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#1
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Best line on World Series ending in four games exactly?
So far all i've found is Bodog:
Cards win in 4: +1500 Tigers win in 4: +500 I'm wrapped up 'capping the NFL games for this week, wondered if anyone has seen anything better... Looking to hedge on Game 5 tickets... |
#2
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Re: Best line on World Series ending in four games exactly?
pinny:
cards +2247 tigers +624 |
#3
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Re: Best line on World Series ending in four games exactly?
actually cards -3.5 wins is +2380. thats the same bet unless i am crazy. what about hitting this and then betting the tigers each game?
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#4
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Re: Best line on World Series ending in four games exactly?
if you are going to bet on a tigers sweep isnt it better to bet game 1 then carry it over to game 2 then game 3 etc?
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#5
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Re: Best line on World Series ending in four games exactly?
among other things:
series sweep (pinny): +566 tigers -3.5 (same as tigers sweep - pinny): +646 |
#6
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Re: Best line on World Series ending in four games exactly?
cards sweep is up to +2762. can someone help me with if this has +ev to place and then bet on the tigers on each game?
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#7
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Re: Best line on World Series ending in four games exactly?
[ QUOTE ]
cards sweep is up to +2762. can someone help me with if this has +ev to place and then bet on the tigers on each game? [/ QUOTE ] right now it looks like a cards sweep is over a 30-1 shot. given you'll be paying juice four times if you bet the tigers each game, i doubt it will show a profit. |
#8
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Re: Best line on World Series ending in four games exactly?
[ QUOTE ]
cards sweep is up to +2762. can someone help me with if this has +ev to place and then bet on the tigers on each game? [/ QUOTE ] ok...to make the math simple, assume you bet $100 on the Cards to sweep and win $2762 Game 1...bet on Detroit at -182 need to bet at least $182 to recoop the $100 on the Cards if the Tigers win If the Cards win, it's now $282 invested Game 2 is Weaver against Kenny Rogers. I expect the line to be -180 or so Again (back of the envelope...this isn't my expertise so my number may be off by a bit). This would force you to bet $452 to recover the $282 if the Tigers win. NOw, if the Cards win, YOu're upto $734 Game 3 is Carpenter v Robertson in Busch. With the Cards winning the first two game and Carp on the mound at home, the Cards would probably favored here by a bit. I think that the Tigers would be +120 in such a match-up. Have to bet $612 on the Tigers to recoop the $734. If the Cards win, you're now upto $1,346. Game 4 would be Suppan v Bonderman in Busch. The Cards would be slight favorites if they had won the first 3 with Suppan on the mound at home. Probably +110 on the Tigers. YOu'd still have to bet $1346/1.1 . Add it all up and you have a small ev edge under my calculations, but this is highly subject to the lines and assumptions. If you can get a moneyline on all of the projected games assuming the Cards winning each previous game, you could get an answer by following the steps I set up. My guess is there is no edge. |
#9
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Re: Best line on World Series ending in four games exactly?
thanks guys.
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