Could someone PLEASE help me out?

vowels · #1 10-23-2006, 01:03 AM

Could someone help me calculate standard deviation playing at the $6.50 no-limit single-table sngs on a $650 bankroll? My bankroll's fluctated down $150 at times, but if this is normal because of standard deviation, it would make me feel better. I just have no idea how to know.

vowels · #2 10-23-2006, 04:05 AM

Even if someone knows a rule of thumb way to determine how much my bankroll can be expected to fluctuate, that would be great thanks. My ROI is at 10% through about 1000 games if that helps.

Jehaim · #3 10-23-2006, 05:02 AM

Via the FAQ of the SNG-Forum ( http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...gonew=1#UNREAD) I found this thread: http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/show...=14&fpart=1

SheridanCat · #4 10-23-2006, 10:43 AM

I can't point you to any equations or posts that will tell you exactly. But my gut feeling is that 23 buy-ins is a bad downswing, but not outside an expected norm usually.

Are you tracking your play in any way?

ETA: When I say "not outside an expected norm" I mean that you can expect these types of swings in the same way a limit hold'em player can expect to experience 100BB downswings.

vowels · #5 10-24-2006, 04:43 AM

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Are you tracking your play in any way?

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Just through Poker Stove and Shark Scope. I need to invest in Poker Tracker pretty soon, I know. I've used trial versions, but just to get my own stats. Don't really have any idea how to track my own leaks with it or anything, but there seem to be some threads here describing it.

bluefeet · #6 10-23-2006, 03:26 PM

Hi Vowels,

As SheridanCat alluded to, this downswing you're in is not completely abnormal. Buy-in drops of 20, 30, even 40+ do happen. The statistical anomaly of such an occurence is directly tide what might be your historical ROI (return). What I'm getting at is that generally the higher the buy-in, the less expected return. And the lower ones ROI, the greater chance of acheiving 'x' buy-in drops.

Sooooo, while you're in decent company, this drop could very well be indicative of a leak or two at the level you are playing.

While general 'how do I win sng's' type posts don't go well in the STT forum, I welcome & encourage you to post in our forum, specific hands or situations that you might find troubling. Be sure to check out or FAQ before you get started, for posting tips and other goodies.

Good luck to you.

-Bluefeet, STT Mod

Ps. One of our posters wrote a "ROI Simulator' application that will provide for you the likelihood of these happenings. Try searching on "+ROI +Simulator" within STT.

vowels · #7 10-24-2006, 06:40 AM

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Buy-in drops of 20, 30, even 40+ do happen.

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Thanks, this helped me.

[ QUOTE ]
While general 'how do I win sng's' type posts don't go well in the STT forum, I welcome & encourage you to post in our forum, specific hands or situations that you might find troubling.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'll do that. I'm looking into the ROI Simulator you posted about too, so thanks for mentioning it.

Tom 06 GTO · #8 10-24-2006, 10:11 AM

Don't know for sure, still feeling it out myself, but I think I'll move to the next level when I have 50 buy-ins at the new level, then back down if I hit 25 buy-ins at the higher level.

Tight and conservative... sure. But I sleep good at night and don't stress a string of losses.

smbruin22 · #9 10-23-2006, 07:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Could someone help me calculate standard deviation playing at the $6.50 no-limit single-table sngs on a $650 bankroll? My bankroll's fluctated down $150 at times, but if this is normal because of standard deviation, it would make me feel better. I just have no idea how to know.

[/ QUOTE ]

is that downswing from peak or from initial bankroll? i would say it's within reasonable limit either way.... but i think all good players closely analyze their own play even for a single SNG loss (not what you asked, but i'll volunteer it)

vowels · #10 10-24-2006, 06:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
is that downswing from peak or from initial bankroll?

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It was from peak. I started with a $200 bankroll at the $3.40s and moved up to $6.50 after my bankroll passed $650. I got to over $800 a couple weeks ago and then it bottomed out around $620 yesterday. Back up around $700 today. I consider myself tight so I find all this volatility scary.