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#1
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Quite possibly the stupidest question ever asked here...
I just realized I don't know what I'm doing! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
Here's the problem: On the flop, say for example I have an OESD with 8 outs. All these probability charts have odds for "2 cards to come" and "1 card to come". 2.2:1 odds for two cards, 4.8:1 for 1 card. If I'm playing limit, even on the flop, shouldn't I always use the 1 card to come odds??? Unless the flop bet puts me all-in I'm still going to have to call a turn bet most of the time for my draw, so it would seem to me that I'm gonna need better than 8/47 = 4.875:1 to call on the flop. Am I wrong here? Or is this a poker epiphany I'm having [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] PS I realize that this is a probability question, but I thought it was a better fit in this forum. |
#2
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Re: Quite possibly the stupidest question ever asked here...
If you hit your draw on the turn, you will win more than just what is in the pot. So, even if you are only 4.8:1, you will need to include the amount you will win (implied odds) instead of just what is in the pot in calculating whether to call or not.
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#3
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Re: Quite possibly the stupidest question ever asked here...
You are correct in using the one-card-to-come odds (although previous poster is correct in that you should estimate your implied odds in figuring what your pot odds really are to call).
The two-card odds are frequently used in figuring out your pot equity, which is useful in decisions on whether it's worth "pumping the pot" with a big draw based on how many callers your raise might get. Read Small Stakes Hold'em for more info on this. |
#4
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Re: Quite possibly the stupidest question ever asked here...
Thank you. Believe it or not, I am almost through SSHE for the first time. This two-cards-to-come confusion started when I read "Winner's Guide to Low Limit Hold'em" by Ken Warren. (Before I got SSHE). I'm trying to digest SSHE, but obviously it's so full of info it's gonna take re-reading 100 times to figure it all out.
I think your post about pot equity just cleared that concept up though. If I understand this right, an OESD has roughly 30% pot equity (2.2:1). So if there are 3+ other players in the hand, it is worth pumping the pot. And two or less you just want to draw as cheaply as possible? |
#5
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Re: Quite possibly the stupidest question ever asked here...
[ QUOTE ]
I think your post about pot equity just cleared that concept up though. If I understand this right, an OESD has roughly 30% pot equity (2.2:1). So if there are 3+ other players in the hand, it is worth pumping the pot. And two or less you just want to draw as cheaply as possible? [/ QUOTE ] yep |
#6
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Re: Quite possibly the stupidest question ever asked here...
[ QUOTE ]
I think your post about pot equity just cleared that concept up though. If I understand this right, an OESD has roughly 30% pot equity (2.2:1). So if there are 3+ other players in the hand, it is worth pumping the pot. And two or less you just want to draw as cheaply as possible? [/ QUOTE ] It's a reasonable starting point, but there are some other factors to consider: [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] You might have ways to win without hitting your straight. You may have other outs, or your hand may win unimproved. [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] You might make your straight, but lose to a flush or full house or higher straight, or tie someone else. The possibility of other straights is particularly dangerous when you are only using one card. [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Trying to pump the pot may change the number of players involved. Sometimes it is better to call to keep more people in rather than to raise. [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Raising when you don't quite have the equity to justify raising for value may decrease the amount you have to pay on the turn. [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Displaying aggression before you hit may affect the amount you get paid off after you hit. Sometimes it increases the amount you get paid, and sometimes it decreases it. |
#7
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Re: Quite possibly the stupidest question ever asked here...
Thank you all for the help! It's nice to see people willing to help out the newbies. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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