Clemson @ Va Tech (10/26)

[droopy0021]

YTD picks posted 3-1 +8.3 units

Clemson -4 over Va Tech (-105 Pinny) 6 units (so far)

I read Iggy's pick of Clemson -5 and almost jumped out of my chair when I saw the line went down. Response to Iggy's post someone said line moved a couple times they tried to bet Clemson. I expected -6 or so.

Reasons why Clemson should be good:

1) Look at who they've played.

Va Tech wins (Nobody!): Duke, NC, Cincinnati, So Miss (minus their best RB), Northeastern
losses: BC, Ga Tech

Clemson: only loss to BC by 1.
wins: Ga Tech (dominated), Florida St (road), Wake Forest (road), NC, La Tech, Temple (yes, even Temple does count as D-1 win)

2) Va Tech will have to be one dimensional & throw. Clemson did a good job shutting down stud in Ga Tech's Calvin Johnson (Va Tech didn't fare as well vs Ga Tech). Here are Clemson's rushing stats allowed (in order of opponents, most recent first):

37-88
29-111 (Temple, best yards per carry average!!!)
31-31
29-33
22-54
38-102
37-110
34-47

Some of Va Tech's offensive rushing totals:

28-33 (BC)
27-42 (Ga Tech, they were down early & threw 53 times)
33-145 (Cincy)
38-102 (Duke)

Not a stellar rushing team, while they have had success throwing in some of those games....but still, Duke is Duke.

3) Clemson offense. Freshman Spiller is continuing to get better and provide dominant Clemoson rushing attack another option to Davis. Chansi Stuckey, WR who's been out for past 3 weeks, expected back. They did lose top guard Roman Fry for year on 3rd play vs. Ga Tech, but they still had running success Saturday w/ junior backup.

I would hope to see a game where Va Tech struggles to get to 13 and Clemson pulls away with the constants you love to wager on: running & team defense. Plus a QB (Procter) that has had some good performances and is getting his top target back.

Might be my POTY by the time Thursday rolls around. Get your bets in early!

[iggymcfly]

Honestly, I don't think matchups even matter here, because Clemson doesn't have a weakness on either side of the ball. They have one of the best defenses in the country, both passing and rushing, their running game is tremendous, and their passing game's very good too. The only thing they do poorly is special teams, which I guess works in VT's favor, but if they keep scoring TDs, VT can only score one point at a time.

The only thing that really worries me here is the line move. It seems like every time I have a POTW where the line moves dramatically in my favor, it turns out to be a big loser. Florida State vs. Troy screwed me over big time as did Oregon vs. Washington State last week. I'm thinking it's just the "big name at home should play a close game" thing, because Va. Tech looks downright terrible this year. GT and BC were the only Top 40 teams they played this year, and they lost to BC 22-3 and trailed GT 38-13 in the fourth quarter. I really don't understand what I could be missing here.

[Jibba]

I got -4, -107 on the Mansion exchange. They've really impressed me the last couple weeks. Nice analysis.

[Jaguar101]

[ QUOTE ]
Honestly, I don't think matchups even matter here, because Clemson doesn't have a weakness on either side of the ball. They have one of the best defenses in the country, both passing and rushing, their running game is tremendous, and their passing game's very good too. The only thing they do poorly is special teams, which I guess works in VT's favor, but if they keep scoring TDs, VT can only score one point at a time.

The only thing that really worries me here is the line move. It seems like every time I have a POTW where the line moves dramatically in my favor, it turns out to be a big loser. Florida State vs. Troy screwed me over big time as did Oregon vs. Washington State last week. I'm thinking it's just the "big name at home should play a close game" thing, because Va. Tech looks downright terrible this year. GT and BC were the only Top 40 teams they played this year, and they lost to BC 22-3 and trailed GT 38-13 in the fourth quarter. I really don't understand what I could be missing here.

[/ QUOTE ]

zoiks! VT is my play of the week. Clemson = Let down game on the road!

Thursday Night at VT on espn? ill take the home underdog

[droopy0021]

[quote}
zoiks! VT is my play of the week. Clemson = Let down game on the road!

Thursday Night at VT on espn? ill take the home underdog

[/ QUOTE ]

Let down is potentially a concern after a big win at home, homecoming, ESPN gameday, etc. I feel those issues are more than counteracted by reasons listed above. The line is fairly low at 4 so I'm not asking for a 3 TD win. I like constants of defense & running game to help in hostile environments or when things might not be going great.

[iggymcfly]

[ QUOTE ]

zoiks! VT is my play of the week. Clemson = Let down game on the road!

Thursday Night at VT on espn? ill take the home underdog

[/ QUOTE ]

Good, this is exactly the kind of analysis I was hoping for from the VT backers. If this is all I have to fade, I'm golden.

[rjp]

The real question: Is Clemson spending more time getting ass or practicing this week after the huge win?

[iggymcfly]

Clemson's not much for letdowns. They followed their big win over #9 (at the time) Florida State with a 52-7 pasting of North Carolina, and the week after their big comeback against Wake, they beat Temple 63-9. If there's one team I'm not worried about suffering a letdown in this situation, it's Clemson.

[jzieg2313]

Here is the best analysis I can give from the side of a huge Clemson fan. I am not a sunshine pumper and the only time I bet a Clemson game all year was for them not to cover 17 versus Wake. Iggy may remember me asking him about that game. Anyways, here are a few things I haven't seem mentioned:

1) The weather in Blacksburg on Thursday night is supposed to be cold, rainy, and windy. The only other time Clemson played in a similar environment was against Wake Forest and they trailed 17-3 going into the fourth quarter. Proctor has a tendency to float balls down the field and was picked of three times against Wake. However....

2) This will be Clemson's first game back with stud receiver Chansi Stuckey since prior to the Wake game. Proctor and Stuckey are best friends on-and-off the field and frankly Proctor has looked lost without him. He should be close to 100% on Thursday from a broken bone in his foot. He was leading receiver in the ACC last year and was first-team all conference this year. Having Stuckey will back will be a HUGE bump to the passing game.

3) Coach Bowden said today that James Davis is not reacting well from his shoulder stinger suffered on Saturday. He described him as 50/50 for Thursday. IMO, he will play but it will be in a back-up role to Spiller. Spiller has really came on the last few weeks rushing for at least a 100 yards in three of the last four games despite being a back-up. He is electric with the football, but has struggled with turnovers early this season. This is a problem that could really hurt Clemson against VT.

4) Special teams have been a nightmare for Clemson this year. We have had three fields goals blocked, allow a ton of yards to kick returners, and fumble on punt returns. The only area we have been consistent is punting but have come dangerously close to have a few blocked. VT will beat Clemson if we have these types of problems up there. The good news is everything was much improved last week versus GT. Changes on the personel of the special have improved the units and am only concerns at this point about the young punt returners fumble problems.

5. Finally, I just don't see anyway that VT is going to be able to do anything on offense versus Clemson. Our defense is really hitting its stride in its second year under a new defensive co-ordinator. His scheme emphasizes on taking away the big play and making teams drive down the field. I can't see how VT will be able to execute on a contiunous basis. Clemson ranks 4th and 7th in the nation in Total Defense and Scoring Defense, respectively.

I honestly think Clemson will win this game my two touchdowns if they can avoid big turnovers and special team mistakes. This Clemson team has shown no signs of letting down and overcame two blocked kicks returned for scores to beat FSU in Tally a week after a devastating double OT loss to BC. If special teams become a issue this game is a toss-up. Another thing working in Clemson's favor is thatthey cannot afford a another conference loss if they want a shot at the conference title. BC owns the tie breaker and they are currently tied in the standings. Clemson will not have a letdown.

I am an optimist and like what I saw out of special teams last week enough to feel they have improved. I think VT will be pumped full of emotion for the first quarter, but Clemson is just the better football team. My final prediction.

Clemson- 24
VT- 10


(Sorry for typos, I don't feel like re-reading.)

[Zag Nutz]

[ QUOTE ]
Honestly, I don't think matchups even matter here, because Clemson doesn't have a weakness on either side of the ball. They have one of the best defenses in the country, both passing and rushing, their running game is tremendous, and their passing game's very good too. The only thing they do poorly is special teams, which I guess works in VT's favor, but if they keep scoring TDs, VT can only score one point at a time.

The only thing that really worries me here is the line move. It seems like every time I have a POTW where the line moves dramatically in my favor, it turns out to be a big loser. Florida State vs. Troy screwed me over big time as did Oregon vs. Washington State last week. I'm thinking it's just the "big name at home should play a close game" thing, because Va. Tech looks downright terrible this year. GT and BC were the only Top 40 teams they played this year, and they lost to BC 22-3 and trailed GT 38-13 in the fourth quarter. I really don't understand what I could be missing here.

[/ QUOTE ]

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