Daliman's NFL wong teasers: Week 6

Daliman · #1 10-12-2006, 01:19 AM

YTD:
Teased Games: 19-2 (90.48%)
2 team teases: 28-5 (84.85%)
3 Team Teases: 1-0 (100%)
4 Team teases: 6-1 (85.71%)
+4149

Well gang, as it stands, there is only one teasble game, Miami/Jets, so unless something changes, no teasers this week. None of the straddle games look good to me, so I'm not using those as it stands. Just figured I should put the thread up at least since I have been every week. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

splashpot · #2 10-12-2006, 01:30 AM

Boo...I was all excited because my Sharp Sports Betting was delivered today. I wanted to jump on this week.

Isn't a 6.5 pointer doable with Miami +2 and Detroit +1? Or is that bad for some reason?

paperchamp · #3 10-12-2006, 01:35 AM

These teasers have been saving my season. :P

Matthader · #4 10-12-2006, 08:51 AM

I don't have the book, but is Wong saying that the stats say the true line needs to be a closer matchup (ie +2,+2.5)rather than a 3 point game, for the strategy to prevail? (with the better EV)

sfwusc · #5 10-12-2006, 09:13 AM

Basicly you need to wong the true line. The true line is usually very close to pinny kickoff line.

Ok if the true line is +2.5, but currently +3 then you are better to wong the game now. It is still wongable bc the true line is +2.5, and even more EV+ bc the line is actually wrong by 0.5 pts.

Also remember that as the line moves off -110 it changes the EV as well b/c the teaser removes that part of the payout. Ex +2.5 -125 is closer to +3 than +2.5 -110. You have to consider that as well.

-SFWUSC

Performify · #6 10-12-2006, 09:52 AM

Too bad you guys couldn't grab Chicago when I posted Sunday afternoon on it, it was -9.5 early, that was a sexy teaser for the week [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

As to Wong'ing the kickoff line if it moves against you, I am in favor personally: i agree with what sfwusc/etc are saying: the profit comes from adjusting the true line beyond the two key numbers, and even if a line moves from -9.5 to -8.5 I agree that the teaser then has that value that its worth placing despite the line moving against you.

Daliman · #7 10-12-2006, 01:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Boo...I was all excited because my Sharp Sports Betting was delivered today. I wanted to jump on this week.

Isn't a 6.5 pointer doable with Miami +2 and Detroit +1? Or is that bad for some reason?

[/ QUOTE ]
Meh, it's fine as long as it's -110, but neither of those games thrill me in the first place, so I'm not going out of my way to make the bet.

splashpot · #8 10-12-2006, 01:38 AM

Is it worth jumping on if any of the +3 lines move to +2.5?

paperchamp · #9 10-12-2006, 01:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Is it worth jumping on if any of the +3 lines move to +2.5?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I don't understand. How could you be waiting for a line to move against you before you jump on it.

Daliman · #10 10-12-2006, 01:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Is it worth jumping on if any of the +3 lines move to +2.5?

[/ QUOTE ]
As far as Wong teasers go, yes, but then, of course you can get into the whole, " then why not take it now?" quandry. I;m not smart enough to answer that. I'm barely smart enough to bet these easy games.