PokerFink's NFC Rankings (Week 9)

[PokerFink]

Disclaimer: My rankings are NOT a traditional power rankings. If you are unfamiliar with how I do these, please see this post for my criteria.

Week 9 Rankings

<font color="blue">1. CHICAGO 7-1: </font>Shooting Yourself In The Foot – Take 1: For the second time in three games, Chicago managed to turn the ball over six times. Devin Hester is a nightmare for both teams returning punts; he fumbled two, including one where he inexplicably caught it at his own five yard line. Miami recovered and scored an easy touchdown, while Chicago recovered the second fumble. Meanwhile, Rex Grossman has driven his MVP bandwagon off a cliff. His statistics pretty much tell the story: 18/42 (43%), 210 Yards (5 YPA), 1TD, 3INT, 1 Fumble, 3 Sacks, 37 Rating. Chicago, after looking invincible through five games, is heading to New York with their #1 ranking up for grabs. I seriously considered dropping them this week – it’s very close. But Chicago still has the benefit of an easier schedule down the stretch. NEXT: at New York.

<font color="blue">2. NEW YORK 6-2: </font> New York is playing better right now than Chicago, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they win next week. Their defense has completely turned it around. Their D-Line has been getting good pressure, and we all know what happens when you pressure Grossman. Manning, like his brother, utilizes the no-huddle offense very well. New York’s game winning drive was almost exclusively no-huddle. NEXT: vs. Chicago.

<font color="blue">3. NEW ORLEANS 6-2: </font>As expected, a Saint will win the NFC offensive rookie of the year. Except it’s not Reggie Bush, it’s Marques Colston, who had a monster game (11-123-1). Drew Brees (24/32-314-3-0) continues to be the offseason’s best pickup. From the running items department, Reggie Bush continues to be terrible running the football; Bush had 11 carries for -5 yards. Yes, that's negative five yards. Bush already had the worst rushing DPAR in the NFL before this week, I can’t wait to see the DPAR on this week’s performance. NEXT: at Pittsburgh.

<font color="blue">4. ST. LOUIS 4-4: </font>Shooting Yourself In The Foot – Take 2: St. Louis racked up 452 yards against a pretty good defense today, yet scored only 17 points. How? They fumbled four times, losing three. They punted three times from Kansas City’s side of the field and had a failed 4th down conversion at the Kansas City 5 yard line after driving the length of the field. Eight penalties. Plus their defense couldn’t stop Kansas City ever, meaning poor field position all game. The good news: they still have San Fran, Arizona and Oakland and Washington on the schedule. NEXT: at Seattle.

<font color="blue">5. ATLANTA 5-3: </font>Shooting Yourself In The Foot – Take 3: Three turnovers, 9 penalties, zero defense. The good side of Michael Vick: 10 rushes, 80 yards. The bad side of Michael Vick: 17/32, 5 YPA, 2 INT, 1 Fumble, 2 Sacks. Look everyone: it’s been several years now. Vick is what we thought he was. Every once in a while he puts some good games together, but he hasn’t turned the corner and probably never will. But pin this particular loss on the defense, which allowed 435 yards to a Detroit team that is pretty mediocre offensively (19th in DVOA coming in). NEXT: vs. Cleveland.

<font color="blue">6. MINNESOTA 4-4: </font>“This is an 8-8 football team if I ever saw one.” – Me, Week 5. With their cake schedule they should still finish above .500, but that doesn’t make them any good. 238 yards and 3 points against San Francisco is inexcusable. NEXT: vs. Green Bay.

<font color="blue">7. PHILADELPHIA 4-4: </font>With Minny and Atlanta both losing to crap teams, Philly’s wildcard hopes improved dramatically. Can they pull a New York and use the bye week to turn things around? I hope so. Home games against Washington and Tennessee could jump-start a run down the stretch. By the way, I’ll be at the Linc on Sunday, anyone else going? NEXT: vs. Washington.

<font color="blue">8. SEATTLE 4-3: </font>How will Seneca Wallace fare against an Oakland defense that is actually pretty average? Can Oakland really win three games in a row? Looking ahead, the pending returns of Alexander and Hasselbeck will do little to improve the defense, which has been surprisingly poor this year, ranking 24th in DVOA. If St. Louis can tear apart Kansas City’s defense (ranked 9th coming into this week), they should move the ball against Seattle as well. Just like New York, their ranking really depends on next week’s game, and I’m still taking St. Louis. NEXT: vs. St. Louis

<font color="blue">9. DALLAS 4-4: </font>Shooting Yourself In The Foot – Take 4: Dallas committed 11 penalties for a mind boggling 153 yards. Owens dropped passes, as usual. Vanderjagt missed a big field goal, as usual. A week after potentially salvaging their season in Carolina, Dallas just blew this one. With their remaining schedule, they’re pretty much toast. On the plus side, Romo (24/36-284-2-0) continues to play well. NEXT: at Arizona.

<font color="blue">10. CAROLINA 4-4: </font>While we’re talking defensive MVP’s in the awards thread, Julius Peppers and his 8 sacks (3rd in NFL) and 3 forced fumbles (4th) says hello. NEXT: vs. Tampa Bay.

<font color="blue">11. GREEN BAY 3-5: </font>Ahman Green sighting: 24 touches, 130 yards. They outgained Buffalo by 243 yards but Favre threw a pair of picks (one returned for a score) and fumbled two snaps. I’ll be honest – I’m a little happy they lost so we don’t have to hear the Brett Favre rejuvenation stories all week long. Now do me and my wallet a favor and beat Minny, thanks. NEXT: at Minnesota.

<font color="blue">12. WASHINGTON 3-5: </font>I often rip on the “old-school” coaches for their passive play calling. Well, major kudos to Joe Gibbs for going for it on 4th and goal from the 1 yard line early in the game. Portis got stuffed, but they turned around and recorded a safety on the next play, which is better than a field goal anyway. If that’s not an advertisement for going for it, I don’t know what is. NEXT: at Philadelphia.

<font color="blue">13. SAN FRANSISCO 3-5 (Up 1): </font>Our first movers of the week. I guess San Fran watched film of Oakland and Tampa’s recent victories, as the Niners won despite gaining well under 200 yards on offense. NEXT: at Detroit.

<font color="blue">14. TAMPA BAY 2-6 (Down 1): </font>What happened to Cadillac Williams? 12 carries, 39 yards. He’s averaging only 3.7 yards per carry for the year. Tampa completely shut down Reggie Bush, but apparently forgot that New Orleans has some other weapons. NEXT: at Carolina.

<font color="blue">15. DETROIT 2-6 (Up 1): </font>Out of the basement! Woohoo! I’m curious what this team will do with Kitna. He’s played decently this year, and this team has needs other than QB that they must address in the draft. But he will be 35 next season and they have to draft a franchise QB eventually. NEXT: vs. San Francisco.

<font color="blue">16. ARIZONA 1-7 (Down 1): </font>Remember when this team was 1-0? Ouch. NEXT: vs. Dallas.

Commentary

I’ve never seen as many teams shoot themselves in the foot as I did this week. I watched WAS-DAL in the early game, and DAL completely blew it with the penalties/drops. I watched PIT-DEN in the 4pm game, and Pittsburgh completely blew it with the fumbles. (By the way, at one point I yelled "It's a fuuuumble" Berman Style as Santonio Holmes fielded a punt - and sure enough he fumbled about four seconds later. Good times.) And then New England played like crap tonight. If I’m going to spend 10 hours watching football, can I just see one well-played game? Please? Is that too much to ask?

If you’re wondering, here are my traditional power rankings of who I think would beat who on a neutral field right now:

1) NYG
2) CHI
3) NO
4) PHI
5) DAL
6) ATL
7) STL
8) MIN
9) SEA
10) CAR
11) WAS
12) GB
13) TB
14) SF
15) DET
16) ARZ

[PokerFink]

Poll Time.

[lastchance]

I think Philly beats NO on a neutral field.

I have the Giants in Giants-Bears, solely because of HFA. I have Seattle in Rams-Hawks, because homerism is awesome, and because of HFA.

[PokerFink]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Philly beats NO on a neutral field.

[/ QUOTE ]

Before the JAX game, I would have agreed with you. Philly's early season form is better than New Orleans. But there is a very real chance that Philly is turning into a head case and will fall apart. I'll take a confident Saints team over an Eagles team that may be psychological mess right now.

[Assani Fisher]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Philly beats NO on a neutral field.



[/ QUOTE ]

People accuse me of being a Philly hater, but its really that I just react to these crazy homer statements like this. Philly has beaten one DECENT team this year(Dallas). Other than that they've lost to every good or above average team they've played. Their other wins are GB, Hous, and SF.

New Orleans is one of the better teams in the league.

-NO beat Philly when they played
-NO defeated TB 31-14 while Philly lost to TB
-Philly is 4-4 while NO is 6-2
-NO looked great in their last game winning in a blowout; Philly scored 6 points at home in their last game.

Seriously, please explain to me how you can make this statement. And please don't tell me how "good" Philly has looked in their losses.

[MacGuyV]

For Christ sakes let it go man. Is 'lastchance' even an Eagles fan?

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
For Christ sakes let it go man. Is 'lastchance' even an Eagles fan?

[/ QUOTE ]
Umm... Let me think about that.

Edit: I think not.

Sea-Stl game thread

I just trust DVOA + twominutewarning + randomness of fumble recoveries a lot.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
-NO beat Philly when they played

[/ QUOTE ]

In New Orleans, likely one of the biggest HFAs this year, by 3 points. This would seem to bear out that the teams are relatively equal.

[ QUOTE ]
-NO defeated TB 31-14 while Philly lost to TB

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is the biggest luckbox win in the NFL since... well, since the Giants beat Philly. 2 Interception TDs and the longest K-ball FG in history.

[ QUOTE ]
-Philly is 4-4 while NO is 6-2

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks almost entirely to favorable luck for NO and unfavorable luck for Philly. A 2 win difference after 8 games is hardly significant.

[ QUOTE ]
-NO looked great in their last game winning in a blowout; Philly scored 6 points at home in their last game.

[/ QUOTE ]

The game was close at halftime agaisnt one of the worst teams in the league. Philly lost to one of the best.

[Assani Fisher]

[ QUOTE ]

Thanks almost entirely to favorable luck for NO and unfavorable luck for Philly. A 2 win difference after 8 games is hardly significant.


[/ QUOTE ]

Stop it...thats just silly.

You call it "bad luck" that they lost to TB because of the FG. But why didn't they just beat them by 17 points like New Orleans did? The bottom line is that if you put teams away and win convincingly then you won't have to worry about "luck."

What "favorable luck" has New Orleans had? Here are their wins: 19-14, 34-27, 23-3, 24-21, 27-24, and 31-14. If you notice, in every single one of those games they could've had that same "unfavorable luck" of the other team making a long FG and they still wouldn't have necessarily lost.

TB is a really bad team this year. If Philly wants to be considered a top team then they should blow them out by 17 like NO did and not put it in the hands of "luck."

And finally...I've already addressed this issue. You seem to think that a 62 yard FG is luck. WEll maybe, but I also think that Westbrook's TD right before that was luck. So does that not even out? If anything thats 4 extra point for Philly, so they got "luckier."

[Semtex]

I think Giants-Bears game is dependent on which Bears offense comes to play. There is the pound teams into the ground/record the highest point differentials in recent history offense. If they show up New York is going to feel like they were back in Seattle (which is funny b/c that offense destroyed the Seahawks as well). Then of course there is the totally inept version which we've seen in a couple games. Basically, the Giants have no control over their destiny this weekend.