson may sit out the last game of the season or at least most of it. even so, i think 11 TD in 6 games is a lot to ask for. any significant injury is an automatic under. guys who put up a huge TD season tend to regress a lot the next year, simply because the number of TD opportunities tends to level out over time. (the exception is priest holmes, who got hurt and missed half the next year.)

comments?

[JasonK]

I'd bet under, depending on the odds you're getting.

[Jibba]

Only problem is that it seems he has a very weak schedule remaining aside from Denver. But depending on the odds it doesn't sound like a bad play since I agree he may sit out a bit late in the season depending on how SD is looking.

[CieloAzor]

Eh, I'd be way too scared to hit the under. With the way things have been going the past month, he hits the over in 3 games. Next up: vs. Oak

[brendanb438]

Crockpot or Cielo is this bet being offered somewhere? If so where?

[Thremp]

I gave crock my views earlier. I'm uncertain of whether he sits or not and the competition is pretty weak coming up.

[Daliman]

Actually, TD's are EXACTLY the kind of thing to use for a poisson distribution, as it happens one at a time, although for such a comparatively small # of iinstances, it's not the most accurate for analysis. I don't understand what you used to get 27 as B/E though.

Either way, if there isn't too much spread between the #'s, I 'd say since over 32.5 is the "sexy" bet, the value, if there is any, is definitely going to be on under.

[Thremp]

Dali,

I think that TDs are also influenced by outside things such as your offense and who defenses key on etc. This can alter your ability to produce touchdowns. It's not like walks in baseball or strikeouts where it pretty easily recognized as %s.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
Dali,

I think that TDs are also influenced by outside things such as your offense and who defenses key on etc. This can alter your ability to produce touchdowns. It's not like walks in baseball or strikeouts where it pretty easily recognized as %s.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally agree. That's part of what I meant with it being such a sporadic event. Plus, the distribution of it would be all over the place. Player TD's are a stat that really can never approch any sort of "long run" analysis.

[Thremp]

So I'm confused why you would use a Poisson. I thought that was for fairly linear events. With equal chances?