Is it ever right to chase a backdoor low?

cowboy2579 · #1 10-02-2006, 12:46 AM

Am I am monkey for the way I played this?

Poker Stars
Limit Omaha Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
8 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (8.5SB, 4 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6.25BB, 4 players)
BB bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (9.25BB, 3 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: 11.25BB

Pnigro · #2 10-02-2006, 01:24 AM

I do it when there was a raise before the flop, at least 4 players in the pot and I got counterfeit protection, A23 for example.

cowboy2579 · #3 10-02-2006, 01:47 AM

how about here where i got the 2nd nut for protection?

Gar Pike · #4 10-02-2006, 03:41 PM

I like the PFR.

You are in position, always closing the action, and getting (I think) the right price to call single bets.

I don't think you want to raise, because if BB re-raises, callers fold and you're not betting the right price to continue.

I think your A4 is good for low, here, often enough to call the river.
You lose to AA3X, A35X, A3JX and A38X only. That's, what, around 2% of possible hands? 7.5%? I think you can rule out A38X, unless BB is maniac. You were probably fighting UTG+1 for 1/4, until the river 2.

Regards

Gar

Buzz · #5 10-02-2006, 06:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like the PFR.

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Gar - In my humble opinion, it's a terrible pre-flop raise! I mean it's simply dreadful! Hero has a pulling hand, not a pushing hand. Hero should want as many customers as possible, so that when he makes the nuts he gets paid off as much as possible on the next three betting rounds.

And he should want to get out as cheaply as possible when he misses the flop, as here.

Hero makes low when the two cards on the turn and river (listed as combinations, not permutations) are:<ul type="square">A3
A6
A7
A8
23
26
27
28
34**
36**
37*
38*
46*
47*
48*
67*
68*
78*[/list]Those with stars are the nuts. Those with double stars are the nuts for low plus a low straight. The others are the 2nd nuts.

7*12 + 6*16 + 4*12 =
96+96+48 = 240 ways to make low (out of 990 ways to get to the river). But only 4*12+8*16 = 142 of those are the nuts. And only 12+16=28 of those are to possibly scoop.

Thus Hero has about a 24% chance of making low, about a 14% chance of making the nut low, and about a 3% chance of scooping. (Don't add those all together. The 3% is included in the 14% while the 3% and 14% are both included in the 24%).

And if Hero makes low, there's a fair chance he'll get quartered or sixthed.

So after this flop, estimated very crudely, Hero figures to<ul type="square">miss low and lose 76%,
make 2nd nut low and lose ~5%
make 2nd nut low and win a quarter ~1%
make 2nd nut low and win half ~4%
make nut low and win a sixth ~1%
make nut low and win a quarter ~3%
make nut low and win half ~7%
make a low straight and win half ~1%
make a low straight and scoop ~2%[/list]Those are dismal prospects.

As it turns out, Hero lucks out and makes low. But Hero would usually do better by not chasing for runner-runner low. Even with the pre-flop raise, because it was only called by three opponents, Hero does better by not chasing. (If everybody had stayed in with trash for multiple pre-flop raises it might be a different story).

Buzz

T50_Omaha8 · #6 10-02-2006, 07:54 PM

I'm not sure how this figures in to your calculations, but A3 and 23 would give hero the nut low and the wheel, which your calculations doesn't seem to acknowledge.

Buzz · #7 10-02-2006, 08:55 PM

T-50 - Thanks for the correction.

A-3 and 2-3 should both have double stars.

I hate it when I make mistakes.

Correcting:
Hero makes low when the two cards on the turn and river (listed as combinations, not permutations) are:
<ul type="square">A3**
A6
A7
A8
23**
26
27
28
34**
36**
37*
38*
46*
47*
48*
67*
68*
78*[/list]Those with stars are the nuts. Those with double stars are the nuts for low plus a low straight. The others are the 2nd nuts.

52+116+72 = 240 ways to make low (out of 990 ways to get to the river). But only 168 of those are the nuts. And only 52 of those are to possibly scoop.

Thus Hero has about a 24% chance of making low, about an 18% chance of making the nut low, and about a 5% chance of scooping. (Don't add those all together. The 5% is included in the 18% and the 18% is included in the 24%).

Doesn't change my opinion about not raising before the flop with this hand from mid-position, and also doesn't change my opinion about not continuing with this hand after this flop.

Buzz

T50_Omaha8 · #8 10-02-2006, 09:17 PM

Ok cool. I agree that continuing will still have bleak prospects, probably even if a good deal mroe of those combinations made straights. Preflop I would probably only raise this hand on the button or just before. When additional players enter before the flop, your share of pot equity falls less with this hand than it does with most other hands, so you want to take advantage of that as much as possible.

stupoman44 · #9 10-03-2006, 11:40 AM

Without any real prospects for high (paired board, no diamonds for flush) a wheel won't win high with 6 callers seeing the flop. You are taking too great of a chance to get the runner-runner low here in the "HOPE" of getting half the pot.

Backdoor lows are great when you have good high prospects too. Otherwise, why take the risk? To me, I dumb after the flop and move on. Most of the time you are just giving your money away. I know a lot of guys will disagree, but that's me.
Stupo

portisfreak · #10 10-04-2006, 01:12 AM

Chasing backdoor lows is generally a bad idea unless the pot is HUGE (though you might end up getting quarted anyway) or if backdoor possibilities exist to aim for high as well (backdoor straights, flushes).