Tips for the new sports bettor

[Performify]

I get asked this question by PM quite a bit, and thought that it wouldn't hurt to start a new thread on it, see if we can get some of the various veterans to pitch in and comment.

here are my quick thoughts from my latest PM answer. Post your own tips, or post your own questions even, and I'll pull this stuff together for inclusion in the FAQ.

Thanks in advance...

-P

two most important tips for getting started would be 1) buy Sharp Sports Betting 2) Read the forum's FAQ and all linked threads, if you haven't already.

Don't hesitate to ask questions. Especially if they're not clearly answered in the FAQ. But even if they are covered in the FAQ, you're not going to get your hand slapped, just your thread locked. Better to ask than sit in silence.

Betting even only $1-$2 a game will still give you a good introduction to sports betting and good feedback on your picks. And shouldn't break your heart if you lose $20 - $30 over a sports season. Even betting the $1 a game is the better way to go than just trying to track free picks, as it gives you an accurate record. People that don't keep acurate records often delude themselves to thinking that they're better than they are... and just that simple mechanism of betting $1 will make you appreciate the value of lineshopping, line moves, etc etc.

Don't try to bet too many games at once. Depending on the sport(s) you're handicapping, just pick a couple games a week / day and go with them. For example, a lot of people roll in to the NFL and then pick 6-8 games + totals. That's too many for someone just getting started. Concentrate on finding one, maybe two games a weekend in the NFL. Maybe 2-3 if you're in College Football, etc.

Post your picks publicly, and post a writeup on WHY you're picking that game. Discuss the merits of your picks, and other people's picks. You'll gain a lot more from this discussion process than you will from just making your picks and posting your record for the sake of "credibility".

Be better informed than Joe Public. Live, eat, breathe your sport. I believe I have a big edge in MMA because I'm a walking MMA encyclopedia and I stay current on all the news. its not just because I can break down a fight but its also because when I see a guy come in, I've seen all of his previous fights, likely multiple times, I know who he is, who he trains with, what he thinks, everything i can know about him. If you're going to handicap the NFL, or any other sport, you should be all over it the same way.

Keep your units small. if you have $100 to wager, bet $1 per game. Don't go to $2 a game until you have $200. Most people deposit $200 and wager $25 or $50 a game and go busto in a couple weeks. Start small, be smart, don't go broke. We're talking about small edges in sports betting, so you need a much better bankroll than a lot of other gambling games.

Start by creating your own lines every week before you check the next weeks' lines. i.e. in football every Sunday after the 4:00 games sit down with a blank NFL schedule for the following week and come up with what you think the spread should be for every game. Then the following week see how well you did. As you keep adjusting, this will provide you good feedback and will eventually help you identify lines that are out of whack.

Lineshopping is critical. If you only have a $100 bankroll you really can't afford to shop much, so you're going to have to pick a great book, but you could split your money across two top books to let you shop some. Mansion is nice if you're playing NFL teasers. Check the book recomendation thread in the FAQ, its probably going to be pinnacle as i think they let you bet $1 a game. Be sure and check on that too, obviously.

[crockpot]

build your bankroll with deposit bonuses

learn to arb to clear bonuses if you're a small bettor

on sites like pinny who will only offer one bonus, ever, save it for when you have enough money to get the good stuff

[AFH24]

Great post, thanks for all the awesome info!

I don't mean to hijack the thread or anything, but I was just curious as to how you know so much about MMA. I mean it doesn't seem like a sport that's too exposed to the public.

[CharlieDontSurf]

if anyone has done a bonus whoring 101 for sportsbooks(like homer's poker site thread) it would be awesome to have the link

[TheRover]

don't [censored]' hedge.
don't bet uncorrelated parlays.
don't tease unless it goes through the 3+7.

obv. there are exceptions, but for a new guy that's not important.

[Thremp]

Basic Arb strat


Pinny/Mansion


Carib
SIA
SB
VIP

Bowmans
Greek
BetJ
Skybook

To requote some previous stuff

1) Middles/Arbs/Errant lines is way easier to make money at than handicapping. IE I managed to snag some Johan Santana at 1-1 when he was really a -400 fave (probably bigger, but bridgejumping for 2 months sucks). I gain a huge edge on this bet and am able to return 4x what I'd normally return over than time frame. Middles are also hot news... Taking a freebie shot on an event is always positive. IE manage to find -5.5 -105/+6 105 at two diff books. You run an EV of whatever the probablity of the occurence times your bet amount. High variance, but its makes your day to watch a 2k-3k side come in. Arbs are a great way to clear bonus and a whole skill in and of itself for the serious person, but there are always small still arbs that are able to be picked off by anyone. IE look in the arb thread. Most of the arbs that should be posted there are not moving and should be able to get snagged. If its Wed and you're a football capper and you see a 1c arb on a bsaeball game that night. Jump on it.

Work on your statistics!!! I'd say the sportbettors that I like on this board could probably sleep through an entire minor in statistics. I for one need to work on this and build my excel skills along with it. These two skills help a great deal in deciding probablities and true lines etc.

[playersare]

[ QUOTE ]
Taking a freebie shot on an event is always positive. IE manage to find -5.5 -105/+6 105 at two diff books. You run an EV of whatever the probablity of the occurence times your bet amount. High variance, but its makes your day to watch a 2k-3k side come in.

[/ QUOTE ]
your middle example is not a "freebie shot" nor "always positive". you're spending juice on both sides and only one side can win outright. I can't think of any sport where a game would land exactly on 6 often enough to offset the 5% vig (NFL is the closest at 4% but that still makes it statistically -EV). if you're talking about hitting 2-3K sides then that's $100-150 in commission at risk - you'll need a lot of dinky penny scalps to make up for that loss.

middles are definitely +EV when executed properly, but rarely will you find anything playable right off the rack like you would a small arb. you almost always have to take a lead and follow steam across a key number.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Taking a freebie shot on an event is always positive. IE manage to find -5.5 -105/+6 105 at two diff books. You run an EV of whatever the probablity of the occurence times your bet amount. High variance, but its makes your day to watch a 2k-3k side come in.

[/ QUOTE ]
your middle example is not a "freebie shot" nor "always positive". you're spending juice on both sides and only one side can win outright. I can't think of any sport where a game would land exactly on 6 often enough to offset the 5% vig (NFL is the closest at 4% but that still makes it statistically -EV). if you're talking about hitting 2-3K sides then that's $100-150 in commission at risk - you'll need a lot of dinky penny scalps to make up for that loss.

middles are definitely +EV when executed properly, but rarely will you find anything playable right off the rack like you would a small arb. you almost always have to take a lead and follow steam across a key number.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry. I left out a + to make it more clear. A better example would be NCAA football and basketball totals where you can get a side/middle/double side across numbers frequently paying no juice.

You are right about standard lines for most sports (ML, RL, spread etc.) not being able to find a middle. But as with all arbing... steam kinda makes things happen.

[Ortho]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Taking a freebie shot on an event is always positive. IE manage to find -5.5 -105/+6 105 at two diff books. You run an EV of whatever the probablity of the occurence times your bet amount. High variance, but its makes your day to watch a 2k-3k side come in.

[/ QUOTE ]
your middle example is not a "freebie shot" nor "always positive".

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? He's -105 on one side and +105 on the other. He breaks even unless the 6 hits. What's his downside?

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
if anyone has done a bonus whoring 101 for sportsbooks(like homer's poker site thread) it would be awesome to have the link

[/ QUOTE ]

i would think homer's new arb site would have this on it. of course, it's more difficult because sportsbook bonuses take forever to clear if you're a small bettor who's not arbing.