AK for the mathematically inclined...

thirddan · #1 10-24-2006, 04:45 PM

mid limit CA game

MP = very loose/mostly passive player that will bet his very strong hands and draws, but most likely not his marginal/weak holdings...i have seen him bluff but only when checked to on the button and similar...

Button = have never played with him before but he works at the casino and has been playing tight for the last two or so orbits...

Hero is UTG w/ A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Preflop: Hero raises, MP cold calls, Button 3 bets, blinds fold, Hero calls, MP calls...

Flop: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players, 10.5sb)
Hero checks, MP leads, Button calls, Hero calls...
(I considered check raising here since MP is likely to have a draw in this spot although he can have a strong made hand including all the 2pr combos...i decided to look at the turn first not sure this is correct)

Turn: J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 7bb)
Hero checks, MP leads, Button folds, Hero calls...

River: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 9bb)
Hero???

comments on all streets appreciated...

private joker · #2 10-24-2006, 05:02 PM

I like it up to the river, at which point I think bet/fold is correct (and painful). He sounds like the type to check behind hands like KQ, AQ, AJ, and other hands you beat. And he also sounds like he won't raise without at least a T, since there's a flush on board. He won't expect you to fold to a raise if you bet out, so a raise means you're toast and he might not even raise with a straight or set.

smurfitup · #3 10-24-2006, 05:20 PM

yeah, bet/fold this river against a loose-passive. you don't want him checking behind the 2pair hands that you beat and he's never raising w/ less than a straight. i cap preflop, though.. if i don't cap preflop i check-raise the flop because it's easier for me to play when i'm the aggressor and i could very well have the best hand here, but i don't mind the way you played it.

jfk · #4 10-24-2006, 06:36 PM

I'd prefer a flop check raise to a the smooth call. The only middle pair MP could hold is KQ. the only possible holding which he may have which beats you is a set of eights. More likely is that he has some sort of draw or a piece of the boards which you currently dominate. The button is the one to fear here and I'd prefer to get a sense of the strength of his hand on the cheap street. I like your hand on the flop and would push it.

Based on the way you played it your turn play was fine. Had the flop been played harder I would've lead.

I struggle with these river decisions and am curious about what others think. I go with reads and tendencies here live and am always interested to hear the prevailing wisdom here. Had I lead the flop and not been rasied I'm definitely leading out here (and folding to a raise), but as you played it and fearing a draw oriented holding from MP I may lean towards a check and call as I expect him to bet and he's not likely putting me on a holding which includes a ten.

golferbrent · #5 10-24-2006, 06:40 PM

C/C is the line here

You don't want to have to call a raise and he can't call with hardly anything that you beat.

private joker · #6 10-24-2006, 06:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]

You don't want to have to call a raise

[/ QUOTE ]

So don't.

[ QUOTE ]
and he can't call with hardly anything that you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah... Live, in a big pot, closing the action... people just groan and pay off.

I don't like c/c because he's so rarely betting a worse hand. I think he's calling with many more worse hands than he's betting.

thirddan · #7 10-24-2006, 07:27 PM

i agree with joker that given how the hand was played this is probably a river bet/fold (which is what i did and what happened)...the part of the hand that is mathematically inclined is based on a conversation i had with another poster regarding figuring out the actual correct play based on the possible hand range for MP...

on the flop i think the worst hand he will lead is AK, but he will lead with his two pair hands Q8/K8/KQ, as well as flush draws (including hands like 76s/87s) and probably JT, most likely not AJ/AT...so given that there is a possibility that check folding the river is best against this specific player, given his passive tendency and the fact that he played his hand so strongly after the preflop action and after getting called by both players it seems that he has a hand stronger than one pair (this is not exactly a friendly board against a preflop raiser and a 3bettor)...the other poster said that this hand could probably be "figured out" after a hand combo analysis, i suck at that and was wondering if its possible/useful to do such a thing?

comments?

golferbrent · #8 10-30-2006, 01:41 AM

"Nah... Live, in a big pot, closing the action..."

You just answered why a check/call is the line here. Why would you allow yourself to possibly be played off the best hand here? You gain no value by betting here... you only lose value here by being played off the potential best hand.

Abbaddabba · #9 10-30-2006, 02:33 AM

It's so painfully obvious that it isnt a check/call given the information provided.

If you're checking the river, it's because you plan on folding to a bet.

James. · #10 10-24-2006, 07:26 PM

yeah, i think i like a river donk. you are pretty protected against a raise from any hand you beat and the board has gotten pretty scary and lots of hand we are ahead of tend to check behind based on the description. even a single ten may call for fear of the flush. b/f. i like the rest.