Anybody slow down here? ($3/$6)

[stickdude]

Early in my poker career, someone told me that when you flop a set, if you don't win a lot of money or lose a lot of money, you're probably not playing it correctly. This is the kind of hand he was talking about.

Villian had just sat down a couple of orbits ago, and I didn't even have any datamined stats on him...

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $340
Button: $35.50
SB: $133.50
BB: $94

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, SB folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero caps</font>, Button folds, BB calls.

<font color="blue">The table had been pretty aggressive pre-flop, so the 3-bet may or may not have meant anything here</font>

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (10.5SB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

<font color="blue">Well, that's about a good a flop as I could hope for. At this point, I can narrow his range to AA (6 ways), AK (12 ways), KK (3 ways), and maybe KJ (3 ways). I'm ahead of everything but KK, so I see no reason to slow down yet. I didn't cap the flop because I want him to lead out on the turn.</font>

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8.25BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero caps</font>, BB calls.

<font color="blue">Hmmm... He's not slowing down, either. That tells me that AA and AK are less likely, and KK/KJ are more likely...</font>

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (16.25BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

<font color="blue">He's not jamming the pot with QT, so I'm not worried about the straight. After his 3-bet, though, I was probably 90% sure he had KK. Still, I'm obviously not folding for 1 BB in a pot this large</font>

Results:
Final pot: 22.25BB


So, does anybody slow things down with middle set on a dry board? If so, where?

[poisonxfree]

If I don't call down from the turn 3 bet, then I only call the river. This is barring any reads that he's a maniac.

[Scary_Tiger]

I think you played it fine.

[dano]

I'm slowing down on the river. I just call.

If you are ahead on the river, you get 1 extra BB by raising and lose 2 if you you're behind. I don't think you're ahead often enough to raise that river.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm slowing down on the river. I just call.

If you are ahead on the river, you get 1 extra BB by raising and lose 2 if you you're behind. I don't think you're ahead often enough to raise that river.

[/ QUOTE ]

[danzasmack]

If you call the turn 3bet and raise the river you get 6 bets in, which for some reason is what I want to do after reading your post.

I would have played this hand the same as you though, maybe.

[Heisenb3rg]

I call river bet and not raise it.

There are both 3 ways he can have KJ and KK.
Some people will play AK and AA uber agressivly here, but it's very rare that they play it THIS agresssivly. Which is why I think pounding the turn is fine, but once he leads into you after capping the turn, call.

Discount KJ a fair bit too for it being an uncommon 3-bet from the BB in a 3-way pot.

I think you can narrow him down to KK being at least 50% likely on the rivver (IE not worth the chance of getting 3-bet)

[stickdude]

[ QUOTE ]
IIf you are ahead on the river, you get 1 extra BB by raising and lose 2 if you you're behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've heard this before, and now I'm curious about the math behind it... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

How certain that you're ahead would you need to be to make a raise on the river +EV (which is the only question that really matters, right)? Let's say you're think you're ahead 50% of the time (you think he would jam with KJ, and that's as likely as KK here) - with that certainity, the EV of the raise is what?

[milesdyson]

"IIf you are ahead on the river, you get 1 extra BB by raising and lose 2 if you you're behind"

the only thing about this is that it's obviously not true, because if it were true, you wouldn't call on the end.

i would just call the river bet.

[soah]

When he threebets the turn I think you should start worrying. At that point you have done everything in the world to represent AA/KK/JJ and he is telling you that he can beat it.