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#1
10-04-2006, 12:20 PM
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Pinnacle Pick 4 (MLB)
Pick the WS winner/WS loser/ALCS loser/NLCS loser
I really don't see any other team coming out of the AL besides the Yanks Even though the Mets pitching isn't looking so hot I still think they'll win the NL. They have a great bullpen and offense. Maine is good 6 inning pitcher and with their good bullpen they could pull out a win with him. If Perez screws up they could bring in Darren Oliver as a long reliever to bridge them to the 7th inning. Anyway I'm in for these picks: Yankees/Mets/Twins/Padres +5689 Yankees/Mets/Athletics/Padres +2723 Yankees/Mets/Athletics/Cardinals +1426 Anyone else in for any? 
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#2
10-04-2006, 01:14 PM
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Re: Pinnacle Pick 4 (MLB)
It would make more sense if you included a Yankees/Mets/Twins/Cardinals pick.
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#3
10-04-2006, 01:14 PM
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Re: Pinnacle Pick 4 (MLB)
[ QUOTE ]
It would make more sense if you included a Yankees/Mets/Twins/Cardinals pick. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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#4
10-04-2006, 01:41 PM
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Re: Pinnacle Pick 4 (MLB)
Here's the thing. Never bet on the Yankees in the playoffs. Period. In fact, it is very strongly +EV to fade the Yankees, at every point possible.
Why? Because the public loves putting money on the Yankees, no matter the line. Every line based on the Yankees is signifigantly overbet, and to compensate for this, every sportsbook offers absolutely terrible odds on the Yankees, and unimaginably good odds on the teams they're facing. (probably the most signifigant +EV in the entire sports betting year). Because in a seven game series in the playoffs, the best team does not always win. Plus, parlays suck, and this is a certainly a parlay. A corollary to this rule: The more a team is hyped by ESPN, the more you should bet against that team.
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#6
10-04-2006, 04:21 PM
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Re: Pinnacle Pick 4 (MLB)
I think by betting Yanks and Mets you're seriously -ev here. Those are the two most overvalued teams, and your odds are awful.
For comparison, I have A's > yanks ALCS with every NL permutation and I'm getting 100-1 or better on each. To be fair, thats just because I'm an A's homer
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