1/2 Live Home Game 300BB Deep against MurphProdigy

[gman06]

So I played in a live home game 6-handed w/ a few 2p2ers including bill ivey, mynameishov, and murphprodigy. We have played about 20 hands so far so I have very little info on playing styles, physical tells, etc.

Both of us start the hand with about $600 and $1/2 blinds. In MP I raise to 7 w/ QJ of diamonds. Murphprodigy is on the button and makes it 24. This is like the 4th hand already he has 3-bet preflop. Besides that, the two of us have talked poker a little and I know he has a very wide range for 3 betting preflop. If it matters, he is about a 18/15 online and very aggressive. Folds to me and I decide to call.

Flop ($51) comes 8 9 2 rainbow. I check and he checks behind after 3 seconds. My initial impression here is that he is weak and is not looking to get involved in a big pot w/ me. I am also under the general impression that he wants to avoid playing a big pot with me period.

Turn ($51) comes 8 9 2 (T), completing the rainbow and giving me the nuts. I lead for 40 after about 15 seconds and he instacalls. At this point i think a hand 77, KJ, or AJ is fairly likely. I think something like A9, T8 or even 66 looking for a cheap showdown is also possible as murph knows I am also very aggressive and would fire here w/ air a decent % of time. When he checked behind on the flop, I felt like there was a chance he flopped a set or a hand like 89, but 300bb deep I assumed he would bet here the vast majority of the time. When he instacalled the turn, I was even less convinced he had a set. For one, I feel like he would raise a set here on the turn almost always. And also, if he did decide to call on the turn, I would think he would take a minute before doing so.

The river ($131) comes 8 9 2 (T)(T). I lead for $100 after 30 seconds and he says "I'm all in" immediately after I put the chips in the pot. I study him for a minute and can't really get any physical tells-he seems fairly relaxed. I say "are you really trying to value raise me w/ A10 here?" No response. Then I say, "if I show you what I folded will you show me" and he says "ya, i'll show you" and then just stares away again. At this point, I am still pretty convinced he doesn't have a boat, but now I'm not so sure. I also begin to think T8 and T9 were possibilities, even though I still think it would be more likely that he would raise the turn. It's about 400 more for me to call.

Thoughts all on streets are appreciated, but I am most interested in hand analysis by the time we reach the river. FWIW my above assumptions are based on a few talks with murph, and these 20 hands are the first we have played together, so they could be off. He has not gotten involved in any other big pots.

[uminchu]

i think i call and lose here

[snakekilla88]

Whats murphs care level? God you are pretty deep here and I'd hate to pay off a boat so I'd be a nit and fold. He either has 23o and is gonna go BAM or he will show you a boat.

[gman06]

Murph definately cares about this money he doesn't usually play this deep, and I know he doesn't want to just throw money away live

[carnivalhobo]

fold

[snakekilla88]

so yeah fold...even though his line does not make sense
1.) hes a decent player
2.) he cares about the money

He would not do this with a lower straight when board paired as only hands that beat em call. So yeah you are up against a boat guarenteed.

[Hail Eris]

You can't assume he's always raising the hands that now beat you on earlier streets after that PF action. Look at it from his perspective. How many hands are you raising and then calling a 3-bet PF with that have a strong draw on that rainbow board?

[KingGordy]

I think preflop is pretty bad. Yeah you're deep with a suited connector but that doesn't justify crappy calls OOP, especially against a good player.

Postflop is a fold. I doubt he's bluffing, and I think value raising anything KT or worse would be really horrible on his part. AT maybe, but even that's thin.

[Clayton]

[ QUOTE ]
I think preflop is pretty bad. Yeah you're deep with a suited connector but that doesn't justify crappy calls OOP, especially against a good player.

[/ QUOTE ]

just a question, have you ever played 300bb deep in your life?

[Clayton]

lastly if murphprodigy is who i think it is, the money wouldnt mean as much, because IIRC he is a well known 2p2er and kills the 200nl games for a decent amount.