A hand of LO8 from inside the asylum

[TMTTR]

Here is another hand (10/20 live) with a bunch of lunatics -- should I have gotten away from this somewhere??

Hero is in Hijack with: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Three limpers (UTG, UTG+1, MP), Hero limps, Button calls, SB raises, BB calls, all the limpes call.

Here are the reads:

SB: Really bad player that has all the tells in the world. You know when he is strong and he rarely makes a move without the goods.

BB: New _____ kid at the table that appears to enjoy the gamble. [blank left to avoid stereotyping of race/ethnicity that loves to gamble -- you fill it in]

UTG: Loves to make moves! Raises and reraises to represent hands (e.g., in an earlier hand he three bet into two players when I had the nut low (A3, here) and the board had a flush possible). Not very good. We called the turn and the river -- I got the whole low and 3rd nut flush got the whole high.

UTG+1: Better player, but also raises too much. Like UTG, he somehow believes he tries to knock people out too frequently with less than stellar hands -- but he is generally a good player.

MP: Drowning and just trying to make some money back.

Hijack: Hero

Button: generally tight passive

Flop (7 handed, 14SB): A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB bets, four callers, hero raises, button folds, SB 3-bets, three calls (MP folds), I cap it, all call.

Turn (5 handed, 17.5BB): K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [ouch!]

SB bets emphatically. BB calls, UTG raises, UTG+1 reraises!!!

Hero????

[T50_Omaha8]

Ouch indeed. In a normal game you could assume no moron is sticking around with KKxx, but it doesn't sound like you can make that assumption here. But I think we can be fairly confident no one has KKK here, since I'm not sure even a terrible player would raise/reraise a set into an all flush board in a huge multiway pot. It's possible SB has AAA on the flop, but his turn behavior doesn't follow this since he continues to bet the flush card. A23 with clubs makes much more sense.

Considering you're likely getting 8-1 and you'll boat up just under a quarter of the time, your made boat only has to be good around 60% of the time to turn a profit (considering you'll have to call a bet or two on the river, since I don't think you'll be betting yourself too often), and I think it probably IS good 60% of the time.

Remember, in this situation, if you fill up with a K or an A it actually carries positive information for you, making it less likely people had better board-match high holdings than you did in PREVIOUS betting rounds, like AA, AK, or KK. In other words, if you're beat for high by AKxx, KKxx, or AAxx, you'll fill up less often and thus lose less money on the river when you fold. AK is already pretty unlikely, since SB almost surely has an A and the hands he's repping don't usually have a king along with it. So I think I'd have to peel a call and hope this is one of the 1 in 6-to-7 times you take down the pot.

That's just my opinion on a rough hand, though.

[Dire]

[ QUOTE ]
It's possible SB has AAA on the flop, but his turn behavior doesn't follow this since he continues to bet the flush card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Remember that if he has AA, he has the Ac. It's very possible for him to have the nut flush and set. Even if he doesn't, the Ac is going to give him some comfort in betting again.

[thehun69]

Uggh....Great cards that went SQUADOUCHE. Well, let's do some math here: 17.5BB, you've bet, raise reraise...we can assume from the past action that...ok you know what, I'm going to save myself a lot of time writing and you a lot of time reading. This is a clear fold. It seems as if everyone and their grandmother are in this pot and you know it is going to get capped, and yes yes, with five people in the pot, assuming it gets capped, then there will be 37.5 BB in the pot (assuming you went in and called till it got capped) so you are putting in 3 BB to capture 34.5BB (I've backed out your bets). So yes, you are getting over 11-1 odds here. The problem is trying to figure out where you stand. We can assume someone has made the flush, but it is possible that someone has the kings, and while you are playing with maniacs, it is still possible. But again, in this room, people may be playing two pair, A and K, so if either of those pair up, you are no good there either. Your miracle card is the 10 on the river. 2% chance of that.

Long story short, if a blank had hit, like a nine, I would have said keep pushing, even though you will be laying implied odds for others to call, but you still have to make them pay. Here you gotta know you are beat and no clue where you are, and cards that you think may help, well, there is a good chance they don't. FOLD.

THE HUN

[TMTTR]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm. Is it?

SB bets: I put SB on either AA or a nut flush (with a possible low draw as well). Could he have both? I guess so...

BB calls: Clearly a low draw to me.

UTG raises: Given the player's tendencies, this is likely 23 or 24 who wants to eliminate some competition for the low...

UTG+1 3-bet: This threw me for a loop. I now put him on the nut flush... but then SB can not have AA... so what eles can he have? BTW, UTG+1 could not have had AA because he alway raised big hands preflop and I would not think he would be three betting a flush turn with just AA.

So when it comes to me, I cannot put anyone clearly on a better set -- I think a hand like KK24 is the only possibility and it is not very likely. I certainly do not have the best hand, but I have outs -- how many? The remaining T is definitely an out (1), and I am pretty comfortable with the three 5s being outs (4). If there is another A in the deck, it is probably good for me (there is certainly not two) -- lets call it half an out (4.5). A K is likely an out as well but I can't be certain -- so discount it to 1.5. So if I assume I have 6 outs and I am getting close to 8-1 odds on my money...

[thehun69]

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[ QUOTE ]
This is a clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm. Is it?

SB bets: I put SB on either AA or a nut flush (with a possible low draw as well). Could he have both? I guess so...

BB calls: Clearly a low draw to me.

UTG raises: Given the player's tendencies, this is likely 23 or 24 who wants to eliminate some competition for the low...

UTG+1 3-bet: This threw me for a loop. I now put him on the nut flush... but then SB can not have AA... so what eles can he have? BTW, UTG+1 could not have had AA because he alway raised big hands preflop and I would not think he would be three betting a flush turn with just AA.

So when it comes to me, I cannot put anyone clearly on a better set -- I think a hand like KK24 is the only possibility and it is not very likely. I certainly do not have the best hand, but I have outs -- how many? The remaining T is definitely an out (1), and I am pretty comfortable with the three 5s being outs (4). If there is another A in the deck, it is probably good for me (there is certainly not two) -- lets call it half an out (4.5). A K is likely an out as well but I can't be certain -- so discount it to 1.5. So if I assume I have 6 outs and I am getting close to 8-1 odds on my money...

[/ QUOTE ]

I still stand by my assessment here for the fact that there are FIVE people in this hand. So, other than you there are 16 other card combinations that are out there and the action is getting more and more aggressive. I have to disagree and would have to say that any A or K would NOT be helpful at all. With a flush already made, what is everyone else betting at? Even if someone has the made flush, and the other is trying to push a low draw. They are trying to catch something because they ALL know they have to be behind, assuming they have played this game. As well, to me, the fives are questionable too. It is very grey. But again with everyone in and jumping all over this, I have to say that middle set may not be good here and the cards that you think may help, probably would not. This has trouble hand written all over it. I'd save the three extra bets (because you know it will get capped) just to catch a river.

THE HUN.

[Dire]

Weak/predictable players raising often means AA or some A2x+ combo. The action seems to indicate AA although A23+draw is also very reasonable. In this particular spot, I would simply call the flop bet and reevaluate on the turn. You're either drawing nearly dead or dodging tons of bullets for what again will probably be half the pot. Not a great situation.

Even given the insanity of this table, I'd happily muck the turn. Your odds are not great. In the absolute best case scenario where the 3-bet gets called all the way around with no cap or fold - you'd be getting less than 10:1 when there's a decent chance you're drawing to 1 out and almost no chance that anywhere near all 9 of your outs are clean. That's in the absolute best case. If it gets capped or anybody folds, your odds plummet even more.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
should I have gotten away from this somewhere??

[/ QUOTE ]TMTTR - I think you should get away after the turn and resultant third betting round action. You have to put at least one of these clowns on a flush, so that you're drawing for the board to pair. You have ten outs, so the odds are 34 to 10 against that. Meanwhile you're getting better than 4 to 1 implied pot odds to call. Those odds would be favorable if you had a set of aces....

...But the thing is, if the board pairs, it's more likely to pair above your set (6 outs) than on or below it (1 out + 3 outs). That means even if you do make a full house on the river, it easily could be a losing full house.

Thus I think you have to fold to the quadruple(!) bet on the third betting round.

Buzz

[TMTTR]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
should I have gotten away from this somewhere??

[/ QUOTE ]TMTTR - I think you should get away after the turn and resultant third betting round action. You have to put at least one of these clowns on a flush, so that you're drawing for the board to pair. You have ten outs, so the odds are 34 to 10 against that. Meanwhile you're getting better than 4 to 1 implied pot odds to call. Those odds would be favorable if you had a set of aces....

...But the thing is, if the board pairs, it's more likely to pair above your set (6 outs) than on or below it (1 out + 3 outs). That means even if you do make a full house on the river, it easily could be a losing full house.

Thus I think you have to fold to the quadruple(!) bet on the third betting round.

Buzz

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But can I know that the five outs above my set (2 Aces, 3 Kings) are no good? I do have to discount these outs, but I can't completely disregard them...

so looking at 4 relatively clean outs and 5 uncertain outs (which I discounted to 2 or 2.5 -- see post above), is a call not at least reasonable (assuming the pot is laying close to 8-1 odds)?

[Buzz]

TMTTR - I made a mistake. Sorry. I was writing a correction (since posted) when you posted your response.

Your implied pot odds are huge. If there were 17.5 big bets in the pot at the start of the third betting round, and assuming no more raises, your opponents will collectively add another 12 big bets on the third betting round, and then if the board pairs on the river making you a winner, you should be able to get at least one more bet from someone. Looks to me like your implied pot odds are somewhere in the neighborhood of better than ten to one!

I don't like the three kings as outs here, but I like your other six outs.
35 bricks<ul type="square">1 ten (100%)
3 fives (95%)
2 aces (80%)
3 kings (50%)[/list]Those percentages are crudely estimated - hard to know what your opponents are holding here.

I'd appproximate it all as worth about 6 scoop outs. So make the odds against winning 38 to 6 against or six or seven to one against. Meanwhile you're getting better than ten to one implied pot odds. The trouble is, when you lose with a king or ace or five on the river, it's going to cost you more than the three big bets we're figuring as your cost to see the river. And I think if you consider that more closely, it's actually a very close decision. I don't have time to do that right now, and I certainly couldn't do it under actual game conditions.

But yeah, I'd probably take a chance and call here.

Buzz