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#1
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OT: Deal in WCOOP #2 HU
The two remaining players in the WCOOP #2 stopped play HU to arrange a deal. The two players are rambo and lunoid.
1st is $365,218.75 and 2nd is $205,646.25. However, when a deal is made there needs to be at least $30,000 left to play for. The total in play is $540865. Lee Jones throws out these numbers: Lee Jones [PokerRoom Manager]: Lunoid: $226,116 Lee Jones [PokerRoom Manager]: Rambo: $314,749 Lee Jones [PokerRoom Manager]: $30K in the middle I could really use some help figuring this out. I decided to post this here since we all already know the ICM so the steps are easy to follow. The chip counts are rambo: t9,462,239 lunoid: t1,775,261 To calculate, I went here and plugged numbers in. $365,218.75 / ($365,218.75 + $205,646.25) = 0.63976 Plug 0.63976 into Payout - 1st $205,646.25 / ($365,218.75 + $205,646.25) = 0.36024 Plug 0.36024 into Payout - 2nd Change 3rd to payout 0 Stack Sizes: 9462239 and 1775261 Yield $EV Values: 0.5956 and 0.4044 rambo's $EV is $540865 * 0.5956 = $322139.19 lunoid's $EV is $540865 * 0.4044 = $218725.81 According to the calculator, rambo got stiffed a bit by Lee Jones' proposition. What gives? |
#2
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Re: OT: Deal in WCOOP #2 HU
because if you are taking a deal with that kind of chip lead you are probably going to be taking a slight loss in ev otherwise you wouldnt be taking a deal.
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#3
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Re: OT: Deal in WCOOP #2 HU
[ QUOTE ]
because if you are taking a deal with that kind of chip lead you are probably going to be taking a slight loss in ev otherwise you wouldnt be taking a deal. [/ QUOTE ] I'm sorry but this sentence doesn't make any sense. You're assuming that "taking a deal" means that you have to give something up that is rightfully yours. "Taking a deal" just means that you find a mutually acceptable way to resolve a situation. The deal can favor either party or it can be an equitable deal where the value for each party is as close as possible to an even conclusion. ICM was designed to calculate the $ worth of tournament chip stacks for fairer dealmaking. I have no idea why Lee Jones proposal differs from ICM. Maybe he's using a different algorithm. |
#4
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Re: OT: Deal in WCOOP #2 HU
sorry i should have been more clear. The only way "i" would take a deal with these stacks heads up is if i thought i sucked and therefore should be willing to take a hit. not saying this was Lee's idea, but that its why I would think first should get less if he is interested in a deal.
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#5
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Re: OT: Deal in WCOOP #2 HU
Isn't it affected by the fact that there's 30k in the middle and the 5.6:1 chip leader has a much better chance of winning it?
According to ICM, 84.2% of the 30k (ie nearly 25k) is the chip leaders. It looks like he got quite a good deal to me - assuming he wanted a deal. |
#6
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Re: OT: Deal in WCOOP #2 HU
They dont use ICM, they use cEV if memory serves.
This was went into a few weeks back when 3 handed the CL managed to get a deal where he could go on to win the 30K or whatever left over and make more than if he didnt deal and took 1st normally. This would be better served in the MTTC forum, but yeah, general concensus is that the way they work out deal figures is no where near accurate. |
#7
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Re: OT: Deal in WCOOP #2 HU
if Lee Jones offered a deal to the short stack which would guarentee him less money than 2nd place would it wouldnt make any sense.... therefore i think the way they do it, is each player is guarenteed 2nd place money (if there were say 5 people left then each would be guarenteed 5th place money) and then the remaining $$$ is chipchopped
MC |
#8
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Re: OT: Deal in WCOOP #2 HU
The thing is, the proposition was bad, but Rambo went for 290k vs 250k, leaving 30.8k - I can't understand it...
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#9
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Re: OT: Deal in WCOOP #2 HU
If I've been playing for a bunch of hours and make it heads up and both second and first place will be a significant amount of money to me, I can easily see making a deal that is a few % off from ideal. Either I'm tired and I don't realize the few % "error" or I'm tired and I'm just relieved to have it settled rather than having to sweat it out for a while longer.
Or, maybe I simply don't understand what it's like to get to heads up in an event with this much money on the line and am talking crazy.... |
#10
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Re: OT: Deal in WCOOP #2 HU
If it was me... I'd ICM that bad boy. It's not like it's hard or anything. And it's definitely fairer than the method described above.
Correction: I'd ICM it. Then I'd compare the amount I'm getting using Lee's proposal to the ICM total and take the maximal amount. That's +EV [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] |
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