NFL Week 7 Picks

[Fisherman23]

My locks for this week are:

San Diego -5 vs KC (SD)
Philadelphia -4 vs TB (Phi.)
Eagles won't lose to a mediocre team after losing to NO
Arizona -3 vs Oakland (Arizona)
Arizona looked good last week, much better than Oakland. Leinhart is coming along.
Pittsburgh -1.5 vs Atlanta (Pittsburgh)
Over/Under for the game is 37.5...I'm taking the under
Pittsburgh looked really sharp last week. I expect a low scoring game where they come out on top 13-10.

Well, that's all for now. Discuss.

[MCS]

There are NO LOCKS in the NFL. The line is never off by like six points.

I'm indifferent on the first two, lean the other way on Arizona-Oakland, and took the other side on Pittsburgh-Atlanta.

Your picks seem like the top four candidates for this week's BSP specials.

BSP=Bar Stool Pundit, which is essentially what the (non-expert) public believes about a game. They're the teams that random guys in bars will tell you are ABSOLUTE LOCKS!!!! Last year, going against the BSP picks was very profitable, starting something like 13-1. I believe natedogg is the creator of the term BSP. Search may tell you more.

[MacGuyV]

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Your picks seem like the top four candidates for this week's BSP specials.


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[vexel77]

Thats a little harsh.

[MCS]

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Thats a little harsh.

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I don't see how, and I generally think 2+2 is a pretty harsh place.

[Performify]

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I believe natedogg is the creator of the term BSP. The FAQ may tell you more.

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edit: not commenting on anything else, just saying rather than having to search for info on the term BSP its both defined and linked in the FAQ...

[adios]

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BSP=Bar Stool Pundit, which is essentially what the (non-expert) public believes about a game. They're the teams that random guys in bars will tell you are ABSOLUTE LOCKS!!!! Last year, going against the BSP picks was very profitable, starting something like 13-1. I believe natedogg is the creator of the term BSP. Search may tell you more.

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Probably being a nit here but what is the objective way to measure this sentiment? Also aren't the lines constructed to be a 50-50 proposition more or less? So if there is indeed a profitable BSP indicator then there has to be a consistent bias in the lines that using the BSP indicator exploits. I have my doubts but I could be convinced otherwise. Can we quantify the nature of this bias? Maybe I should start a thread as to why betting on pro football is beatable which is what this more or less is evolving into.

[MCS]

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Probably being a nit here but what is the objective way to measure this sentiment?

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I'm not sure what the best way is. Looking at wagerline.com may give some idea. Sometimes 80% of the "bets" will be on the same side.

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Also aren't the lines constructed to be a 50-50 proposition more or less?

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I have always thought so. However, I would hypothesize that they are sometimes shaded a bit when the book knows what side the public will love. In those cases, the non-public side will be a better bet.

[adios]

I'll give a look see to wagerline. Thanks.

[JJguy]

Speaking of BSPs lol..

GB in Miami? GB is a 5 point dog according to the lines, but every ESPN analyst has picked them to win? explain