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#1
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Only a moron would call his stack off on AT high. stars satellite
Post 2 of the day that may draw heavy criticism. Stars 80 dollar satellite for 1k WCOOP seat, mid way through. Blinds 75/150. ave stack about 2.5k. I have 4100 going into the hand opponent about 4900. I'd been raising quite a bit in LP and this opponent had reraised me pre a number of times and i let go every time.
Dealt to hero Ad Td. Preflop: Folds to hero on CO, hero raises to 450, folds to SB, SB calls, BB folds. Flop: 2h 4h 5c SB checks, hero bets 700, SB moves all in, hero calls. First of all let me say i pretty much never make this call, ever. But heres how i broke it down. Villian would certainly reraise AJ+ pre flop as well as the vast majority of pairs, beleiving i'll lay down. A cold call from AA is possible, but if thats so he has no reason to move in here. A set almost never plays this fast. I put him on a hand like JT/QJ/KQ and i think he was to good a player to call a raise with say A5s. Results after discussion. Thoughts? |
#2
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Re: Only a moron would call his stack off on AT high. stars satellite
i usually just let this go. but i'm not good at making these calls. i could see a call maybe with AK but AT is questionable.
i agree SB likely reraises pf with AJo+ but you never know... add A2s-A5s. which could easily call a loose pf raise. pps too, and now the board offers FDs/sd/sd+pair/overpair. if i had a read on somebody, i'd rather use it my advantage in a better spot than this. its pretty marginal drawing to 6 outs at best if wrong. the real question is how often are you right to call? once we got that, we can do some math. i'd say the chances of you being right are 25%? |
#3
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Re: Only a moron would call his stack off on AT high. stars satellite
[ QUOTE ]
i usually just let this go. but i'm not good at making these calls. i could see a call maybe with AK but AT is questionable. i agree SB likely reraises pf with AJo+ but you never know... add A2s-A5s. which could easily call a loose pf raise. pps too, and now the board offers FDs/sd/sd+pair/overpair. if i had a read on somebody, i'd rather use it my advantage in a better spot than this. its pretty marginal drawing to 6 outs at best if wrong. the real question is how often are you right to call? once we got that, we can do some math. i'd say the chances of you being right are 25%? [/ QUOTE ] One thought. I see little difference here between AK and AT in this situation. I can promise he reraise AJ+ almost every time pre. |
#4
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Re: Only a moron would call his stack off on AT high. stars satellite
i dunno. this is a tough one to figure out objectively.
i think its a good spot to look for. maybe you were right to call |
#5
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Re: Only a moron would call his stack off on AT high. stars satellite
Its definately a tough situation, normally i instantly fold but i did my best ot try and add all the pieces up.
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#6
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Re: Only a moron would call his stack off on AT high. stars satellite
A bit more than 3:1 dog. chop possibilities.
You're only beating trash here, and it may be air. In that case, you're way ahead and have him dominated. Weird spot, I'm not sure I like it. I'm not sure I dislike it either. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] |
#7
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Re: Only a moron would call his stack off on AT high. stars satellite
This is bad. You're just stealing the blinds, it's ok to let it go when you get resistance. You can find better spots than this to get chips.
There's also absolutely nothing wrong with checking behind on that flop and giving yourself a chance to hit your overs + gutshot especially if you've been really active. |
#8
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Re: Only a moron would call his stack off on AT high. stars satellite
Good discussion, i'll post the results
SB showed QsJs. Turn: Td River: Kc I may have won the hand but im really not sure i made the correct play. I think a lot of your arguements are very valid. |
#9
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Re: Only a moron would call his stack off on AT high. stars satellite
I like your thinking lots and wish other players would post their thinking in the hands the way you have. It would make discussion a lot easier.
Might be a Stop n Go here. I think calling here is slim though. I think if you call here you may find 99+ and maybe 88+ here more often than we think. You obviously think your opponent is a thinking opponent and may have finally mixed his game up and not reraise PF with those pairs. I think any pair below 99 though is a reraise from him PF. I don't think your opponent is Stop n Going you with JT/QJ/KQ here either. He has got to think you are going to make a stand sometime soon against him and he would probably be an underdog to any hand you call with when you make a stand while he holds those hands. But could he of just called PF with a suited connector or something? Does our opponent smooth call PF with something like 76h and push this flop here? He probably has a good deal of fold equity (obviously you didn't fold, but none the less you must of thought of it) and if you do call he has a pretty big draw. You may even call with overs which makes his 7 and 6 good to as long as you don't hit one of your cards on the turn or river. If thats the case hes a huge favorite to win the hand (like 70% according to PS) and is getting his money in as a favorite if you do call. |
#10
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Re: Only a moron would call his stack off on AT high. stars satellite
nh, sir
i think your initial analysis was good. its hard to discount with a strong read. all we can do is say why its marginal. if you thought he was capable of this play but not with AJ+, then you must call sometimes to maximize EV of the continuation bet in the long run.... right? so, good call this time. but its thiiiiin. [HIJACK] OH MAN.!!!!!!!!!! THIS WAS POST 420.... WOOOOOOHOOOOOO!!!!! ALRIGHT.... THANKS 2+2 FOR GETTING ME THIS FAR. I JUST BUSTED 35/1410 IN THE $10... DECENT RUN. THOUGHT I WOULD NAIL IT BUT JJ < AK .... RIGGGED!!! 420.... WOOOOOHOOOO. [/HIJACK] |
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