You can't win tournaments without winning races

P0k3rNooB · #1 10-10-2006, 07:25 PM

I've heard the expression, "You can't win tournaments without winning races" many times. And with limited experience I can see how this could be true. Wouldn't that mean then, that winning tournaments is a game of luck, not a game of skill. If you can't win without being lucky, then superior play has no bearing?

Just want some thoughts of this. I personnally, rarely win races. TT vs AK. if i'm ak the ten's hold, if I'm TT, they get beat.

Not bitter, i'm just not a lucky person, but i feel as though i'm a good player. When I get someone all-in with their A8 vs my AK and the 8 gives them one pair to beat me, what am i doing wrong?

Is there any value in avoiding races altogether? Is it impossible to win if you always fold away your races?

Thanks for the ideas/theories.

MMAA · #2 10-10-2006, 08:29 PM

Tournaments do have a large luck factor. This is very true. The best player has the best potential to win of course (because of his skill), but luck makes it very difficult. Winning races is needed to win any poker tournament, period. Folding race situations is folding big opportunities to be a contender. To win, you must get involved in some way. Of course, the more skill you have, the less you need to gamble in races because your chips won't be at big risk playing smallball.

RobTheDuck · #3 10-10-2006, 08:43 PM

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I personnally, rarely win races. TT vs AK. if i'm ak the ten's hold, if I'm TT, they get beat.

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In this situation, in the long run, the TT will win just over 50% of the time, and AK will win just under 50% of the time (don't forget TT is the favorite here, so its not a true 50/50 coin flip). This is taking into account a reasonable sample size of each individual "race".

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Not bitter, i'm just not a lucky person

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Noone is a lucky or unlucky person - in the long run. In the short run, there are lots of bad players that have runs of "good luck." You should be eternally greatful for them, because without these players chasing their inside straight draws and backdoor flushes without the proper pot-odds, poker games would be a lot tougher.

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When I get someone all-in with their A8 vs my AK and the 8 gives them one pair to beat me, what am i doing wrong?

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You are worrying about it! That's what you are doing wrong.

If you get your chips in the middle with the best of it, you've done everything you can. The rest is up to the cards.

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Is there any value in avoiding races altogether?

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IMO, no. Because you are never 100% sure it is a "race" until the chips are in the pot and the cards are flipped over. If you always try to avoid races, you'll end up folding AK (because he HAS to have JJ) when he really has AQ.

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Is it impossible to win if you always fold away your races?

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Yes! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

pzhon · #4 10-10-2006, 09:05 PM

Luck and skill are not opposites.

That you have to get lucky to win does not mean your skill is meaningless. A skillful player will require less luck to win. There is much more to playing tournaments than surviving coin-tosses, or avoiding them.

tautomer · #5 10-10-2006, 09:24 PM

Skill helps in picking up the small pots and adding to your chip total. And if you're going to race, race against a smaller stack, which shouldn't be a problem if you've picked up enough small pots.

hedgie43 · #6 10-10-2006, 10:59 PM

If you are one of the better players in the tournament, you want to avoid races because you want to use your skill to have a greater advantage when you get all your chips in. Likewise, if you are one of the worst players in the tournament, you will want to "gamble" a lot.

smbruin22 · #7 10-10-2006, 11:26 PM

a few thoughts,

you don't always lose races... you just think you do. i mean, if it's a 50-50 race, you'll lose half the time.

you definitely need short-term luck to win any kind of sizable MTT.... whether you need huge luck or not depends on your skill level...

seen tons of people get huge stacks early and then absolutely give action. don't know my terminology, but i'm talking about calling big raises with mediocre hands...

if a good player has a nice run of luck in a tournament, he's cashing nicely for sure... and with even luck, he has a chance to cash. (depending on the tournament, you can pick up alot of pots without showing any cards... if that's not the case, then tighten up if time-possible and give yourself better chance in the races)

short-term, yes, luck is very important.

LOOKING AT THE OTHER REPLIES (THEY ARE GOOD ONES): you can't avoid races. for one thing, you'll be going all-in alot later on and you have no control over people calling you. be very careful about calling all-in raises though... plus, you need ALOT OF CHIPS to win these MTT's too. alot of chips = alot of races (more when the blinds get very large)

NYWalker · #8 10-11-2006, 02:57 AM

IMO, here are the factors for a good player to reach the final table:

1. Make no/minimum mistake, this is the most important factor to win tournament, I don't belive making wrong moves at the right time will always lead to FTs;

2. Being not unlucky - losing coin flip is normal since we only have 50% chance to win. But losing to bad beats (2-4 outers) eg. AA/KK lost to TT/88, AK < A8, etc, is the second biggest factor for not making the final table.

I think these are the two biggest factors to win tournaments.

Vex · #9 10-11-2006, 06:35 PM

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If you are one of the better players in the tournament, you want to avoid races because you want to use your skill to have a greater advantage when you get all your chips in. Likewise, if you are one of the worst players in the tournament, you will want to "gamble" a lot.

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Exactly. Good tournament players bust out taking bad beats a lot more than they bust out flipping, and usually if they're flipping it's because they got crippled by a bad beat.

Dire · #10 10-12-2006, 02:42 AM

I think luck is the overriding factor in final tabling, but skill is the overriding factor in getting to point where you have a chance to final table. Bad players will bust early playing for their stacks with mediocre holdings or stupid bluffs. Good players will not.

But as the blinds go up, skill becomes somewhat less important, in relation to luck. In online tournaments which generally have small stacks and fast blind levels, you will be in push mode very quickly. At this point it's just a matter of getting cards and hoping to avoid ever ending up a 4:1 dog.