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#1
09-15-2006, 05:55 AM
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2/4 How often is this a bluff?
Preflop and flop play is questionable, but I'm mostly interested in the turn.
Assume a bad and loose villain that you don't have a read on, how often do you think this will be a bluff? If we add the possibility that villain might fold a J or pocket pair, is it worth a free showdown raise in this small pot? Poker Room skin Limit Holdem Ring game Limit: $2/$4 10 players Converter Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP2 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG (poster) checks, 3 folds, Hero calls, 3 folds, SB calls, BB (poster) checks. Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4SB, 4 players) SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, SB folds, BB calls, UTG folds. Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3BB, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, Results: Final pot: 3BB 
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#2
09-15-2006, 06:25 AM
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Re: 2/4 How often is this a bluff?
A bad and loose villain frequently won't fold a J to your turn raise. A bad and loose villain may decide to bluff this turn with a flushdraw though but given that you may already be behind and if not villain probably has quite a few outs to outdraw you i think this is a clear fold.
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#3
09-15-2006, 08:03 AM
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Re: 2/4 How often is this a bluff?
As far as the turn goes, I would assume that if he called your flop bet there is a good chance you are behind. Since he did not raise the flop, I may assume that he has a weak hand maybe a 5 or small PP or even a drawing hand that the turn may have helped. Foldable hand.
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#5
09-15-2006, 10:35 AM
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Re: 2/4 How often is this a bluff?
It's not a bluff often enough for you to worry about it in a pot that small.
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#6
09-15-2006, 11:19 AM
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Re: 2/4 How often is this a bluff?
PF is a fold or raise for me (if UTG did indeed post and not limp). Fold if the 3 behind are loose, raise if you can get them to fold and potentially the 3 blinds (poster is a blind).
As played I don't hate the flop bet but I don't think you fold everyone 1 in 4 to make it profitable. Remove the J from the flop with a 8 or an undercard, I like the bet. With 3 opponents I don't think you are good enough. As played, yea, fold the turn. Essentially you probably had to call 2 BB to win 5 BB, not good. It could be a semi-bluff, but not 40% of the time.
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#7
09-15-2006, 11:42 AM
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Re: 2/4 How often is this a bluff?
Raise pre-flop.
In a full-ring game I like the call there in early position, but here there just aren't enough players behind you who might give you an overlay to let them in. With this hand, you want either 2 players or like 6+. Limping likely gets the hand 4-handed. 3 and 5 handed are manageable, but limping is going to generally put you in the worst shape with this hand. Position is also very important as far as equity realization with this kind of marginal made hand, so it's really worth your while to get the button. I'd fold the turn. The pot is tiny.
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#8
09-15-2006, 11:49 AM
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Re: 2/4 How often is this a bluff?
PF: What is your read on the players behind you? If they are tightish I'd raise to try to get it HU with the limper.
Post PF: Fold the turn. You're looking at 2BB's to call down and win about 5BB's (depending on if the others call). He as to be bluffing quite often to make a call or raise correct here, especially since even when he is bluffing he may still have 6 outs to beat you on the river.
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#9
09-15-2006, 02:13 PM
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Re: 2/4 How often is this a bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
PF: What is your read on the players behind you? If they are tightish I'd raise to try to get it HU with the limper. [/ QUOTE ] They were loose and I decided to limp. I would have folded otherwise. I didn't realize at the moment that utg was a poster. [ QUOTE ] Post PF: Fold the turn. You're looking at 2BB's to call down and win about 5BB's (depending on if the others call). He as to be bluffing quite often to make a call or raise correct here, especially since even when he is bluffing he may still have 6 outs to beat you on the river. [/ QUOTE ] I realize that the pot is small and folded, but I'm mostly interested in how often this may be a bluff, because it could be applied in other bigger pots.
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#10
09-15-2006, 02:44 PM
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Re: 2/4 How often is this a bluff?
This is rarely (1 in 25) a naked bluff. He has something and best case scenario it is a flush draw, likely with at least one over for 12 outs, but likely 2 overs for 15 outs. Probable case, he has a K, J or 5 and you have 2 outs.
How often is this a flush semi-bluff, well that is read dependent, against my normal opponent 1 in 15. Why so low, bluffing in small pots is not a good idea. You bet into 3 opponents so you should have something.
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