how much to bet

RDWallace · #1 01-31-2006, 08:11 AM

Prior to this hand I'd played several pots with villain, none of which went past the flop. He likely views me as solid, I know him to be generally tight and rockish. On the river, what range do you have him on? What is the right amount to bet to extract value against this range? I didn't even think about going for a c/r because if he were to value bet a possible flush it would likely be for less than a PSB and he would not call a raise. Thanks for the read.
-RDW

BB ($689.50)
UTG ($459.80)
UTG+1 ($1191)
MP1 ($1707.05)
MP2 ($1477)
CO ($1172)
Button ($885)
Hero ($1355)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $10, 2 folds, MP2 calls $10, CO calls $10, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($50) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $30, UTG calls $30, MP2 calls $30, CO folds, Hero calls $30.

Turn: ($170) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 bets $90, Hero raises to $250, BB folds, UTG folds, MP2 calls $160.

River: ($660) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

RDWallace · #2 01-31-2006, 08:39 AM

Ok so I was hoping to get some feedback before I posted this, but here goes. On the river, I folded with $765 behind, having invested nearly half my stack, getting basically 3-1 on my call with the 4th nuts in hand. Thoughts?

Hero bets $300, MP2 raises to $1237, Hero folds.

Hattifnatt · #3 01-31-2006, 08:41 AM

I would have called here for that price (probably even for a worse price) even if I wouldnt like it very much. He might have the A-flush or for example A2s for a lower full.

I definitely think he would had raised preflop with AA or QQ (after a limper, if he has QQ then I think he would had folded on the turn).

Of course he could have the quads but that we cant worry about very much.

not_da_nizzles · #4 01-31-2006, 04:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok so I was hoping to get some feedback before I posted this, but here goes. On the river, I folded with $765 behind, having invested nearly half my stack, getting basically 3-1 on my call with the 4th nuts in hand. Thoughts?

Hero bets $300, MP2 raises to $1237, Hero folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have led river for $400-$450 and gleefully called his all-in. You likely gave the pot to A2 or a flush.

mj

RED FACE · #5 01-31-2006, 05:28 PM

The more I look at this the more I think you're behind.

Tight rockish villain doesn't have any A2 here imo. He can limp AA pre and given the board and action it fits as does 22. What doesn't fit is AK and prob AQ as they most often raise pre (and AQ doesn't call the turn cr often imo). A hand like JKspades doesn't call the flop bet imo so he doesn't just have a flush draw on turn. He bet and called the turn cr in position. This either means a draw w top pair or a huge hand. He could play like this w AJspades maybe.

So here's his range, AA, 22, AJspades so I think that puts you behind 4 possible combinations and ahead of 1. River you'd have to call 937 for 2197 I think, so, good fold but I couldn't have done it. If you can put him on AKspades as well then it's very close.

If I had played this I wouldn't have thought it through and I would've decided I'm not folding so I just want to get called as much as possible by hands I beat so I at first thought to bet $400.

pheasant tail (no 18) · #6 01-31-2006, 06:30 PM

You say he is rockish. Based on this I think you can eliminate AA. Would he really limp pf w/ AA in position after several limpers?

No way he made it to river w/ QQ--no way if your read is accurate.

22, the other hand that beats you seems unlikely. Flopping bottom set in position w/ 4 people putting in $30 begs for a big raise 99% it seems to me.

I think he had Ax of spades or A2 90+%. And getting 3 to 1 this is about the easiest call I can imagine short of a lock.

That said, I think your river bet should be a bit higher. If he called your turn bet, he either was on the come and made it or had a full house already and will call.

I wonder why you checked the flop if you are only going to call after every one else calls. I think a raise is in order and would like to see more views on this street.

wheatrich · #7 01-31-2006, 06:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Would he really limp pf w/ AA in position after several limpers?

[/ QUOTE ]

Never fails to surprise me when I see this.

The river fold was awful--if he's got 22/AA/QQ he's just going to have to show me it.

RED FACE · #8 01-31-2006, 07:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You say he is rockish. Based on this I think you can eliminate AA. Would he really limp pf w/ AA in position after several limpers?

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, I thought he was first limper, not second. This reduces the likelyhood of AA very significantly imo.

JFM · #9 01-31-2006, 08:53 AM

What hand would MP limp with that A2? A8? 22? Axs?
Iwould make it around 250 and call any raise. If he has 22 then so bee it.

J. Sawyer · #10 01-31-2006, 09:39 AM

You definitely need to bet that river, I'm not really sure what the best # is... at least half the pot i'd say

Almost all of the time he raises AA/QQ preflop and 22 is highly unlikely. I call the river everytime w/out exception. Although expecting to lose sometimes.