Chickenfly's NBA Picks 11/8/06

[Chickenfly69]

YTD: 14-3-1 +13 Units

Today's Picks: All picks are 1 Unit

Indiana @ Washington - Washington -4

Indiana is playing its second back to back of the year and they played Philly at home yesterday. Washington is a much better home team than road team and they also have more offensive power than Indiana. I was actually tempted to bet the over in this game but decided not to, but I predict a high scoring game with Gilbert going for 30-35 since all there is to stop him is the slow jamal tinsley and the undersized darrel armstrong, jasikevicius is injured.

Seattle @ Orlando - Seattle +7

Seattle played really well yesterday against the Heat and would have won if Ray Allen hadn't missed his first two free throws of the season (miracle). So now they play against Orlando who is still having turnover problems at the point with Nelson. Orlando is 0-2 ATS on two days rest. I think it will be a close game with Seattle pulling off the upset win.

Dallas @ LA Clippers - LA Clippers -3

All I know is just fade Dallas this November, they are playing with post dramatic stress from game 3 of the finals. They haven't won a game since then so what makes them think they will win a game away from home without Josh Howard. The Clippers are beating teams without a significant contribution from Elton Brand as Tim Thomas and Cassel are picking up most of the slack. If Elton has a 25 point night this game equals blow out.

Houston @ Milwaukee - Milwaukee -2

Houston is playing its 4th game in 5 nights, also this is on the road. Milwaukee played horrible in Chicago, but Milwaukee is a good home team. The home team is 7-3 ATS in this matchup. I also don't expect Mo Williams & Charlie Bell to have two bad games in a row, they shot a combined 6-25 against Chicago.

Houston @ Milwaukee - Under 190

Houston is usually the team to decide the tempo of the game as they did against Memphis last night. Houston hates to run or either can't run, last night - a whopping 2 fast break points. Memphis blew them outta the water with 6. They will force Milwaukee to slow down and score in its halfcourt. Also Milwaukee only had 8 fast break points against the Bulls, this will probably be higher against the Rockets but not enough to go over 190.

Detroit @ Sacramento - Detroit +1 1st Half /Detroit +2
I think Detroit will really dominate this game and win by double digits. Bibby is still playing with an injurd hand and it is showing with his 5.3 turnovers per game, there was a game in which he had 11. Wallace is angry and this is usually when he plays his best. Detroit will grab the lead and run away with it.

Philly @ Toronto - Toronto -2 1st Half

Philly is coming off a back to back and has to travel from Indiana to Toronto. So look for a lack luster 1st Half. Also Philly gives up 29 points in the second quarter compared to them only scoring 20. I am only betting the 1st Half on this game because Allen Iverson is known for him comebacks and Philly always has a better 2nd Half then 1st.

LA Lakers @ Portland - LA Lakers -4

Even though it is a back to back for LA, they only have to travel to Portland. Also the Lakers have been playing great basketball with Lamar really putting on a show and Bynum stepping up big time both of the offensive and defensive ends. Portland is also without its penetrator in Brandon Roy (Heel) and Przybilla is still out, so Bynum could have another big game (he is only 19).

LA Lakers @ Portland - Under 199

I got this line last night, it looks like the line is now 195 but I would still take it at that. Portland is horrible on offense, especially now with only Randolph as their only option. Also with Kobe back the Lakers run less. They might also try featuring Bynum more this game which equals post game which equals time consuming offensive sets.

Phoenix @ San Antonio - Over 203.5

San Antonio has been showing a knack for scoring these first few scoring 97, 103, and 105 in its three wins. I expect San Antonio to win this game too, but I don't like the -5.5 line. Phoenix has scored 108, 104, and 106 in its 3 losses. Phoenix is one of the only fast break teams in the league that can determine the tempo of the game, especially against San Antonio. Its last two meetings the finals were : SA 108 PHO 102 & SA 117 PHO 93. So look for this to be high scoring especially witht he addition of Francisco Elson - a big that can run the floor well.

Well that 11 picks, heres hoping for 11-0. I would love to hear any comments or opposing reasoning to the picks, GL.

[Queensgrad]

I agree with all your stuff. Very nice, GL. I got the Clips forgetting they have Thomas too, so reading your analysis makes me feel even better.

I also like Phoenix +6.5. The way they shoot 3's and can score in bunches, and SA's poor free throws makes me think the final score will be in the spurs favour but the Suns making it very close in the end.

The lakers looked good last night, Bynum was a diamond in the rough. Its BtB for Kobe, but he only played 35 minutes last night. I see them running over Portland too.

[cacheman]

Bynum may be like discovering oil for the Lakers. 19 year old 7-footer that will add 25-30 pounds of muscle over the next 5 years. Phil Jackson is probably begging Jerry Buss for an extension$$$$$$$$$$$

[ImNew]

Good write ups [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

LA Lakers -4 @ Portland is a good price. Historically these two teams are pretty much even ATS especially when Portland is at home (see their last 10 meetings, a number of them had landed exactly on the spread), so I think this line has a good chance to come into play, and you might just profit from that [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[cacheman]

Like all the picks Chick, but not pulling the trigger on Lakers under unless it goes back up. I was a little concerned with Detroit, but with Miller out and Bibby hurting, I see Detroit getting it done tonight. I'm rolling with you on the rest of them as well.

[Chickenfly69]

Thanks for the support guys I really appreciate it.

[WeighingMachine]

[ QUOTE ]
Dallas @ LA Clippers - LA Clippers -3

All I know is just fade Dallas this November, they are playing with post dramatic stress from game 3 of the finals. They haven't won a game since then so what makes them think they will win a game away from home without Josh Howard. The Clippers are beating teams without a significant contribution from Elton Brand as Tim Thomas and Cassel are picking up most of the slack. If Elton has a 25 point night this game equals blow out.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm really surprised that the line hasn't moved much (it has actually moved a bit in favor of the Mavs) since the Josh Howard injury news. He has in essence been their second best player this year and is at worst their third best player. The defending champs have a real chance at going 0-5, with the Clips and Suns on the road back to back.

[tdarko]

WM,

Josh Howard is clearly the second most valuable Mav and his value is a lot closer to Dirk's than some people think.

[WeighingMachine]

[ QUOTE ]
WM,

Josh Howard is clearly the second most valuable Mav and his value is a lot closer to Dirk's than some people think.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am with you. I like Jason Terry too and didn't want offend any Jason Terry fans.

[Artdogg]

[ QUOTE ]
I also like Phoenix +6.5. The way they shoot 3's and can score in bunches, and SA's poor free throws makes me think the final score will be in the spurs favour but the Suns making it very close in the end.


[/ QUOTE ]

you should probably take the Spurs with the points or lay off it. The Suns are starting Amare @ Barbosa last I heard earlier today which means 6-7 Marion is going to be matched up with Tim [censored] Duncan. Lots more double teams then normal, lots more wide open 3's for the Spurs, and probably a 40 rebound difference as apposed to the normal 20. Im a big suns fan btw.