Auburn/Buffalo - correlated parlay?

BobJoeJim · #1 09-21-2006, 01:30 AM

Auburn -41.5, o/u 48.5

With the line predicting a 45-3.5 win for Auburn, it's a classic case where a correlated parlay on the dog/under of the fave/over. I don't have any actual lean on the line, though, it feels pretty right to me. Which parlay would be better, and is it +ev? Discuss.

inside?? · #2 09-21-2006, 01:34 AM

Even though Auburn came off a big game last week I think they can pretty much call the number. It should be at least 35-0 at halftime. As long as the starters don't get yanked I would go cover/over. I do think you are correct that betting both sides should net you a profit.

NoChance · #3 09-21-2006, 01:45 AM

I took another look at that. Taking a peek at the Auburn schedule, they play @ S Carolina just 5 days later. I can't imagine the starters play long to stay fresh for a bigger game in 5 days. I do think the reserves could probably still beat up on Buffalo though.

iggymcfly · #4 09-21-2006, 01:46 AM

I actually like Buffalo and the under here. Buffalo's been at least semi-competitive this year, and Auburn's going to be absolutely sleepwalking through this one. I could see a final like 31-3 here.

Lori · #5 09-21-2006, 01:47 AM

We're really unlucky to lose if it goes under 48 and we have +41.5

Not quite so unlucky to lose if we go over 48 and -41.5 as it could be 35-14 or something

I like the unders version.

Lori

NajdorfDefense · #6 09-21-2006, 12:03 PM

I like the unders version with a game in 5 days.

Homer · #7 09-21-2006, 12:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like the unders version with a game in 5 days.

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There are books that have Tuesday CFB lines out?

LetsGetItOn · #8 09-21-2006, 12:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like the unders version with a game in 5 days.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are books that have Tuesday CFB lines out?

[/ QUOTE ]

WSEX.com has this game available now. EDIT: Nm they won't let you make this bet.

NoChance · #9 09-21-2006, 12:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like the unders version with a game in 5 days.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are books that have Tuesday CFB lines out?

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No, Auburn has a game 5 days later @ S Carolina. Starters will not play long against Buffalo. With that in mind, Lori likes the Buffalo/under bet better than the Auburn/over bet.

Thremp · #10 09-21-2006, 12:48 PM

I don't think Auburn's starters play long regardless. BTW I think Buff makes a score late to end it at like 35-7 against a combo 3rd/4th string and maybe a couple guys from the stands.