NBA Teasers - Where's the EV

[kaboshedx]

Hi All,

So I've been following these NFL wong teasers and see why it is +EV when the tease crosses the 3 or 7 points mark.

But where does the +EV lie in basketball teasers? I usually will tease a favorite down to a pick 'em, is this a good strategy? I guess the answer to my question would be the old "if you thing your pick will win but has less of a chance of covering"...but is it this simple or are there some stats that should be taken into consideration when teasing NBA games?

[Performify]

Speaking off the cuff, its highly unlikely that there is a +EV point of teasers in basketball.

The +EV in NFL spreads comes from the uniform point distribution that is highly grouped around the 3 and 7 (and also across various numbers in between like 4, 5, 6) due to those primary means of scoring.

The same distribution likely doesn't exist in basketball at all.

[whipsaw]

This is an interesting idea, but i've never considered teasing. Do they do the same structure, where a 2 team 6 point teaser is generally at -110? If so, the only possible thing I could think would be to tease -6.5's to -0.5 and perhaps -3 to +3, but I'd have to do some testing.

[grafyx]

Orlando, a 4.5 pt favorite is about -190 on pinnacle now. The breakeven pt for betting -190 is about 65%.

For a 2 team 4.5 pt even money teaser, you need both teams to win about 71% of the time to be +EV.

So, in general teasing favorites down to pickem is -EV. You are better off just betting the moneyline if you like the game.

[greg44]

do you by any chance know the %'s of how often the spread lands on certain numbers for NBA... I'm assuming you do since you were able to say that its 65% for 4.5 points... If you could post it for say up to 10 points that would be very helpful... or PM me, doesn't matter to me

Thanks

[grafyx]

[ QUOTE ]
do you by any chance know the %'s of how often the spread lands on certain numbers for NBA... I'm assuming you do since you were able to say that its 65% for 4.5 points... If you could post it for say up to 10 points that would be very helpful... or PM me, doesn't matter to me

Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea. I'm just saying the breakeven point for a -190 bet is about 65%.

[kaboshedx]

thanks graf, I guess I should have crunched those numbers myself as that makes things alot clearer.

Those pick 'em teasers are just so damn tempting but I'll try to stay away this season as I think it is pretty unlikely that I can attain a 71% winrate.

But in saying that there looks to be some +EV in teasing if you are confident on both teams covering more than 71% and you pick and choose very cautiously. I will only tease games when I am 90%+ sure that both teams can cover. Sound good?

[beetman]

If you or anyone else was capable of picking teased teams that could cover at 90+%, you wouldn't need to waste your time with teasers as those teams would also cover straight bets at a spectacular rate.