CFB: How many games to play in a week?

[droopy0021]

I'm sure this is influenced by:

1) Your reasons for betting (fun/recreational or serious $$)
2) Bankroll & amount wagering
3) If you just want action/action/action

Certainly not picking on any of the frequent posters here(MT2R), but 39 wagers on a Saturday? You seem to put logic behind your picks, watch as many games as you can (which helps instead of just reading box scores/recaps).

But can you really win $$ taking that many games? Will the vig eventually catch up? Or just bad runs?

I would rather pick 1-3 games and bet a little more. I figure it'd be easier to follow the results and I could also perform more research.

Thoughts?

[agesux]

I used to bet alot of games trying to limit down. My problem is if you bet 20 games at 30 bux thats 600 bux on the line. So for sake of conversation we went 11-9 up 2 bets right? No, your losing $27 in juice roughly one bet. So now its more like you went 11-10.

If you choose to still wager 600 and make 12 $50 bets and hopefully 7-5 you will be up 1.5 units only paying half a bet in juice.

That was my thing. Its so hard to master this betting on sports thing, that i felt i was giving away wins by betting so many games.

[sshan83]

Theoretically, they say if you find an edge in a game, to bet it. I've never really believed that. I try to limit myself to 10 games maximum on Saturdays. The juice really ends up killing you. I have friends who are bookies who say that the people who bet over 10 games are never going to be winners. I know it's really hard sometimes because we look at lines and see 20 games that we like, but what's really helped me improve my records has been eliminating games where I feel a lean toward a side, but not an exceptionally strong lean. Of course, there are weeks when it has backfired on me where those teams would have won, but I think it works better in the long run. I keep strict record-keeping of my bets by week and I've noticed that my losing weeks have always been when I've bet 15+ games. My most successful weeks have been keeping it under 10 games. I also vary up my units and I realize that I always seem to be winning my bigger bets and losing my smaller ones (makes sense since bigger units are supposed to be for games with more edge)...which means if I had just stuck to the bigger bets then I would have won more.

[Homer]

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Theoretically, they say if you find an edge in a game, to bet it.

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Sounds good.

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I've never really believed that.

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Why?

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I try to limit myself to 10 games maximum on Saturdays. The juice really ends up killing you.

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How can the juice kill you if you're only betting with an edge? If you have found 15 games in which you have an edge, why not bet them all?

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I have friends who are bookies who say that the people who bet over 10 games are never going to be winners.

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Most people are losers to begin with. I'm sure the biggest degenerates bet tons of games each day/week. But that doesn't mean there is a cap on games with value of 10.

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I know it's really hard sometimes because we look at lines and see 20 games that we like, but what's really helped me improve my records has been eliminating games where I feel a lean toward a side, but not an exceptionally strong lean.

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Okay, this makes sense. However, it simply means those games were not beating the vig. It doesn't mean you should reject betting every game where you have an edge.

[agesux]

I bet with "a GUY" where there are no ML bets and all bets are -110. That may be my problem? I only started really betting this year and am still trying to learn the system. Would you recomend that i go online?

[MyTurn2Raise]

I'm very interested in other perspectives on this question. I've questioned myself a number of times on how many bets I've placed. I just assumed that it was due to my risk averse nature. Am I actually placing too many bets?

[droopy0021]

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I bet with "a GUY" where there are no ML bets and all bets are -110.Would you recomend that i go online?

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Yes/yes/yes....for the following reasons:

Easier to line shop

Often can get better than -110 (part of line shopping)

Can make your bets anytime (don't have to call between 10:30am & 12:00pm on Sunday for NFL, which might be difficult if you're busy)

For the novice, easier to stay out of trouble. Online you're putting the cash out for the wager and getting it back if you win. With a bookie, you're betting "funny $$" and IMHO, easier to chase bets (ie, if down $150 from Sat & Sun games, why not go $200 on MNF?). You can also wager smaller amounts than with a bookie.

[Homer]

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I bet with "a GUY" where there are no ML bets and all bets are -110. That may be my problem? I only started really betting this year and am still trying to learn the system. Would you recomend that i go online?

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Yes. Use a reduced juice book. You only have to pick 51.2% winners to beat -105 lines, as opposed to 52.4% to beat standard -110 lines.

If you're using a bookie who is slow to move lines, you may sometimes be able to get better value betting through him. It can't hurt to have more outs, though.

[fun160]

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For sake of conversation we went 11-9 up 2 bets right? No, your losing roughly one bet in juice. So now its more like you went 11-10. If you choose to still the same amount and make 12 bets and hopefully 7-5 you will be up 1.5 units only paying half a bet in juice.

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The problem with your example is that the difference between 11-9 and 7-5 is 4-4. So you're saying if you break even on eight additional bets it costs you more juice. Isn't that self-evident?

The bottom line is that if a wager is +EV, take the bet, even if it lowers your win percentage.

[MyTurn2Raise]

My general philosophy:
If my estimated edge is greater than the juice, I bet.
If not, I don't.
I weight how much I bet based on this estimated edge, but I've only bet over 2% of my roll once.
I never bet just for action. I'm one of the most risk averse people you'll ever meet. I get plenty of action just from watching a game.





Specific philosophy:
Last year, I only posted 32 picks for the entire season. They were my top picks and Illinois picks.

There were numerous requests for me to post all my picks this year, so I have sort of. I still make alot more halftime and live betting picks that just are not feasible to post here. I've started posting nearly all of my picks. Next year, I'll add in unit weighting as I'm getting more and more comfortable.
This year was going along quite nicely until this past weekend (92-71), which was an exceptionally odd weekend for college football. Quite a few of my picks involved the top teams that went down in flames, many unexpected. I've self-ridiculed my 'square' fav picks, but last week was the first time in 3 or 4 years were the favs were consistently hammered in college football. Oh well
Last week, I made 31 picks and went 18-13.

I'm now barely down on the year at 102-100. I've hit most of my big plays (7-4 on POTW and hammered tOSU/Iowa game which was, jokingly, my POTL4Y and the only game i've ever exceeded 2.5% of my bankroll for betting). I'm somewhat bummed, because last week destroyed a season of profits, but I don't think too many picks were to blame. It was just rare for so many odd things to happen this late in the season, which happens to be the time of the year I place numerous bets.
The reason I'm off my yearly goals, in all honesty, is my lack of success betting Illinois games. I've been over 60% betting the Illini since '97. My 5-10 results this year are very far below my expectations and hurt me big time.
I will say it sucks that the 50+ hours/week I spend on college football has had a negative return thus far this season.