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#1
11-09-2006, 02:14 PM
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The 2008 Campaign has begun
AP
Cliffs Notes: Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa has announced that he is running for President and has filed documents to form a campaign committee. Analysis: As much as I love politics, I could have used a few weeks off. Oh well. 
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#3
11-09-2006, 02:32 PM
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Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
With a strong showing early, boosted by his Iowa base, I think Vilsack could put himself into the mix for a VP nod. I really doubt he will have the money and name recognition to make much of dent in the presidential.
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#4
11-09-2006, 03:08 PM
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Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
I am still new to the politicing scene(only 20 years old). How long till all the dems and reps come out of the woodwork and make it offical about running for president?
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#6
11-09-2006, 03:22 PM
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Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
[ QUOTE ]
Most of them will declare by August or September. Not unheard of to get a straggler in November (next november). [/ QUOTE ] Ok, then they campaign for the primaries which is around march 08?
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#7
11-09-2006, 04:49 PM
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Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
[ QUOTE ]
I am still new to the politicing scene(only 20 years old). How long till all the dems and reps come out of the woodwork and make it offical about running for president? [/ QUOTE ] As it is right now, you can probably make a short list candidates from each party with a very real shot of running and winning the nomination. While an "official announement" is a nice way to spill some ink and get some face time, you can narrow down the possible field right now, regardless of an official announcement -- running for President is a lengthy process and many have been getting their organizations, fund-raisers, PACs, strategy teams, etc. in place for a quite a while now: Democrats Almost Certainly Running: Sen. Clinton former Sen. Edwards Gov. Vilsack Sen. Bayh Sen. Feingold Wesley Clark Gov. Richardson Democrats Maybe Running But With No Real Shot of Winning the Nomination: Sen. Kerry Sen. Biden Sen. Dodd Wildcards: former VP Gore Sen. Obama ---------------- GOPers Almost Certainly Running: Sen. McCain Gov. Romney Gov. Huckabee former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani former House Speaker Newt Gingrich GOPers Maybe Running But With No Real Short of Winning the Nomination: former Sen. Allen Sen. Hagel Sen. Brownback former Sen. Frist Rep. Tancredo Wilcards: Gov. Jeb Bush Sec. State Rice I think this is pretty comprehensive. If I've left anyone out, they likely fall under the "No Real Shot of Winning" groups, with the caveat that Howard Dean was relatively unkown and a huge long shot to win the '04 Dem. Nomination in the autumn of 2002. He obviously didn't win, but it's hard to say he didn't become very relevant in the nomination process.
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#8
11-09-2006, 05:10 PM
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Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I am still new to the politicing scene(only 20 years old). How long till all the dems and reps come out of the woodwork and make it offical about running for president? [/ QUOTE ] As it is right now, you can probably make a short list candidates from each party with a very real shot of running and winning the nomination. While an "official announement" is a nice way to spill some ink and get some face time, you can narrow down the possible field right now, regardless of an official announcement -- running for President is a lengthy process and many have been getting their organizations, fund-raisers, PACs, strategy teams, etc. in place for a quite a while now: Democrats Almost Certainly Running: Sen. Clinton former Sen. Edwards Gov. Vilsack Sen. Bayh Sen. Feingold Wesley Clark Gov. Richardson Democrats Maybe Running But With No Real Shot of Winning the Nomination: Sen. Kerry Sen. Biden Sen. Dodd Wildcards: former VP Gore Sen. Obama ---------------- GOPers Almost Certainly Running: Sen. McCain Gov. Romney Gov. Huckabee former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani former House Speaker Newt Gingrich GOPers Maybe Running But With No Real Short of Winning the Nomination: former Sen. Allen Sen. Hagel Sen. Brownback former Sen. Frist Rep. Tancredo Wilcards: Gov. Jeb Bush Sec. State Rice I think this is pretty comprehensive. If I've left anyone out, they likely fall under the "No Real Shot of Winning" groups, with the caveat that Howard Dean was relatively unkown and a huge long shot to win the '04 Dem. Nomination in the autumn of 2002. He obviously didn't win, but it's hard to say he didn't become very relevant in the nomination process. [/ QUOTE ] Vilsack, Feingold and Richardson might belong in the "no real shot of winning" camp. I don't mean to sounds like a cynic, but they all seem like the classic "5th place in the New Hampshire primary" candidate. Plus Dems will have at least one (HRC) and possibly 2-3 huge names running, which kills fundraising efforts. Wesley Clark is in the "wild card" category as far as I know. Duncan Hunter is running for the Republicans but has no shot at winning. Pataki should be listed somewhere on the Republican side but I don't know which category he belongs in. In terms of most-to-least likely to become our next president, we're probably looking at: 1) McCain (R) 2) Clinton (D) 3) Giuliani (R) 4) Obama (D) 5) Gore (D) 6) Edwards (D) 7) Romney (R) 8) Huckabaee (R) 9) Bayh (D) 10) Gingrich (R)
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#9
11-09-2006, 05:49 PM
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Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
[ QUOTE ]
As it is right now, you can probably make a short list candidates from each party with a very real shot of running and winning the nomination. While an "official announement" is a nice way to spill some ink and get some face time, you can narrow down the possible field right now, regardless of an official announcement -- running for President is a lengthy process and many have been getting their organizations, fund-raisers, PACs, strategy teams, etc. in place for a quite a while now: [/ QUOTE ] Nice list to focus the discussion. On the Dem side I think Biden has a decent shot because he will "wear well" like Kerry did. I think W. Clark has no shot unless he's much improved his game and Edwards goes away. Edwards would surprise me because I don't think he will do well outside of the South. Richardson talks well so it wouldn't surprise me if he leaps out in front in Iowa/NH where he gets to go door to door. What I'm most confident about is that Hillary Clinton will almost definitely finish exactly 2nd. On the Republican side, I think Romney has the best shot, followed by Frist. He's been my governor for the last 4 years and I can't remember a single thing he said, but you're left with the vague impression that he's competent. Someone I know described him as an "empty suit" before he got elected, and that's exactly what he is, but an empty suit is vaguely acceptable to all. I think McCain will finish 2nd no matter what.
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#10
11-09-2006, 04:24 PM
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Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
[ QUOTE ]
Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa has announced that he is running for President and has filed documents to form a campaign committee. [/ QUOTE ] This could impact the Democratic nomination process in a way similar to 1992. In that year, Iowa Senator Tom Harkin ran for President. As a result, none of the Democratic contenders bothered to campaign in the Iowa Caucus. It became a non-factor in the election. Instead, all the candidates focused on New Hampshire and former Massachusetts Senator Paul Tsongas got the win over Bill Clinton.
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