9/22 Movie Betting

Thremp · #1 09-18-2006, 07:27 PM

Off hand I like Jackass under and flyboys and Fearless over. Thought I'd spawn some discussion before I did real research.

rawl316 · #2 09-18-2006, 07:36 PM

i posted in the 9/8 thread. I too like jackass under, but I'm not sure about it. I've already put a unit on flyboys over 6 mil at +109.

calling all cars · #3 09-18-2006, 07:48 PM

Hell, as long as we don't have to do any research....

Jackass seems like an under to me--the first movie did 21 mil--why would this one do more? And why is under at +147?

I like Flyboys over, having no idea how many screens it will be on.

rawl316 · #4 09-18-2006, 07:53 PM

flyboys is on 2000. jackass is on 3000

Thremp · #5 09-18-2006, 07:58 PM

So a $3000 average and a 7k average. Fearless is on 1600 screens. Yuck I hate the over now. Looks like a 5.3k average.

hrm.

rawl316 · #6 09-18-2006, 08:02 PM

I didn't touch fearless for that reason.

Mr.JR · #7 09-18-2006, 07:53 PM

I am unsure about both.
The original Jackass made $22.75 opening weekend when it was released in October 2002. I would lean towards the under, but I wouldn't bet on it.

For Flyboys, I don't like the over because it's a cast of unknows. I would rather take the over on All The Kings Men at 6M than Flyboys.

MyTurn2Raise · #8 09-18-2006, 08:04 PM

FWIW-Jackass number two has a huge buzz in the college town I live in.

I've never bet this stuff so I don't know how to properly handicap that info.

Thremp · #9 09-18-2006, 08:08 PM

Actually it seems fearless should go over pretty solidly after looking at the numbers... I could see 6k-6.5k avg.

I took the Jackass under. The buzz before with a successful TV show was much much larger and it barely cleared. This has 0 date appeal hits 1 demographic and is painfully dated. A 4k-5k avg wouldn't be outlandish.

I mean SoaP sucked hard too and it was the same type of film (Small demo).

I wanna hear Utah's feelings [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Utah · #10 09-18-2006, 09:03 PM

I have been super busy so I havent done proper analysis. However, here are my off the cuff comments.

I like Jackass 2 under but only at good odds. I got in at +150 under. Nothing is doing great and there is not reason to think this will be huge - if it was going to be big then why are they releasing in september? I get the feeling this is a "I want to see it but when it comes out on DVD" type movie. There seems to be great buzz though and it is still a hot brand. I think I read tracking is at around $19m. I say 60/40 under.

Flyboys - I love this movie and I am heavy on the over at +136 and I will keep buying if it goes up or if there is an absence of any new news pointing to the under. The reviews suck but I think the movie looks awesome and they were showing adds during the football sunday and all my friends commented they wanted to see this movie. There was an ad tonight and Mrs. Utah said that movie would interest her. Plus, I see ads every 2 seconds for this movie. I have no idea what the tracking is at but the tracking has been pretty worthless lately anyway. I give this movie 90/10 on the over.

Fearless - I think this line is pretty close with a slightly leaning towards the over. However. I took the under but simply because I got +140 or so. All Jet Li movies do awesomely and the reviews for this are strong. This is being released here after the global release and the global release was not stellar. However, if you take his worst theater average and multiply it by the number of theaters it is right on the number. I cant see why this would be worse than his last movie. Maybe I am missing something.

All the Kings men. I know nothing about this movie. However, even though the reviews suck I wouldnt bank against a movie with so many stars and such a low total. I cant see how this doesnt worse than hollywoodland, except it is competing against 2 other movies for the same crowd base.