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#1
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Turn big draw
Hi, my game is all fecked up after signing up at cardrunners [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
Villain is 25/9/2.5 over 200 hands - (I didn't have stats at the time just a read he was tight and not bad). My image is Tight but very Agro. I wanted to push but was unsure if i would fold anything he is likely to have. I put him on a Ten, JJ+ or a weak draw. Full Tilt Poker No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $0.50/$1 6 players Converter Stack sizes: UTG: $31.20 UTG+1: $87.95 CO: $103.50 Skuzzy: $98.50 SB: $23.60 BB: $102.55 Pre-flop: (6 players) Skuzzy is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $3.5</font>, Skuzzy calls, SB calls, BB folds. Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($11.5, 3 players) SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $11.5</font>, Skuzzy calls, SB folds. Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($34.5, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $25</font>, Skuzzy ??? |
#2
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Re: Dropping Down - adjusting to .50/1
You probably don't have much FE based on the turn bet. You're getting about 2.3:1 and you both would have about 60 left in an 88 dollar pot if you just called. All 15 outs are likely good. We're a 31:15 dog to hit. Clearly, we must atleast call. So it all depends on what kind of FE we think we have. I don't think we have much, so I would just call.
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#3
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Re: Turn big draw
I dont like the flop. here is some figures for you:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 53.3133 % 53.31% 00.00% { 8s6s } Hand 2: 46.6867 % 46.69% 00.00% { TT+, ATs+, KTs+, ATo+, KTo+ } He could have alot more then that - any idea on his CBet sizes? The above assumes he has 2 overs or better but he could have worse crap. Basically - you have FE vs alot of his range like weak T and overcards. Overpairs may call (they may fold too) but you are good vs them I never knew how good a flush+gutshot was [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
#4
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Re: Turn big draw
Oh yea, my advice - raise flop big to 40-0 or push (cant decid on this one. On the turn, continuing with the range above:
Board: 4s 5d Ts 3d Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 32.7506 % 32.75% 00.00% { 8s6s } Hand 2: 67.2494 % 67.25% 00.00% { TT+, ATs, ATo } Not so good here - his bet eliminates alot of his CBet range but you are getting odds here. Call |
#5
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Re: Turn big draw
flop isn't bad if we can exploit a bigger edge later.
True |
#6
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Re: Turn big draw
sometimes i raise the flop, sometimes i call... as played, i'd fold the turn. i don't like raising here, i dont think you have any FE.
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#7
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Re: Turn big draw
[ QUOTE ]
sometimes i raise the flop, sometimes i call... as played, i'd fold the turn. i don't like raising here, i dont think you have any FE. [/ QUOTE ] why would you fold? True |
#8
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Re: Turn big draw
K, thanks. I'll go with the general consensus that top pair calls here. Would it matter if this were 2/4?
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#9
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Re: Turn big draw
[ QUOTE ]
K, thanks. I'll go with the general consensus that top pair calls here. Would it matter if this were 2/4? [/ QUOTE ] i've never played 2/4, so i can't comment on that. i do think you can raise the turn if you were at least 200bb deep. |
#10
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Re: Turn big draw
[ QUOTE ]
K, thanks. I'll go with the general consensus that top pair calls here. Would it matter if this were 2/4? [/ QUOTE ] It's really opp. dependent. Obviously the higher you play, the better hand readers you'll be up against. As a general rule, I try to not make any "plays" without some kind of read before hand. This guy's preflop stats don't really tell us whether he can make a laydown or not. I certainly get the point about raising if 200bb deep, but I would be more inclined to call because our implied odds are usually beter. |
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